The hires rate according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been trending down recently, with its latest reading at 3.6% in January. Similarly, Vanguard data showed a general slowdown in hiring in 2023, prior to the recent increase.
Notes: The hires rate refers to new hires as a share of existing employees. The Vanguard hires rate is calculated at the firm level and is based on new enrollments in 401(k) retirement plans administered by Vanguard divided by the number of all active 401(k) plan participants in a given month. New hires are recorded based on their hire date rather than their retirement plan enrollment date. The last 12 months of the Vanguard hires series are adjusted upward to account for an empirically observed lag in 401(k) enrollment times for new hires. The hires rate series is seasonally adjusted using the X-13ARIMA method. The data set represents a balanced sample of firms of all sizes across all sectors of the economy that offer retirement plans, which Vanguard has administered since January 2003. JOLTS data are based on a nationally representative survey of 21,000 nonfarm business and government establishments. The gray bars indicate economic recessions, as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Our Vanguard 401(k) data indicate that hiring rates for the bottom third of workers, who make below $55,000 per year, are generally higher than those for higher-income workers. This is consistent with JOLTS data showing greater labor market churn in lower-wage sectors, such as leisure and hospitality and retail trade.
In addition, the hires rate for the bottom income tercile of workers has gained momentum over the last few months for which we have data. In contrast, hiring for the middle and top third of employees declined throughout 2023. (Incomes for Vanguard retirement plan participants generally skew higher than those for the general population.) Thus, the decline in the overall hiring rate in 2023 appears to have been driven by a slowdown in hiring among middle- and higher-income workers.
Strong demand for lower-income workers has coincided with faster growth in wages for that group than for most higher-income workers. During the onset of the pandemic, lower-income workers concentrated in face-to-face services sectors were more at risk of layoffs than higher-income earners who had more flexibility to work remotely.
Ultimately, however, a combination of elevated consumer demand from fiscal stimulus and many face-to-face services sector workers transitioning to other industries led to worker shortages being the most severe in lower-income occupations, which drove wages for that work significantly higher. At the same time, many higher-income workers accepted slower wage growth as a tradeoff for remote work flexibility. These dynamics have all contributed to the faster rise in wages for lower-income workers.1
Abandoning strategic equity allocations may be most tempting at the end of central bank tightening cycles when cash yields reach their most attractive levels. Historically however, exiting the equity market to invest in cash at these inflection points has not provided durable capital appreciation in the longer term. Investors may need to exercise discipline in maintaining target equity weights to achieve long-term return targets.
Much like a dampener is used to remove energy from mechanical systems, tight financial conditions have been the tool utilized by central banks to slow global growth. Dampeners of growth have diverged as 1) monetary policy cycles have varied in response to regional inflation, and 2) credit tightening has emerged as a potentially powerful drag in some economies. Their uncertain impacts have left many investors sitting idly by as opportunities in risk assets feel few and far between.
Top Section Notes: Data from 1950 through 2023. Chart shows the R-squared of forward returns of varying time horizons regressed on CAPE ratios. Past correlations are not indicative of future correlations, which may vary. For illustrative purposes only.
Middle Section Notes: Chart shows growth of $10,000 through investments in the S&P 500 and two scenarios in which capital is reallocated to 3-month Treasury Bills on the date of the final hike in the prior two Fed hiking cycles. The results are based on the historical returns of the indices used and no representation is made that an investor will achieve similar results. The example provided does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees and expenses which would reduce an investor's return. The results will vary based on market conditions.
The Tokyo Price Index (TOPIX) is a metric for stock prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). A capitalization-weighted index, TOPIX lists all firms that have been determined to be part of the "first section" of the TSE.
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
Equity securities are more volatile than bonds and subject to greater risks. Foreign and emerging markets investments may be more volatile and less liquid than investments in US securities and are subject to the risks of currency fluctuations and adverse economic or political developments. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity. The currency market affords investors a substantial degree of leverage. This leverage presents the potential for substantial profits but also entails a high degree of risk including the risk that losses may be similarly substantial. Currency fluctuations will also affect the value of an investment.
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Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income for some investors may be subject to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).
US Treasuries are a debt obligations backed by the United States government and its interest payments are exempt from state and local taxes. However, interest payments are not exempt from federal taxes.
Gold is a specialized, concentrated asset that comes with unique risks. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Investments that concentrate on a relatively narrow market sector face the risk of higher share-price volatility.
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Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
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