Abstract: In addition to the general issue that fewer interpersonal contacts reduce the speed of contagion, less attention has been paid to the spatial configuration of such contacts. In Italy, Covid-19 severely affected the most industrialized area of the country, where the network of commuting flows is particularly dense. We investigate the relationship between workers’ mobility and the diffusion of the disease by computing, for each municipality, the intensive and extensive margins of commuting flows and by measuring excess mortality over the period January–May 2020. We find that if commuting patterns were 90% of those observed in the data, Italy would have suffered approximately 2300 fewer fatalities during the first pandemic cycle.

Abstract: Within the much broader framework of global interest, the dilemma concerning the real impact of mode of transport on the spread of COVID-19 has been a priority for transport stakeholders and policy-makers. How dangerous is it to move around a certain territory? Does the danger depend on the mode of transport? By considering a novel and detailed dataset at the level of local labour markets, we analysed the spatial association between the propensity to use public transport and excess mortality in Italy attributable to the spread of COVID-19. We found that places characterised by larger commuting flows exhibit higher excess mortality, but observed no significant spatial association between excess mortality and transit usage. Our results were obtained by considering a wide range of heterogeneity in the estimation of quantile regressions across a variety of specifications. Although we do not provide a definitive answer concerning the risk associated with transit use, our analysis suggests that mobility, not modal choice, should be considered a main driver of the contagion.

Abstract: The development of high-speed rail (HSR) has had a notable impact on modal market shares on the routes on which its services have been implemented. This article analyses whether the HSR expansion in Italy has led to a modal shift from motorway to HSR. We empirically test i) whether HSR openings adjacent to motorway sectors have reduced the total km travelled by light vehicles on these sectors during the period 2001-2017; and ii) whether this reduction has been persistent or even more evident after the opening of on-track competition between the incumbent Trenitalia and the new operator Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori (Italo), which entered the HS passenger market in 2012. To do so, we carried out a generalized difference-in-differences estimation, using a unique panel dataset that exploits the heterogeneous traffic data within all tolled motorway sectors in a quasi-experimental setting. Our findings reveal that neither HSR openings nor the opening of on-track competition led to a modal shift from motorway to HSR services, as the two transport modes are non-competing. Conversely, HSR expansion had a slightly positive impact on motorway traffic. The extent to which HSR demand could be the result of a modal shift from motorways is a relevant issue in any cost-benefit analysis of HSR investments.

Abstract: At the end of 2005, Autostrade per l'Italia (ASPI) and the Italian traffic police progressively deployed along the Italian tolled motorway network an average speed enforcement system, named Safety Tutor, able to determine the average speed of vehicles over a long section to encourage drivers to comply with speed limits and improve safety. This article empirically tests the extent to which Safety Tutor led to a reduction in both total and fatal accidents on Italian highways during the period of 2001-2017. To do so, we carried out a generalized difference-in-differences estimation using a unique panel dataset that exploits the heterogeneous accident data within all tolled motorway sectors in a quasi-experimental setting. To deal with the potential endogeneity of the non-random placement of Safety Tutor sites, we utilized an instrumental variable strategy by using the network of motorway sectors managed by ASPI and its controlled concessionaires from 2005 onwards (i.e., when the technology was available) as an instrument to predict Safety Tutor adoption. We found that a 10 percentage points increase in Safety Tutor coverage led to an average reduction in total accidents  of 3.9%, whereas there is no evidence of a significant causal effect of Safety Tutor in reducing fatal accidents.

Abstract: We quantify the effect of public transportation fare subsidies on air quality by exploiting the sharp discontinuity in the cost of ridership introduced by a policy intervention. We identify this effect by taking advantage of four months of massive discounts for transit services introduced in Spain on September 1, 2022, as part of the national plan to tackle the global energy crisis. Across pollutants and specifications, we find no evidence that low-cost or free-of-charge public transportation financing schemes have improved air quality. Our results reveal that measures aimed at reducing transit prices may fail to achieve the claimed environmental benefits through a modal shift from private to collective modes of transport, which therefore suggests that massive fare discounts may not represent an efficient allocation of public funds.

Abstract: We exploit the exogenous demand shock in the aviation sector that result from the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate how airlines respond in terms of pricing strategies. By using monthly fares data for flights operated within the EU-27 member states over the period 2017-2022 and by quantifying the intensity of the pandemic cycles through a stringency index, we estimate price regressions at the route-airline level. Our findings reveal that the demand drop has prompted a general reduction in fares, meaning that low markups have been more relevant than operating with higher costs during the health crisis. By analyzing heterogeneous price responses to demand shocks of different intensities as determined by various route and airline characteristics, we show that the regulations in the form of public service obligations and state aid programmes for airlines have not helped travelers benefit from lower prices.