Marina Sforza (Steininger)

Die volkswirtschaftlichen Kosten der Sanktionen in Bezug auf Russland - joint work with L. Flach, M. Larch, Y. Yotov, M. Braml, J. Gröschl, F. Teti, G. Schneider, IHK Düsseldorf, 2020

Media Coverage

Die Studie befasst sich mit den Auswirkungen der Russland-Sanktionen auf den Außenhandel und die Wertschöpfung Deutschlands, Russlands und der Europäischen Union (EU). Neben einer deskriptiven Analyse werden mithilfe ökonometrischer Methoden die Effekte der verschiedenen Sanktionsregime (EU, Russland, USA) auf den bilateralen Handel mit Russland geschätzt. Die daraus gewonnenen Erkenntnisse werden in eine Simulationsanalyse gespeist, um die Wohlfahrtskosten nach Ländern, Regionen und Sektoren zu bestimmen. Eine Unternehmensbefragung ergänzt die Studie um qualitative Aspekte, mit denen die Betroffenheit deutscher Unternehmen durch die Sanktionen ergänzt werden kann.

Globalisierung im Wandel: Chancen und Herausforderungen für die bayerische Wirtschaft - with M. Braml, L. Flach, F. Teti Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria, January 2020 (DE, EN)

Bayern hat im besonderen Maße von der Globalisierung in den letzten Jahrzehnten profitiert. Die bayerische Konjunktur hat jedoch jüngst einen Gang zurückgeschaltet. Die Dynamik hat abgenommen und die Produktion kommt spürbar ins Stocken. Zu den schlechteren Geschäftsaussichten beigetragen hat nicht zuletzt das außenwirtschaftliche Umfeld. Diese Studie untersucht die Determinanten der Globalisierungserfolge der bayerischen Wirtschaft und deren Veränderungen.

Evaluation of the Implementation of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and its Member States and the Republic of Korea - with M. Braml, G. Felbermayr, M. Larch, C.W. Nam, Y. Yotov, European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade, 2018 (DE, EN)

This project conducts an evaluation of the EU's free trade agreement with Korea that took effect in July 2011. The agreement is seen as the most modern and deepest agreement currently in existence. In addition to reductions in tariffs, it covers a broad range of non-tariff trade constraints and features settlements covering environmental, social and labour-law related rules. As part of a consortium, the ifo Institute is responsible for quantitative economic analyses over a total period of 14 months. The goal is to clarify whether and to what degree the agreement has stimulated trade in goods and services between the EU and Korea; and to assess its impact on income, prices, employment structure, CO2 emissions and further variables. The analysis will be conducted in three stages: firstly, a descriptive data analysis will be carried out. This will anticipate the econometric design of the study by comparing developments in trade prior to and after the agreement was implemented in terms of affected (EU-Korea) and unaffected (e.g. EU-Japan) bilateral relations. In a second step disaggregated trade data will be formally analysed using a gravity model. Other influence factors and the effect of the agreement on exports and imports can be calculated individually using this model. In the third and final step the econometric results will be used to identify, with the help of the ifo trade model, reductions in trade costs due to the agreement; and to calculate its effects on overall trade, and general equilibrium outcomes such as GDP, CO2 emissions, and labor reallocation. The simulation is important because it is the only way to investigate trade diversion effects.

Ökonomische Auswirkungen des Brexit für Bayern und Oberbayern - (joint work with G. Felbermayr, R. Lehmann
Impulse für die Wirtschaftspolitik, 01-45, IHK für München und Oberbayern, München, 2018 (EN)

Das Vereinigte Königreich ist ein bedeutender Absatzmarkt für deutsche Unternehmen, denn zwischen 2008 und 2017 lag der durchschnittliche Anteil des Vereinigten Königreichs an den gesamtdeutschen Warenausfuhren bei circa 7% bzw. 85 Mrd. Euro. Lediglich in die USA, nach Frankreich und China wurde mehr exportiert. Die deutschen Güter- und Dienstleistungsexporte in das Vereinigte Königreich betrugen mehr als 3,5% des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Diese Studie ermittelt mithilfe ökonometrischer Methoden die Auswirkungen verschiedener Brexit-Szenarien: Durch einen Brexit ist das Vereinigte Königreich selbst am stärksten von einem Austritt betroffen (Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung durch den Brexit in Höhe von 1,73% bzw. rund 40,3 Mrd. Euro). Im Vergleich dazu fallen die Effekte für Deutschland geringer aus. Sollte es zu einem harten Brexit kommen, dürfte die Wirtschaftsleistung Deutschlands um 0,23% bzw. 6,8 Mrd. Euro niedriger liegen. Durch ein Freihandelsabkommen könnten die Verluste minimiert werden. Die Einbußen für Deutschland und die EU-27 belaufen sich auf 0,10% (2,9 Mrd. Euro) bzw. 0,11% (14,3 Mrd. Euro). Im innereuropäischen Vergleich gehört Deutschland zu jenen Ländern, die relativ am stärksten verlieren. Die exportstarke bayerische Wirtschaft

