Books are presented first in the chronological order.
Papers are order by the category:
economic inequality and social mobility
economic history (topics other than EI and SM)
economic policy
reproducibility (Institue for Replications)
finance
Books:
3. Wroński, M. (2026). Bilans niepodległości: Gospodarka II Rzeczypospolitej [Taking Stock of Independence: The Economy of the interwar Poland]. Forthcomin in Polskie Wydawnictwo Naukowe.
Taking Stock of Independence: The Economy of the Second Polish Republic offers a comprehensive reassessment of Poland's economic development between the two world wars, drawing on newly reconstructed historical national accounts and a wealth of regional and local evidence. Challenging long standing narratives of economic stagnation, the book argues that interwar Poland was one of Europe's fastest growing economies, achieving substantial modernization, regional convergence, and improvements in living standards despite exceptionally difficult domestic and international conditions. Combining economic history with modern quantitative methods, it explores growth, structural change, public policy, inequality, social mobility, and Poland's place in the world economy. By providing a new empirical foundation for one of the most debated periods in Polish history, the book reshapes our understanding of the achievements, limitations, and enduring legacy of the Second Polish Republic.
2. Wroński, M., Meissner, J., Bąkowski, K., Muchorowski, J. & Żerko, K. (2025). Pozycja Polski w globalnym łańcuchu wartości przemysłu obronnego [Poland's Position in the Global Defense Industry Value Chain]. Łukasiewicz Research Network.
Poland's Position in the Global Defense Industry Value Chain examines the role of the Polish defense sector within global production networks and assesses how rising defense expenditures can strengthen the country's long-term technological and economic development. The book analyzes the structure of global defense value chains, Poland's comparative position, and international experiences—including those of South Korea, Türkiye, and Germany—to identify successful development strategies. Particular attention is devoted to research and development, innovation, technology transfer, and cooperation between industry, academia, and government. Combining economic analysis with policy recommendations, the monograph offers a comprehensive perspective on how Poland can move toward higher value-added activities in the global defense industry.
1. Kazimierz Słomczyński, Irina Tomescu-Dubrow, Zbigniew Sawiński, Marcin Wroński, Henryk Domański, Katarzyna Kopycka, Anna Kiersztyn, Danuta Życzyńska-Ciołek, Olga Zelinska, Alexi Gugushvili. Grzegorz Bulaczak, Ilona Wysmułek and Jakub Wysmułek (2025). Social Mobility and Unequal Chances: The Polish Panel Survey. Warszawa: IFIS PAN, forthcoming.
That's a collaborative book project presenting the most important research based on the Polish Panel Survey. I contributed to the part of intergenerational mobility in the 20th century.
Economic inequality and social mobility
21. Wroński M., Kondratowicz, J., Hryniewicka, J., Woźny, K. & Załęska, O. (2025). From Landed Wealth to Urban Income: Inequality and Modernization in Nineteenth-Century Poland.
Abstract: This paper studies wealth and income inequality in nineteenth-century Poland using 11,043 intergenerational wealth transfers from the Kielce Governorate and income-tax records from Kraków. Wealth inequality declined sharply: the Kielce Gini fell from 0.95 in 1835–1840 to 0.61 in 1900–1909, as the dominance of large landed fortunes weakened. Kraków followed a different path: urban income inequality rose again in the late nineteenth century as commercial, professional, and administrative elites pulled away. The results show that modernization compressed estate-based wealth inequality while strengthening market-based urban income inequality.
Paper:
Preprint: [Link]
19. Wroński M. &
20. Wroński M. & Minakowska, M. (2025). The Kinship Network of Polish Social Elite, 1800-1984: the Evolution over Nine Generations.
Abstract: We study the family networks of the Polish social elite using a large genealogical database. We reconstruct kinship ties up to the sixth degree to examine elite composition and reproduction. Our results show that the Polish elite formed a single, persistent network dominated by descendants of the nobility, which adapted to changing conditions by assimilating outsiders. Women and individuals of Jewish ancestry played important bridging roles. After WW II, elite reproduction shifted from a familial to an institutional mode. Political elites initially dominated, were challenged by economic elites at the turn of the century, while cultural and professional elites prevailed after 1945.
Paper:
Preprint: [Link]
19. Wroński M. & Załęska, O. (2025). The Social Composition of Polish United Workers’ Party Leadership. Proceedings of the Centre for Economic History Research, 10, 52 - 66.
Abstract: In this article, the authors discuss the social standing of the members of central party bodies and regional leaders of the Polish United Workers Party. For this purpose, a database was created, including 1677 individuals holding 3148 offices. The communist elite was strongly positively selected on the basis of genealogical ties to the prewar social elite, as well as occupation and education. The central authorities of the PZPR were most “elite” during the Stalinist period, while their ties to the prewar elite weakened in the 1970s. Kinship ties between the democratic opposition leaders and the pre-war social elite were more pronounced than those observed among the communist party leadership.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
18. Wroński M. and Minakowska, M. (2025). Intergenerational Mobility over Nine Generations: Evidence from Poland, 1800-1984. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, forthcoming.
