Work in progress

International spillovers of LSAPs through leveraged financial intermediaries

(with Marco Graziano (UNIL) and Andreas Tischbirek (Fed Board))

This paper examines the international spillovers of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and tightening policies on European banks that hold significant amounts of US Treasuries. We investigate the impact on the banks balance sheets by analyzing how the policies alter incentives to hold US treasuries through price and exchange rate changes and how they affect bank’s net worth, credit provision, and US Treasury exposure. We plan to develop a model showing that these holdings imply a novel international channel of transmission for US quantitative easing and tightening to the European economy.

Inflation and supply chain pressure

(with Ozge Akinci (Fed NY, CEPR), Gianluca Benigno (UNIL, CEPR), Hunter Clark (Fed NY))

This study investigates the post-pandemic rise in inflation, linking it to a positive demand shock meeting limited supply. Utilizing the Global Supply Chain Pressures Index (GSCPI), oil supply, and a global activity proxy as demand factors, the project identifies supply and demand shocks globally, evaluating their impact on PPI and CPI inflation. Results suggest that supply chain shocks after 2020 have a lasting effect on prices, challenging the perception of temporary inflation. Additionally, the study highlights trade openness and size as key factors predicting variations in price responses across countries.

Labour market flows, unemployment, and the Phillips curve

(with Enisse Kharroubi (Bank for International Settlements)

We show that labour market flows contain valuable information for predicting wage and price inflation in the United States. We propose a new unemployment gap — the difference between a flow-based unemployment rate, implied by current labour market transitions, and the observed unemployment rate. A positive gap signals easing inflationary pressures; a negative gap signals rising pressures. We rationalize these findings in a search-and-matching model with nominal wage rigidities, where firms’ bargaining power depends on both unemployment stocks and flows.

Workshops, Seminars & Conferences

• Macro PhD Workshop, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, March 2025

• Bank of Italy Conference I 36th SUERF Colloquium (co-author), Italy, November 2024

• SNB Research Conference 2024 (poster, co-author), Swiss National Bank, Switzerland, October 2024

• BIS Research Meeting, Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland, May 2024

• Young Swiss Economists Meeting 2024, KOF at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, February 2024

• Gerzensee Alumni Conference, Study Center Gerzensee, Switzerland, November 2023

• 16th UNITO - CCA PhD Workshop in Economics, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy, November 2023 

• Department of Economics Research Days, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, September 2023

• Macro PhD Workshop, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, May 2023

• RViE Macro Research Cluster, University of Lausanne, Switzerland, December 2022