Peer Effects in Tenant Delinquency: Evidence From a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Public Housing (with Nadia Campaniello)
Abstract
Tenant delinquency is widespread in public housing, yet little is known about whether nonpayment spreads through local social interactions. This paper studies how exposure to neighbors’ delinquency affects a tenant’s probability of arrears. Using novel administrative panel data covering the universe of public-housing tenants in Turin, Italy (2002–2022), we exploit institutional allocation rules that generate quasi-random assignment to residential buildings. This setting provides plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to neighbors, which we use to estimate peer effects in payment behavior. We find that 10 p.p. increase in the building-level delinquency rate raises an individual tenant’s probability of delinquency by 3 p.p. The effect is stronger among tenants who share a common language and in areas with higher social-housing density. It is also larger when exposed neighbors come from countries characterized by weaker rule-compliance norms. We then examine how tenants respond to formal enforcement. Exploiting the staggered timing of eviction procedures across buildings, we estimate whether exposure to a neighbor’s eviction affects individual payment behavior. This allows us to assess whether enforcement dampens peer effects through deterrence or instead generates unintended spillovers in payment behavior.
Disaffection at Work: Employee’s Reaction to Job Related Information (with Beatrice Braut and Vincenzo Mollisi)
Abstract
Nowadays, workers’ disaffection toward their jobs is a widespread issue that generates high social costs through lower firm productivity and reduced workers’ well-being. Understanding the determinants of this phenomenon, and how information can influence it, can benefit both firms’ performance and employees’ welfare. We employ a survey experiment conducted on a representative sample of workers in Italy and France to test whether exposure to topics referring to “Social Justice and Activism” or “Work and Employment Benefits” affects workers’ satisfaction and moral attitudes. We find that exposure to the Activism treatment significantly increases respondents’ agreement with statements reflecting cooperation, solidarity, and social justice values. The treatment raises the probability of agreement with community-oriented statements by about 0.16 points and with fairness-related items by 0.09 points. It also increases support for redistributive policies, such as a hypothetical law requiring employers to compensate employees for non-remote work. Overall, messages centered on activism and social justice foster broader prosocial orientations, while those emphasizing work ethics strengthen cooperative intentions within the workplace.
The Impact of Tier 2 Migration Policy in the UK: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (with Simona Fiore and Giuseppe Pignataro)
Abstract
Since 2011, UK migration policy has aimed to reduce net migration by restricting non-EEA inflows, notably through the Tier 2 visa cap of 20,700 and an increased emphasis on job offers in shortage occupations. This paper analyzes the effects of these policy changes using a novel dataset that merges administrative labor force data with Certificate of Sponsorship and minimum salary information. We adopt a difference-in-differences identification strategy to exploit an exogenous policy shock in the selection of migrant workers. Results for 2009–2013 show that migrants admitted under shortage-based criteria are not drawn from the top of the skill distribution, while evidence from 2014–2018 indicates a subsequent increase in average salaries within shortage occupations.
The Gold Rush in AI and Robotics Patenting Activity. Do Innovation Systems have a Role? (with Giovanni Guidetti and Riccardo Leoncini), Revise and Resubmit, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, February 2026
WP: ArXiv
Abstract
This paper studies patenting trends in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics from 1980 to 2019. We introduce a novel distinction between traditional robotics and robotics embedding AI functionalities. Using patent data and a time-series econometric approach, we examine whether these domains share common long-run dynamics and how their trajectories differ across major innovation systems. Three main findings emerge. First, patenting activity in core AI, traditional robots, and AI-enhanced robots follows distinct trajectories, with AI-enhanced robotics accelerating sharply from the early 2010s. Second, structural breaks occur predominantly after 2010, indicating an acceleration in the technological dynamics associated with AI diffusion. Third, long-run relationships between AI and robotics vary systematically across countries: China exhibits strong integration between core AI and AI-enhanced robots, alongside a substantial contribution from universities and the public sector, whereas the United States displays a more market-oriented patenting structure and weaker integration between AI and robots. Europe, Japan, and South Korea show intermediate patterns.
Training and innovation in Italian Manufacturing Firms (with Davide Antonioli, Elisa Chioatto, Giovanni Guidetti, Riccardo Leoncini), Revise and Resubmit, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, February 2026
WP: ArXiv
Abstract
This paper analyses how firms' skill development strategies affect their propensity to introduce innovation. We develop an adjustment-cost framework that links human capital theory and institutionalist and evolutionary approaches, considering innovation as an activity that entails costs in labour adjustment arising either from the training activities of workers or the recruitment of skilled employees. Using a two-wave panel of Italian manufacturing firms observed in 2017-2018 and 2019-2020, we analyse firms' adoption of total, product, process, and circular innovation as a function of internal training practices and of external skills acquisition. Overall, the empirical analysis confirms the expected positive relationship between training and innovation, while also revealing important nuances in the workforce upskilling strategies required for different types of innovation. Moreover, while training activities and skills development are essential across all forms of innovation, our findings indicate that internal training is particularly effective in supporting the implementation of circular innovations. By contrast, external recruitment appears to be consistently necessary whenever innovations are introduced, regardless of their type.