Regionalanalyse zu den ökonomischen Auswirkungen des Brexit auf das Bundesland Hessen - (joint work with G. Felbermayr, R. Lehmann Industrie- und Handelskammer Frankfurt am Main; April 2018 (DE, EN)

In Folge des Brexit dürfte die reale Wirtschaftsleistung pro Kopf in Deutschland, je nach unterstelltem Szenario, niedriger ausfallen als im Status quo. Hinter diesem gesamtdeutschen Durchschnittseffekt verbergen sich jedoch höchst heterogene Auswirkungen des Austritts auf die deutschen Bundesländer. Auf dem Bundesland Hessen liegt dabei ein besonderes Augenmerk, da in Frankfurt am Main das Herz des deutschen Finanzsektors zu finden ist. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass Hessen und die ökonomisch bedeutende Metropolregion Frankfurt-Rhein-Main von einem Austritt des Vereinigten Königreichs aus der Europäischen Union weniger stark betroffen sein dürften als Deutschland insgesamt. Im Falle eines „harten Brexit“ wird das preisbereinigte Bruttoinlandsprodukt von Hessen um -0,17% geringer ausfallen als im Basisszenario (zum Vergleich Deutschland: -0,23%). Die Effekte für die Metropolregion fallen in ähnlicher Größenordnung zu Hessen aus. Sollte hingegen ein ambitioniertes Freihandelsabkommen vereinbart werden („weicher Brexit“), dann verringern sich die Effekte für Hessen und die Metropolregion auf -0,08% im Vergleich zur Ausgangslage (Deutschland: -0,10%). Maßgeblich für die geringere Betroffenheit Hessens sind wirtschaftsstrukturelle Unterschiede. Einerseits vereint das Verarbeitende Gewerbe, jener Bereich, der am stärksten von einem Ausstieg des Vereinigten Königreichs betroffen wäre, in Hessen einen geringeren Wertschöpfungsanteil auf sich als in Deutschland insgesamt. Andererseits sind die Finanz-, Versicherungs- und Unternehmensdienstleister, welche durch den Brexit sogar gewinnen dürften, traditionell stärker in Hessen vertreten als im gesamtdeutschen Durchschnitt.

Quantitative Tools for the Analysis of Global Governance Issues (QUANTAGG)
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft, January 2016 - December 2018

The advance of globalization has spurred global value chains. Countries are increasingly interconnected via trade, not only in final but also in intermediate goods. The World Trade Organisation has not yet been able to adapt its rules to 21st century trade and many countries are negotiating deep regional free trade agreements like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) instead as a result. These developments raise important questions of international cooperation. What are the welfare effects of free trade agreements like TTIP? Is a bilateral investment treaty with the US favourable for the EU? Can regional climate policy be successfully implemented when trade costs are falling and investors are mobile? To address these questions, the ifo Institute has set up the research group QUANTAGG. This group aims to analyse the consequences of various international trade, investment and climate policies with the help of quantitative models and empirical datasets.

Impact of Tariff Reductions and Liberalization of Pro-Curement Markets on the EU and US
Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, June 2018 - October 2018 (DE, EN)

The White House and the incumbent US president have been hitting the headlines since the beginning of Donald Trump’s term in office. In the process, this has focused media attention on protectionism and the threat of measures turning away from free trade and multilateral agreements. This study offers an alternative, constructive approach: instead of worst-case scenarios, it examines the potential effects of trade liberalization measures between the EU and the US. Specifically, the effects of a reciprocal tariff reduction between the US and the EU on industrial products and, in a subsequent scenario, the reduction of import tariffs in the agricultural sector between the two trading partners are examined. The study also examines the consequences of liberalising the US public procurement market. Trade cost-cutting measures are simulated and the resulting consequences are analysed for Germany, the EU, the USA and third countries.