Abstract: In this paper, we utilize the mass genealogical data to measure social mobility in Poland over the last two centuries. To do so we digitized the unique dataset of elite biographies and imputed the nine generations of the Polish elite to the Poland's largest genealogical database. We measure direct family links between the top 0.01% of the Polish society across nine generations. We find that intergenerational mobility was low and stagnant until WW I, then it gradually increased in the 20 th century, especially after WW II. In the 19 th century, 35-39% of the elite were direct descendants of the elite of the previous generation and 50% of the elite retained the social status for their children. In 1984, descendants of the previous generation of the elite still formed 17% of the current elite. Family formation strongly influenced the persistence of social status, especially in the case of outsiders, who joining the elite as the first in their families. Outsiders who marry at least twice are much more likely to join the elite family network and retain the social status for their children. Our results also show that religious institutions were an important engine of social mobility.
Paper:
Preprint: [Link]
17. Wroński M. & J. Kondratowicz (2024). Physicians and Dentists in Poland Before and After World War II: The Transition to Salaried Employment, Ethnic Diversity, and the Position of Women. Economic History Annals (Roczniki Dziejów Społecznych i Gospodarczych), forthcoming.
Abstract: We describe the transformation of the medical profession during the interwar period and in the years after World War II. We focus on three simultaneous processes: the growing importance of salaried employment, the nationalizing activities of the reborn Polish state, and the emancipation of women. Based on the complete lists of physicians and dentists active in 1939 and 1948, we discuss the regional distribution of doctors, the ethnic structure of the profession, and the position of women in the elite medical occupation. We find that Germans and Jews were overrepresented among physicians, Poles were slightly underrepresented and Ukrainians/Belarusians/Russians were severely underrepresented. The percentage of Poles among medical doctors increased after the regaining of Polish independence. Women’s access to the profession significantly improved in the interwar period. The profession suffered enormous losses during World War II. Only 34% of physicians active in 1939 were still active in 1948.
Paper:
Preprint: [Link]
16. Wroński M. and K. Rosner-Leszczyński (2024). Wealth Elite in the Prussian Poland before WW I. Social and Economic History Annals (Roczniki Dziejów Społecznych i Gospodarczych), 87, 157 - 189.
Abstract: We examine the standing of Poles at the top of the wealth hierarchy in Prussian Poland, using rich lists published by Rudolf Martin as our data source. Our findings show that nearly half of the millionaires residing in the Province of Poznań were of Polish nationality, while the presence of Polish millionaires in the other analyzed provinces was minimal. Poles were particularly concentrated among the “middle-tier” millionaires, with fewer represented at the very top or bottom of the rich lists. Almost all Polish millionaires were aristocratic landowners. Despite the unfavorable policies imposed by the Prussian authorities, our results suggest that the interests of the Polish elite were not significantly threatened. Polish landowners benefited from access to the German market, which facilitated their export of agricultural products.
Paper:[Link]
Preprint: [Link]
15. Wroński M. (2024). Intergenerational educational mobility in Poland in the long run Education as a positional good. Eastern European Economics, 62(3), 317 - 339
Abstract: We investigate the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility in Poland since 1920. We use a novel empirical method allowing for the measurement of mobility at a constant rank in the education distribution, not among education levels. We find that intergenerational mobility increased after WWII. This increase was only temporary. When the new social system stabilized intergenerational mobility decreased. The transition to a free market economy decreased intergenerational mobility but it recovered after the first fifteen years of the transition. Despite identified fluctuations, intergenerational mobility is rather stable over time
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
14. Wroński M. (2024). Income inequality in the Duchy of Warsaw (1810/11). Scandinavian Economic History Review, 72(1), 67-81.
Abstract: In this paper we use administrative tabulations from occupation-based income tax (class tax) to estimate income inequality in the Duchy of Warsaw. We start off by estimating income inequality in the Department of Kalisz, and then use the decomposability of the Theil index to estimate national income inequality based on a sample of Theil indices corresponding to different settlement types. According to our results, income inequality in the Duchy was at a moderate level, although in the biggest cities it was relatively high. Income inequality at county level was positively correlated with the mean income of the county.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
13. Wroński, M. (2023). The relative persistence of income inequality and intra-generational income mobility in Poland during and after the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2015). Economic Analysis Letters, 3(2), 26-34.
Abstract: Poland has experienced a very sharp rise in income and wealth inequality after the economic transition. We measure the relative persistence of income inequality and intra-generational income mobility in Poland during the period 2008-2015. Our research is based on the panel survey data, our subsample includes 501 households. To measure the persistence of income inequality we calculate Shorrocks’s R coefficient. We find that if inequality is measured by the Gini index the relative persistence of income inequality in Poland is similar to Western Europe. In the case of the Theil index and the Mean Log Deviation (MLD), the relative persistence is higher than in a majority of Western Europe countries and similar to the United Kingdom or the United States. The income distribution in Poland is rather stable. Income mobility is lowest at the bottom and at the top of the income distribution. In the middle (3rd) quintile upward mobility is higher than downward mobility. The short-term income mobility in Poland has not changed during and after the Great Financial Crisis and is still medium in comparison with the rest of Europe.
