Research

Publications

Unconditional Cash Transfers and Maternal Employment: Evidence from the Baby's First Years Study

Sauval, M., Duncan, G., Gennetian, L., Magnuson, K., Fox, N., Noble, K., Yoshikawa, H. (2024). Journal of Public Economics, 236. 105159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105159 

[Earlier version: SSRN Working Paper]

Abstract: How the labor force participation of mothers of young children responds to unconditioned cash support remains an open question in policy debates. Using data from Baby’s First Years, a large-scale randomized controlled study, we generate new estimates of the impact of an unconditional monthly cash transfer on maternal employment behavior through a child’s first four years of life. We find no overall statistically detectable differences in whether mothers participated in the paid workforce or on total household earnings. Receipt of the cash transfer appears to have reduced hours of maternal work during the height of the pandemic in 2020–21.


Presented at: All-California Labor Economics Conference, APPAM, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, University of Helsinki, Meeting of the Finnish Economic Association

"Unconditional Cash and Breastfeeding, Child Care and Maternal Employment Among Families with Young Children Residing in Poverty"

Stilwell, L., Morales-Gracia, M.,  Magnuson, K., Gennetian, L., Sauval, M., Fox, N., Halpern-Meekin, S., Noble, K., Yoshikawa, H.  (2024). Social Service Review, 98(2).

Abstract: In this paper, we use data from the first randomized controlled trial of early childhood poverty reduction in the United States (Baby's First Years), which enables us to assess the combination of breastfeeding, nonparental care, and maternal employment. Specifically, we examine the impact of an unconditional, predictable monthly cash transfer offered to 1,000 mothers residing in poverty at the birth of their child. We take advantage of monthly data to examine the cash gifts’ effects on breastfeeding initiation and length, use of nonparental care, and maternal employment over their infant’s first year of life. In addition, with data on mothers’ intentions at time of birth, we examine the alignment of breastfeeding and employment behavior with mothers’ stated intentions at birth. Finally, we examine whether impacts on breastfeeding and maternal employment differ by whether the infant was the mother’s first birth, mother’s employment status during pregnancy, and presence of other adults in the household. 

Presented at: University of Helsinki 

"Understanding Heterogeneity in the Impact of Public Preschool Programs

Watts, T. W., Jenkins, J. M., Dodge, K. A., Carr, R. C., Sauval, M., Bai, Y., Escueta, M., Duer, J., Ladd, H., Muschkin, C., Peisner-Feinberg, E., & Ananat, E. (2023). Understanding heterogeneity in the impact of public preschool programs. Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, 87(4).

Abstract: We examine the North Carolina Pre-K Program (NC Pre-K) to test the hypothesis that observed variation in effects resulting from exposure to the program can be attributed to interactions with other environmental factors that occur before, during, or after the pre-k year. We examine student outcomes in fifth grade and test interaction effects between NC’s level of investment in public pre-k and moderating factors.  Estimates indicate that a child’s exposure to higher NC Pre-K funding was positively associated with that child’s academic achievement six years later. We found no effect on special education placement or grade retention. NC Pre-K funding effects on achievement were positive for all subgroups tested, and statistically significant for most. However, they were larger for children exposed to more disadvantaged environments either before or after the pre-k experience, consistent with a compensatory model where pre-k provides a buffer against the adverse effects of prior negative environmental experiences and protection against the effects of future adverse experiences. 

Presented at: SRCD Biennial Meeting 

“Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Child Care Sector: Evidence from North Carolina” 

Zhang, Q., Sauval, M., Jenkins, J. (2023).  Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the child care sector: Evidence from North Carolina. Early Childhood Research Quarterly, 62(1), 17-30.  

