Motivation

The scale of fake news and misinformation is constantly growing in our hyperconnected world, which may have grave economic and societal consequences. For example, fake news and rumors can manipulate elections, threaten public health, and hype up (or down) investors leading to artificial market disturbances and instability. Designing appropriate social and economic policies in order to combat fake news and to improve the resilience of individuals, institutions, and markets to misinformation calls for a systematic investigation into the underlying cognitive, psychological, and institutional determinants of the belief in falsehoods and resistance to factual information.

Project Aims

Mass misinformation is not a new concept. However, the unprecedented pace of scientific progress and the rise of social media have transformed misinformation in the 21st century, earning it a new name, “fake news.” In particular, the internet and social media have transformed the dissemination of (mis)information by allowing individuals and third parties to spread their own news. Therefore, there is a nascent literature investigating misinformation and fake news. Still, not enough is known about the mechanisms behind the processing of information and the ability to discern correct and fake news. These mechanisms are the building blocks of opinion formation and warrant a comprehensive analysis, which is the aim of our project. More precisely, our project investigates the role of cognitive ability, overconfidence, and motivated reasoning (due to partisanship, prior issue opinions, and ideology) in the processing of (fake) news. In addition, we will analyze their role in updating from new information and the evolution of opinions. To that aim, we combine theoretical modeling with a large-scale survey and experimental study. In our study, participants take a news quiz, which provides a measure of their ability to discern correct and false news. Guided by our theoretical model, we use survey and experimental data to understand (i) how an individual’s ability to discern correct and fake news relates to cognitive ability, motivated reasoning, and overconfidence; and (ii) how these factors affect updating from new information.

Funding

Funded by the Austrian National Bank (OeNB) Anniversary Fund in the amount of €250.000.

Team

Melis Kartal (principal investigator), Edoardo Cefala, Sylvia Kritzinger, Jean-Robert Tyran 

Results

Once the collection of data and its analysis are complete, we will disseminate the results here.