EXPLAIN THE PROCESS ON HOW TO SPOT A TREND (HUMSS_MCT12- Ia-b-2)

At the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

1. identify what are the following; trend analysis, trend spotting, trend spotter, and projecting trends

2. identify the five ways on how to spot a trend.

In the previous lesson, you have defined trend, megatrend, and microtrend. You have also learned that trend doesn’t only reflect on fashion, pop culture, and entertainment but in all dimensions. Moreover, you have learned that megatrend and microtrend are the two classifications of trend. In this lesson, we are going to identify the process on how to spot a trend. Alright! You can do this. To unlock this lesson, you need to perform first the next activity.

"Trends never turn on a dime. Reversals build slowly. The first sharp dip always finds buyers and the first sharp rise always finds sellers." – Alan Farley

It is important for us to understand that trends do not go straight up or straight down. They tend to zigzag back and forth from a new high back to a lower high, then to a higher high and go down. Thus, it has no consistency on its own manner.

Trend is considered as a collage of present circumstances that extend current patterns into the future (Cornish, 2004 and Canton, 2006). However, an examination of these phenomena and speculation on the likely impact they will have in the future is called trend analysis. In addition, the practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern, or trend, in the information is also known as trend analysis.

Sanders, Soper, and Rotwell (2002) stated that "an examination of trends phenomena and speculation on its likely impact in the future is called as trends analysis." Moreover, trends analysis grants "future vision." It allows populations to be proactive in response to future events. Furthermore, trends analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting to spot a pattern in the information. It will be used in predicting future events or estimating uncertain events in the past, and distracting present events just to promote new ones.
The process of identifying of trends is called trend spotting. Rehn and Lindkvist (2013) define trend spotting as attempting to see the future in the present situation. On the other hand, the people who notice and report on new fashions, activities that people are starting to do is called as trend spotter. Conversely, an act that assumes the future that will be a logical extension of the past is defined as act of projecting trends. Thus, projecting trends will be based from the past, present and what will be in the future regardless of defined and undefined factors that contribute from its changes or development.

FIVE WAYS TO SPOT AND CAPITALIZE ON TRENDS

1. Anticipate change

The constant thing in this world is change. Assume that change is coming and look for it. Change can be either social -- as in the rise of socially responsible business -- or technological, as exemplified by the growth of gadgets. Sometimes change can be both. The great example of it is social media.

Don’t forget the cyclical, up-down, back-forth nature of business while you are searching. Change doesn’t have to be permanent to provide a viable opportunity for business creation and growth. Remember, the nature of trends has no consistency.

2. See it coming

The basic tools of the trend tracker are seeing, hearing, smelling, tasting and touching. In other words, every sense that can be used to get information about the world should be employed in seeing for upcoming changes. Start by reading and watching everything you can. That should include general interest news outlets, trade publications, blogs, government reports and casual conversations overheard in elevators. Be updated of problems people are talking about. Be proactive as it comes.

3. Distinguish between short-lived fads and long-term trends

Strive to identify big changes that create lasting problems that many customers will be happy to pay to solve. The idea is to wind up with a business model in which revenues are larger than costs for a long period, not one that limps by on slender profit margins before competitors take even that away. To filter out fads, talk to the potential buyers of the solution to the problem. The more frustrated they are, the more likely they are to pay for a solution. In extreme cases, potential customers may be willing to fund the development of solutions. With this, it is not hard for you to win them. Another way around is by talking to experts.

4. Make sure your solutions are realistic

Again, it’s relevant to talk to target customers. Make sure the solution you envision is one you can realistically provide with features. Costs must establish alternatives will compare favourably. It is not all about your desire product to proposed, it’s about their problem to be solved. What you can do conveniently and inexpensively may be of little value to customers. The sweet spot for a trend-exploiting start-up is at the intersection of business capability and customer’s need.

5. Create a competitive advantage

To get the biggest benefit, be the first doer. Be courageous! It is uncommon for any single entrepreneur to be the only one who sees an opportunity. Most will hesitate and not move at all. Many others will not move quickly enough. Lasting competitive advantage usually goes to the first entrant to stake a market out and capture customer loyalty. Those who come later usually have to settle for slimmer profits and more competition. Being first is not sufficient, of course! Business history is besieged with well-financed start-ups directed by well-regarded leaders who committed too much, too early and in the wrong place. So test before committing. Again, look for revenues that overwhelm costs and customers who are overjoyed. Fantastic! This time, I believe that you are now ready to perform the succeeding activities. You can now start.

SHORT QUIZ TO BE ANNOUNCED!

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