Embedded Files
Job Market Paper
Job Market Paper
Thinking Twice About Children
The Role of Lifetime Exposure to Climate Change
with Saverio Lenzi
A growing number of individuals report reconsidering parenthood because of climate change, yet the underlying economic and behavioral mechanisms remain poorly understood. This paper studies how climate risk shapes fertility decisions through two channels: by tightening household resources and by increasing concern about the future conditions children would face. We combine new European survey data with a structural life-cycle model of fertility under uncertainty. The empirical evidence indicates that climate change has entered fertility decision-making: about one quarter of respondents report that it affects whether they want children, and 29% state that they would prefer larger families in its absence. Motivated by these patterns, we develop a tractable life-cycle model in which climate risk enters both the budget constraint and the value of parenthood. The model shows that climate change raises the threshold for childbearing, leading households to delay births, remain childless, or reduce completed fertility, with effects that are strongest among individuals who are both more exposed and more climate-anxious. These mechanisms deliver testable implications linking fertility choices to climate exposure and beliefs.
Presentations (including scheduled): AféPop (May 2026), ESPE (June 2026), WCERE (July 2026), CEPR Climate Change (July 2026).
Working Papers
Working Papers
Hotter Climate, Frozen Fertility?
Climate Anxiety and Fertility Decisions in Europe
Concerns about climate change are increasingly cited as a reason to reconsider childbearing, but evidence on realized fertility remains limited. I assemble a panel of 182 European subnational regions over 2001-2024 linking total fertility rates to survey-based climate concern, socio-economic controls, and high-frequency local weather shocks. To address endogeneity, I instrument climate concern with local weather anomalies selected from a high-dimensional candidate set using an orthogonalized Post-LASSO IV procedure. A one-standard deviation increase in within-region climate concern is associated with a 2.3 percent decline in the total fertility rate, about 35 fewer births per 1,000 women. The effect emerges only in the last decade and is strongest in Northern Europe and in more educated regions. I provide evidence against the role of potential confounders including leading physiological, economic, or mobility channels. Climate change may therefore affect fertility not only through material damages, but also by reshaping expectations about the future.
Presentations: AlpPop Conference (January 2026).
Climate concern has risen sharply
Climate concern has risen sharply
The effect emerges in the last decade
The effect emerges in the last decade
Alternative channels do not explain it
Alternative channels do not explain it
Watching The Fire
The Effects of Cameras on Wildfires in California
with Abbie Boatwright, Ashley Langer, Bhowmik Sujey Soori, Derek Lemoine, and Kayla Layden
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of camera-based remote monitoring systems as tools to better match firefighting personnel to wildfire risks. We formally demonstrate how information from camera systems affects personnel allocations and the risk of catastrophic wildfires, and we provide an empirically implementable expression for the ex ante value of a camera system. Combining detailed data on wildfires in California with a unique dataset of camera locations and installation dates within a quantile regression framework, we find that cameras increase the firefighting personnel initially assigned to the riskiest fires and subsequently reduce the need to sustain high personnel allocations and reduce the area burned by the largest fires.
Presentations: Consortium for Environmentally Resilient Business (CERB) Symposium (November 2024), CERB Symposium (November 2025).
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