Working papers

The Spillovers of LSAPs on Banks in the Euro Area (link to paper)

(with Marco Graziano (UNIL) and Andreas Tischbirek (Fed Board))

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We find that the Federal Reserve affects credit provision in the euro area through a channel that we refer to as the “international bank capital channel” of unconventional monetary policy. In response to an LSAP shock that leads to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, the Treasury positions of euro area banks shrink, capital ratios worsen, and banks that are less well capitalized contract their lending relative to banks that are better capitalized. Our results are consistent with an important role of revaluation effects, imperfect risk hedging, and credit as an adjustment margin for banks in the proximity of regulatory capital constraints.

Labour market flows, unemployment, and the Phillips curve (link to paper)

(with Enisse Kharroubi (Bank for International Settlements)

We provide empirical evidence for the United States that labour market flows contain valuable information for subsequent wage and price inflation. This information extends beyond standard measures of labour market or broader economic slack. Specifically, we build a new unemployment gap measure, computed as the difference between the unemployment rate that would prevail in light of current labour market transitions – henceforth flow-based unemployment – and the actual unemployment rate – akin to a stock-based measure of unemployment. We show that this unemployment gap measure predicts subsequent wage and price pressures, with the latter typically easing (intensifying) when flow-based unemployment rises (falls) relative to the stock-based measure. In a second step, we develop a search-and-matching model with nominal wage rigidities and persistent (non i.i.d.) shocks. In this model, firms facing wage rigidities can still freely bargain over wages with new hires. As a result, firms' bargaining power becomes endogenous and moves with stock- and flow-based unemployment, through the job-finding probability. Consistent with the empirical evidence, we show that a larger unemployment gap, either because of a lower job-finding probability or a lower unemployment rate, is typically followed by lower wage and price pressures, provided the job-finding probability displays enough persistence.

Work in progress

The global nonlinear inflation shocks

(with Ozge Akinci (Fed NY, CEPR), Gianluca Benigno (UNIL, CEPR), Hunter Clark (Fed NY))

What role do global shocks play in the recent surge in inflation, and does the size of those shocks matter? This paper examines the transmission mechanisms of global supply chain disruptions, global demand pressures, and oil supply shocks on consumer, producer, and core inflation across 22 advanced economies. Employing local projection methods at the individual country, principal component, and panel levels, we first establish that global supply chain pressures were the dominant driver of the 2021–2022 inflation surge, with global demand playing a lesser but still notable role. We then extend the analysis to allow for nonlinear effects by testing whether large shocks have disproportionate inflationary consequences. Our central finding is that the inflation response to global shocks is nonlinear for supply chain disruptions but approximately linear for oil and demand shocks. Large supply chain shocks generate significantly more persistent inflationary dynamics—especially for core inflation—consistent with second-round wage and expectation effects that are only triggered once disruptions exceed a critical threshold. A nonlinear historical decomposition confirms that accounting for the extreme size of pandemic- era supply shocks substantially reduces the unexplained share of the 2021–2022 inflation episode.

Monetary policy and climate change

This paper introduces a Climate Awareness Index (CAI) to gauge climate change awareness among central bankers, analyzing over 18,000 speeches. Notably, there’s a significant rise in climate-related keywords, particularly from 2020 onwards. Given the influential role of central bank communication in shaping market expectations, the study explores the impact of central bank speeches on financial markets, focusing on potential shifts in lending behavior in response to climate change communication. The project aims to categorize central bank communication on climate change into “cheap talk” and “green talk,” examining how the latter influences commercial bank lending behaviour and, consequently, the economy.

Workshops, Seminars & Conferences

• 2026 American Economic Association, United States, January 2026

• Gerzensee Alumni Conference, Switzerland, November 2025

• 15th BIS Consultative Council for the Americas Annual Research Conference on Labour markets (co-author), Mexico, October 2025

• Department of Economics Research Days, Switzerland, September 2025

• 40th EEA Congress, France, August 2025

• Macro PhD Workshop, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, March 2025

• Bank of Italy Conference I 36th SUERF Colloquium (co-author), Italy, November 2024

• SNB Research Conference 2024 (poster, co-author), Swiss National Bank, Switzerland, October 2024

• BIS Research Meeting, Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland, May 2024

• Young Swiss Economists Meeting 2024, KOF at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, February 2024

• Gerzensee Alumni Conference, Study Center Gerzensee, Switzerland, November 2023

• 16th UNITO - CCA PhD Workshop in Economics, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy, November 2023 

• Department of Economics Research Days, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, September 2023

• Macro PhD Workshop, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, May 2023

• RViE Macro Research Cluster, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, December 2022