Impact of the Free Trade Section of an Association Agreement between the EU and Mercosur on the German Economy
German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy; April 2017 – October 2017

The quantitative analyses in the study will be carried out using the ifo Trade Model. This is a modern CGE (Computational General Equilibrium) model that has been developed at the ifo Institute in recent years and is based on the New Quantitative Trade Theory Models (NQTT-Ms). An important advantage of this new generation of models compared to traditional simulation models, e.g. Mirage, GTAP, or others, is that the estimation of parameters (primarily trade elasticities and trade cost effects of the agreement in question) is performed on the same data used as the basis for the simulation.

The Implications of a Protectionist US Trade Policy - (joint work with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin)
Bertelsmann Stiftung, April 2017 – September 2017

ifo Forschungsberichte 89, ifo Institute, 2017
ifo Forschungsberichte 88, ifo Institut, 2017

The study yields a clear policy recommendation: namely that the USA should not persevere with its threat to implement a protectionist trade policy for its own sake. At the same time, seeking a new form of cooperation with its key trade partners like China, Germany and other NAFTA members would be a far more sensible strategy. First steps in this direction have been taken, for example, by founding a"Global Forum" on the worldwide reduction of steel overcapacities and dumping. Such new cooperation platforms will be increasingly necessary and would also offer existing international institutions like the WTO important new remits. The USA is the architect of the global, rule-based, multilateral trading system. The country has systematically promoted the three pillars of the international economic system - the World Bank, the Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organisation. It is time for the world's other leading industrial nation to support the USA in its endeavours in order to avoid a turnaround in global free trade. Responsibility for this task particularly falls to the beneficiaries of post-war US policy like Germany, Europe and Japan.

Structural Analysis and Outlook of Baden-Württemberg as a Business Location by National and International Comparison - (joint work with G. Felbermayr, I. Heiland, B. Boockmann) The Baden-Württemberg Ministery of Economic Affairs, Labour and Residential Construction; January 2017 - July 2017

Prosperity in Baden-Württemberg is generated by manufacturing to a larger extent than in other German Länder or countries. Although employment is falling in the long term, this development is more than offset by rising productivity in terms of value creation. In view of intensive research activity in manufacturing, technica-related productivity in Baden-Württemberg can be expected to increase in the fu-ture. In terms of development in productivity, the service sector lags way behind manufacturing. At the same time, however, new jobs are largely created in services. Within the sector there are segments that are experiencing growth in added value, but little increase in employment (ICT services), as well as segments with a strong employment dynamic, but little growth in added value (business-related services). This phenomenon can be explained by the fact that the productivity of new workers in segments with employment growth is below average. As a result of rising productivity in manufacturing and relatively moderate increases in wage costs, the price competitiveness of Baden-Württemberg's economy has in-creased significantly over the last decade.

Press release — 07.10.2019
ifo Institute: Germany and Europe Benefit from Devaluation of the Yuan (FR, DE)

A devaluation of China’s currency during the trade war would lead to more prosperity for Germany, Europe, and the rest of the world. This is the result of a new study by the ifo Institute. Should the yuan devalue by 10 percent, Germany would gain EUR 413 million in real income; if the devaluation were 20 percent, this would go up to as much as EUR 499 million annually, according to calculations from the ifo trade model. The yuan has lost roughly 13 percent of its value against the US dollar since spring 2018.

Press release — 23.08.2019
ifo Institute: Hard Brexit Would Hit Ireland Hardest (EN, FR)

A hard Brexit would hit the Irish economy hardest. According to figures from the ifo Institute, prosperity levels would fall by 8.16 percent in Ireland, by 5.23 percent in Luxembourg, and by 5.19 percent in Malta in the event of a hard Brexit. In the United Kingdom itself, prosperity would fall by 2.76 percent.

Press release — 13.08.2019
ifo Institute: The United States Could Benefit from the Trade War, However... (EN, FR)

The additional tariffs on US imports from China threatened by US President Donald Trump would negatively impact China, while giving the US, Europe, and the UK moderate advantages. However, Chinese retaliatory tariffs could turn the US advantage into a disadvantage, while somewhat reducing China’s losses. These retaliatory measures would lead to even greater advantages for the UK and the EU. This is the result of the ifo Institute’s latest calculations.

Press release — 24.02.2019
ifo Institute: China and US to loose big if more tariffs are applied (EN, FR)

If the US was to apply its 25 percent tariffs on all products from China, that country could lose up to € 171.3 billion in exports to the US, while the US exports to China would contract by € 51 billion if China also applies 25 percent on all imports. That is the result of a new report by ifo researchers Gabriel Felbermayr and Marina Steininger for the EconPol Europe network.