Research

Job Market Paper

Labour Scarcity and Productivity: Insights from the Last Nordic Plague (Draft coming soon!)   

I study the causal impact of labour scarcity on productivity growth, a key driver of long-run economic growth. Exploiting a natural experiment from a 1710s plague outbreak in Northern Europe, I show that plagued regions shift into capital-intensive exports and see an export expansion. Using rich port-level trade data and a Ricardian model, I trace this shift to productivity growth driven by capital deepening. While population levels recover within four decades, the productivity and trade effects persist for almost a century, suggesting long-run changes in comparative advantage. My findings imply that labour scarcity can induce productivity-enhancing reallocation.

Winner of the 2025 FREIT-EIIT Award for Best Graduate Paper in Empirical Trade and of the 2025 Best Paper Award Economic and Social History 

Publications

Networks in Trade - Evidence from the Legacy of the Hanseatic League (with Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch)  (previously my Master's Thesis)

We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and traders in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on former Hansa routes is within predictions from a gravity framework. However, traders continue to shape the composition of trade: Hanseats' trade within the former network displays significant persistence for centuries. We thus identify trading capital at the level of individual traders. Our paper highlights the long-run stability of commercial and social networks, which persist when other economic effects do not.

Journal of International Economics, September 2025, Vol. 157

Working Papers

AI and Services-Led Growth: Evidence from Indian Job Adverts  (with Alex Copestake, Ashley Pople, and Katherine Stapleton)

We document near-exponential growth in the demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related skills in India's services sector since 2016, using a new dataset of online vacancies from its largest jobs website. This coincides with the take-off in developed countries, and is driven by the largest firms and high-tech clusters. We evaluate the impact of demand for AI skills on establishment-level non-AI postings, using a shift-share design that exploits variation in exposure to new AI inventions. We find negative effects on posting volumes and wage offers, particularly for highly skilled managerial and professional occupations, non-routine work, and analytical and communication tasks.

Revise & Resubmit at the Journal of Human Resources
Media Coverage: The Economist, IMF Research Perspectives, Ideas for India, Ideas for India (Hindi)  

Selected Work in Progress

Industrial Policy and the East Asian Growth Miracle (with Réka Juhász, Nathan Lane, and Kristen Yang)

Automation Technology and Services Offshoring (with Katherine Stapleton and Kristen Yang)