[Earlier version: EdWorkingPaper No 21-371]

Abstract: This study provides a comprehensive, census-level evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the county child care market in a large and diverse state, North Carolina, and the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic on different types of providers and communities. We use county-level panel data from 2016 to 2020 and a difference-in-differences design to isolate the effects of the pandemic from unobservable county and seasonal trends in enrollments and closures. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic reduced county-level child care enrollment by 40% and the number of providers by 2%. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the family child care sector experienced not only less severe reductions in enrollment and closures than center providers, but a small growth in the number of family providers. Declines in enrollment were most substantial for preschool-aged children. There was a significant drop in the number of 5-star providers and an increase in the number of lower-quality providers. Provider closures were more concentrated in communities with a higher percentage of Hispanic residents. Higher-SES communities experienced larger drops in enrollment as well as provider closures. Implications for child development and future research and policies are discussed.

Working Papers

Pre-K Enrollment and Teaching Environments in North Carolina Elementary Schools. [draft available soon]

Muschkin, C., Ladd, H., Sauval, M. 

Abstract: Prior research suggests that some high-quality preschool programs are successful in generating significant initial academic gains and long-term benefits for students as they progress through school. This study examines one of the mechanisms through which North Carolina’s statewide pre-K program (NC Pre-K) may generate such benefits: improvements in the teaching environments of the elementary schools in which NC Pre-K graduates enroll. We find that an increased presence of former NC Pre-K students in elementary schools over the period 2004-2018 was associated with better teachers’ perceptions of different dimensions of their teaching environment and increased teacher and principal retention. Our findings suggest that pre-K expansion policies may benefit the entire school community. 


Presented at: Meeting of the Consortium on Early Childhood Intervention Impact

Unintended Consequences of Expanding Pre-Kindergarten: The Effects of North Carolina's Pre-K Program on the Childcare Market.  [draft available soon]

Sauval, M. 

Presented at: Meeting of the Consortium on Early Childhood Intervention Impact, All-UC Demography Conference, APPAM, AEFP 

Work in Progress

(with Marcelo Bergolo, Matias Giaccobasso, and Mariana Zerpa)


(with Jade Jenkins, Tyler Watts, and Ken Dodge)


(with Hanna Pesola and Matti Sarvimäki)

Other publications

Factura Electronica y Cumplimiento Tributario: Evidencia a partir de un enfoque cuasi-experimental (“Electronic Tax Invoicing and Tax Compliance: Evidence for Uruguay from a Quasi-Experimental Approach”)

Bérgolo, M., Ceni, R., & Sauval, M. (2018). Factura electrónica y cumplimiento tributario: Evidencia a partir de un enfoque cuasi-experimental. Inter-American Development Bank. Discussion Papers Series, IDB-DP-561. 2018

Este trabajo analiza la introducción del régimen de Documentación Fiscal Electrónica en Uruguay. A partir de los datos de los registros administrativos de la Dirección General de Rentas y explotando el diseño de entradas de las empresas a este régimen, analizamos cuál es el efecto del mismo en el carácter intensivo y extensivo del pago de Impuesto al Valor Agregado a través de un estudio de eventos. Los principales resultados son efectos positivos del 3,7% en el monto de los pagos en los seis meses posteriores a la entrada, no habiendo efectos en el margen extensivo. 

“Obstacles to Economic Empowerment? Limiting Factors to Women’s Job-Placement and Employment Quality: The Chilean Case”   (in Spanish)

Espino, A., & Sauval, M. (2016). ¿Frenos al empoderamiento económico? Factores que limitan la inserción laboral y la calidad del empleo de las mujeres: el caso chileno. Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, 77, 305-360. 

This paper explains the differences in men and women’s labor market outcomes. We distinguish between intrinsic and imposed gender constraints on women’s participation in the labor market in Chile. Using data from the 2011 survey “Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional”, we apply probability models to five stages of labor trajectories, decomposing gender gaps at each stage. Results confirm that women’s labor supply is restricted by the existence of cultural barriers associated with the traditional sexual division of labor. This hinders their job market performance, leading to jobs with higher informality levels and lower levels of job quality in comparison to men. In addition, we find that institutional mechanisms reproduce these limitations through discrimination and segregation.