Gender Segregation: Analysis across Sectoral-Dominance in the UK Labour Market (with Riccardo Leoncini and Annalivia Polselli), Empirical Economics, 67, 2289–2343 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02611-1
WP: arXiv
Abstract
This paper aims to evaluate how changing patterns of sectoral gender segregation play a role in accounting for women’s employment contracts and wages in the UK between 2005 and 2020. We then study wage differentials in gender-specific dominated sectors. We found that the propensity of women to be distributed differently across sectors is a major factor contributing to explaining the differences in wages and contract opportunities. Hence, the disproportion of women in female-dominated sectors implies contractual features and lower wages typical of that sector, on average, for all workers. This difference is primarily explained by “persistent discriminatory constraints”, while human capital-related characteristics play a minor role. However, wage differentials would shrink if workers had the same potential and residual wages as men in male-dominated sectors. Moreover, this does not happen at the top of the wage distribution, where wage differentials among women working in female-dominated sectors are always more pronounced than those among men.
The Influence of Skill-based Policies on the Immigrant Selection Process, Economia Politica, 39, 595–621 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-022-00264-w
Abstract
Understanding the type of immigration flow that maximises the expected economic benefits in the destination countries is one of the main debated topics both in the economic literature and in policy agendas worldwide. In recent years, governments have developed regulations of migration flows by adopting some form of selective immigration policy based on either human capital criteria or skill needs. Admission policies in the destination countries are likely to affect the direction and magnitude of selection as well as the socio-economic performance of immigrants. However, the relationship between quality-selective policy and immigrants’ skill composition remains largely unexplored. This paper aims to survey the existing literature on how selective-immigration policies shape the characteristics of immigrants from the receiving-country perspective. First, it introduces the main route of admissions and the theoretical models to understand how the direction of selection works; second, it discusses the theoretical models; third, it reviews the empirical works. A final concluding section briefly points out the actual findings and future avenues of work.
Assessing selection patterns and wage differentials of high-skilled migrants. Evidence from Italian graduates working abroad (with Sara Binassi, Giovanni Guidetti, and Giulio Pedrini), Quaderni di Economia del Lavoro, 113/2021, pp 83-115, DOI: 10.3280/QUA2021-113005
Abstract
This paper aims at investigating the phenomenon of graduates' migration from an OECD country at a microeconomic level to offer insight into the scholarly debate on migration decisions of high-skilled workers living in a developed country. By merging data on employment conditions of Italian graduates with the results of an ad-hoc survey on Italian graduates working abroad, the paper assesses the selectivity of migration choices, the wage premium associated with migration decision on their earnings, and the determinants of the earning function for those graduates who work abroad. Results suggest a high complexity of both the selection and the earning function of high-skilled migrants coming from a developed country.
Economic Approaches on Migration and Inequality In: Jodhka, S.S., Rehbein, B. (eds) Global Handbook of Inequality. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97417-6_19-1
Abstract
The disparity in income, wealth, well-being, labour opportunities, and resources across countries has long been considered a driver of international migration. However, the rise in inequality due to globalisation, demographic shifts, and technological advancements has underscored the intricate interplay between inequality and migration. This chapter focuses on the economic literature exploring the nexus between migration and economic inequality. The chapter is divided into two main sections. The first section explores some effects of migration in the destination countries by looking at the composition of flows and the impact on labour market outcomes. The second part of the chapter deals with the link between migration and inequality through the lens of globalisation by considering some issues, such as remittances, brain drain, and technology. A concluding section briefly summarises key findings and outlines potential avenues for future research.
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence (with Riccardo Leoncini), Chapter in Civil Responsibility in the Digital Age, Cacucci Editore, 2022
Economia. Quesiti, (with Riccardo Leoncini and Giulio Pedrini), Giappichelli, Torino, Quarta edizione, Torino, 2019, pp. 172 (COLLANA DI ECONOMIA)
Emigration from the Madonie Area: A Statistical Analysis (with Giuseppe Dino), in Dezio, C., D’Armento, S., Kercuku, A., Moscarelli, R., Pessina, G., Silva, B., & Vendemmia, B. (2021), Inner Areas in Italy. A testbed for interpreting and designing marginal territories, ListLab
This study examines internal migration and depopulation in the Madonie area of Sicily, part of Italy’s National Strategy for Internal Areas (SNAI). ISTAT data show a 10% population decline between 2008 and 2018, with further decreases expected. Using a survey carried out in 2018, we find that 60.9% of respondents would be willing to return to their hometown under unchanged work or study conditions, suggesting that depopulation is driven less by job availability than by broader territorial and living conditions. The analysis also reveals low trust in political institutions and weak perceptions of local and regional governance. Overall, the findings highlight the absence of circular mobility, which could otherwise help reduce brain drain and support local development, while the post-pandemic context offers an opportunity to address growing territorial inequalities.