Troxler, P., Roller, M., Bandi, M. (2024). The Development of Ski Areas and Its Relation to the Alpine Economy in Switzerland. Swiss journal of economics and statistics, 160(1): 10. Link. Working Paper Version: CRED Research Paper No. 44
Abstract
Cableways alleviate access to the Alps and were crucial in establishing the skiing tourism boom of the after-war years. Moreover, cableway operators employ a large share of residents, are complemented by tourism-related services and are therefore a key economic pillar in otherwise laggard regions. We exploit comprehensive historical data of all ever-built cableways in Switzerland linked to federal tax and population data to show how much ski area access benefits the municipality's economy. Evaluating difference-in-differences sheds light on how ski area access municipalities evolved economically compared to those without access. We find that opening a ski area between 1940 and 1980 is related to economic growth that persists until today. Particularly, it attracted new residents and created more productive employment opportunities in tourism-related services. Thereby raising incomes and tax revenues. Our results contribute to the debate of what economic risks access municipalities face once the decreasing snowpack forces a ski area to close.
Roller, M. (2022). Estimation of direct net effects of events. Tourism Economics. Link . Working Paper Version: CRED Research Paper No. 35
Abstract
I provide a new estimation strategy that allows to estimate the direct net effects of events and the respective substitution effects. I apply the method to estimate the effect of fairs on overnight stays in Basel. I find that fairs increase the overnight stays on nights during fairs by 17% and by 8% and 4% in the preceding nights. The net effect of fairs on overnight events is only one forth of the gross effect. These results demonstrate that the distinction between net and gross effects is crucial also for the estimation of direct effects of events.
Büchel, K., Kiener, R., Lienhard, A., Roller, M. (2021). Automatisierte Spruchkörperbildung an Gerichten - Grundlagen und empirische Erkenntnisse am Beispiel des Bundesverwaltungsgerichts. Richterzeitung. Link. English version.
Abstract
Dieser Beitrag befasst sich interdisziplinär mit den rechtlichen und konzeptionellen Grundlagen einer softwarebasierten Spruchkörperbildung und deren Umsetzung anhand einer Fallstudie zum Bundesverwaltungsgericht. Aus der rechtlichen und empirischen Analyse werden verallgemeinerungsfähige Erkenntnisse für die automatisierte Spruchkörperbildung an Gerichten abgeleitet.
Roller, M., & Steinberg, D. (2020). The distributional effects of early school stratification-Non-parametric evidence from Germany. European Economic Review, 103422. Link
Abstract
Whether early school stratification is conducive or detrimental to scholastic performance has been subject to controversial debates in educational policy and science across many countries. We exploit a unique exogenous variation in Lower Saxony, Germany, where performance based tracking was preponed from grade 7 to grade 5 in 2004, i.e. with the completion of primary school. In particular, we measure the long-run effects of this reform on PISA achievement test scores based on a difference-in-differences setup. In order to disentangle average from distributional achievement effects, we complementarily rely on a changes-in-changes framework. Our results indicate that preponed school tracking increased test scores at the upper tail of the skill distribution and lowered test scores at the lower tail of the skill distribution, compensating each other on average.
Troxler, P., Bandi, M., Roller, M. (2023). The Investment Competition among Swiss Ski Areas. CRED Research Paper No. 45
Abstract
In recent years, ski area operators in Switzerland have faced a decreasing demand due to climate change, exchange rate pressure and demographical changes among other factors. At the same time, ski lift and snowmaking capabilities have increased – partly with financial aid from public funds. It is therefore crucial to find out how much ski area investments retain demand and affect the competition for the remaining guests. We link firm-level data from ski areas to natural snowpack data and use Two-Way Fixed Effect (TWFE) estimators to study (i) how ski areas lower their dependency on natural snow by investing in snowmaking facilities, (ii) he effect of ski lift investments on skiing demand and revenue and (iii) the impact of lift investments on the spatial competition between neighboring ski areas. We find that ski areas with above-median snowmaking capabilities lower their dependency on natural snow by two-thirds. Ski lift investments induce a one-time positive average effect of 4.1% on demand and 1.9% on revenue in the winter following the construction. Finally, we document negative effects of ski lift expansions of neighboring areas within a road distance of up to 50 kilometers on demand
Roller, M. and Steinberg, D. (2023). Differences-in-Differences with multiple Treatments under Control. CRED Research Paper No. 41
Abstract
Numerous quasi-experimental identification strategies making use of the difference-in-differences setup suffer from multiple treatments which can be separated into sequential and simultaneous treatments. While for causal inferences under sequential treatments a staggered difference-in-differences approach might be applied, for causal inferences under simultaneous treatments the standard differences-in-differences approach is normally not applicable. Accordingly, we present an adjusted differences-in-differences identification strategy that can neutralize the effects of additional treatments implemented simultaneously through the definition and the specific composition of the control group and an amended common trend assumption. Even though the adjusted difference-in-differences strategy identifies the average treatment effect on the treated, we also show that the adjusted strategy is capable of identifying the average treatment effect under stronger common trend assumptions and the absence of interaction effects between the treatments.
Roller, M. (2022). Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience. CRED Research Paper No. 39
Abstract
In this study, I provide a location choice model incorporating five pre-crisis determinants for tourists' destination choice to study the impact of these determinants on the resilience of tourism. The determinants are the kind of destination (rural vs. urban), the pre-crisis origin country specific attractiveness of the destination, the infrastructure size, the density, and the local culture. I estimate the effect of these determinants on the recovery of hotel overnight stays during the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. I find that urban areas had an up to 75% percent lower recovery level. Half of this difference is due to their pre-crisis specific attractiveness for international tourists. This implies that a miss-match between long-run local touristic capital and domestic demand preferences prevents destinations from substituting the missing international tourists with domestic tourists. While infrastructure size affects the resilience ambiguously, density weakens the resilience in cities. Culture does not play a role if there are no local COVID-19 policies.
Roller, M. and Schmidheiny, K. (2016). Effective Tax Rates and Effective Progressivity in a Fiscally Decentralized Country. CEPR Discussion Paper 11152, CESifo Working Paper 5834.
Abstract
We propose measures to quantify the effective level and progressivity of taxation in a fiscally decentralized country taking income sorting into account. Using the universe of administrative individual tax data in Switzerland, we find that rich households effectively face significantly lower average and marginal tax rates than in the benchmark case that ignores income sorting. Although income tax schedules on all three levels of government are strictly progressive, the effectively paid average tax rate is regressive for households with very high incomes. Our results also hold when we consider the disutility from housing prices into which tax rates capitalize.
Bandi Tanner, M., Wirth, S., Roller, M. (2023). Klimaschutz und Nachhaltigkeit im Tourismus.
Roller, M. and Troxler, P. (2022). Erhebung der Nutzung des öffentlichen Verkehrs durch Inhaber von digitalen Gästekarten. In C. Laesser, T. Bieger, W. Axhausen (Hrsg.), Schweizer Jahrbuch für Verkehr 2022.
Roller, M. (2017). Taxation, Mobility, and Education: Insights from Fiscal Federalism. Dissertation. University of Basel.
Bandi Tanner, M. & Roller M. (2020). Strukturwandel im Schweizer Tourismus – Einfluss der Corona-Krise auf die touristische Nachfrage, die touristischen KMU-Strukturen und den touristischen Arbeitsmarkt, Bern. Link