Research

Working Papers

Labour Scarcity and Productivity: Insights from the Last Nordic Plague (Draft coming soon!)

I study the relationship between labour scarcity and productivity in the context of a 1710s plague outbreak. While higher wages should have led to an export contraction, exports grew after plagued regions shifted into capital-intensive products. Using a Ricardian model, I show that productivity growth in capital-intensive sectors drove this export boom. I argue that labour scarcity provides incentives for more capital-intensive modes of production which permit faster productivity growth. Corroborating this point, I interpret serfdom as a labour mobility restriction, prohibiting labour scarcity from equalising across sectors.

Presented at: Annual Clio (2024), UEA Summer School (2024), Berlin QSE Seminar (2024), RES Easter School (2024), UEA (2023)

Networks in Trade - Evidence from the Legacy of the Hanseatic League (with Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch)
(Revise & Resubmit at Journal of International Economics)

We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and traders in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on former Hansa routes is within predictions from a gravity framework. However, traders continue to shape the composition of trade: Hanseats' trade within the former network displays significant persistence for centuries. We thus identify trading capital at the level of individual traders. Our paper highlights the long-run stability of commercial and social networks, which persist when other economic effects do not.

Presented at: World Clio (2023), UEA (2022)

AI and Services-Led Growth: Evidence from Indian Job Adverts  (with Alex Copestake, Ashley Pople, and Katherine Stapleton)

We document near-exponential growth in the demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related skills in India's services sector since 2016, using a new dataset of online vacancies from its largest jobs website. This coincides with the take-off in developed countries, and is driven by the largest firms and high-tech clusters. We evaluate the impact of demand for AI skills on establishment-level non-AI postings, using a shift-share design that exploits variation in exposure to new AI inventions. We find negative effects on posting volumes and wage offers, particularly for highly skilled managerial and professional occupations, non-routine work, and analytical and communication tasks.

Presented at: EITI (2024), EEA Meeting (2023)
Media Coverage: The Economist IMF Research Perspectives Ideas for India Ideas for India (Hindi)  

Selected Work in Progress

Industrial Policy and the East Asian Growth Miracle (with Réka Juhász, Nathan Lane, and Kristen Yang)

Automation Technology and Services Offshoring (with Katherine Stapleton and Kristen Yang)