Paper: [LINK]
Preprint:
12. Wroński, M. (2023). Income inequality in the Congress Kingdom of Poland at the beginning of the 20th century. Working Paper
Abstract: In this paper, I provide the first estimates of regional GDP and economic inequality in the Congress Kingdom of Poland. My research complements earlier work on the economic development of the Congress Kingdom, and economic inequality in Prussian and Austrian Poland. Estimates of income inequality are based on the study on top incomes prepared by the Ministry of Finance of Russia Opyt'. Regional GDP per capita varied between 60% of the national average in the governorate of Suwałki and 158% of the national average in the governorate of Piotrków. I find that c. 1904 the top 1% income share on a national level stood at 15.99%. It was higher than in Prussian Poland, Austrian Poland, and European Russia. Income inequality was highest in the two, richest, industrial governorates of Warszawa and Piotrków.
Paper: link to be completed after the publication
Preprint: [Link]
11. Wroński, M. (2023). The income distribution in Warsaw in the 1830s. European Review of Economic History, 27(4), 581 - 605
Abstract: In this paper, I estimate income inequality in Warsaw in the early XIX century, using the 1833 tax census as the data source. I compare the income of Jews and Christians and investigate the spatial dimension of income inequality in the city. In 1833, income inequality in Warsaw was very high by modern standards, and medium by contemporary standards. The Gini index stood at 0.59, and the share of the top 1% was 19%. The inequality extraction ratio was 76%. The mean income of Jews was significantly higher than the mean income of Christians. Mean income varied strongly across districts of the city.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
10. Wroński, M. (2023). The Impact of Social Security Wealth on the Distribution of Wealth in the European Union. Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 24, 100445
Abstract: The ageing of society means that public pension systems are becoming increasingly important. This study evaluates the influence of public pension entitlements on wealth inequality among pensioners. A novel data source - the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey – is used to compare the impact of the public pension system on wealth inequality in 19 European countries. Findings indicate that in all investigated countries, social security wealth reduces wealth inequality. Augmented wealth inequality is ca. 30% lower than private wealth inequality. This estimate refers to the population of pensioners, while in the whole population the equalizing impact of public pension systems may be weaker. Social security wealth mitigates not only wealth inequality measured at the country level, but also wealth inequality in the whole European Union.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
9. Sierminska, E. & Wroński, M. (2023). Inequality and Public Pension Entitlements. In K.F. Zimmermann (Ed.) Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, (forthcoming). Cham: Springer.
Abstract: The literature on wealth inequality is expanding very fast. Wealth is usually more concentrated than income. However, traditional measures of wealth inequality are based only on private wealth, and thus exclude public pension entitlements. In this chapter, the literature on the impact of public pension entitlements on wealth inequality is discussed. Empirical research shows, that wealth inequality is significantly reduced after accounting for public pension wealth. The value of Gini index is usually reduced by 20 – 40%.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
8. Wroński, M. (2023). The wealth elite of Warsaw in the 1970s (in Polish). Social and Economic History Annals (Roczniki Dziejów Społecznych i Gospodarczych), 85, 227 - 248
Abstract: Based on administrative data from the collection of the extraordinary wealth tax implemented in 1974 we identify the richest citizens of Warsaw. The value of the wealth of the wealthiest was smaller than in the interwar period, and after the economic transition, but still significant (starting at 30 years of the average wage). The richest citizens of socialist Warsaw had two common characteristics: the place of residence (Stary Żoliborz) and belonging to intelligentsia (representation of culture and academia was particularly strong). The wealth stratification of society in the era of real socialism was fundamentally different than in the market economy.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
7. Wroński, M. (2023). The wealth inequality in interwar Poland. Economic History of Developing Regions, 38(1), 1 – 40.
Abstract: In 1923 Poland introduced an extraordinary wealth tax. I have used internal statistics of the Ministry of the Treasury to estimate wealth inequality in interwar Poland. This data source was not previously used by researchers. There are no estimates of wealth inequality in interwar Poland available in the literature. According to my estimates, the top 0.01% of wealth owners controlled 14.8% of total private wealth. The wealth share of the top 1% stood at 37.5%. The top decile owned 60.7% of total private wealth. Wealth inequality varied strongly by region. A comparison of wealth inequality in Poland with wealth inequality in other European countries in the interwar period yields a diverse picture. The wealth share of the top 0.01% was the highest in Europe, the wealth share of the top 1% was in the middle of the European ranking, and the wealth share of the top 10% was almost the lowest in Europe. The small elite of super-rich (0.01%) controlled a higher share of national wealth than their European peers, but the wealth share of the rest of the top decile was relatively low. The unequal development of former partitions may partially explain the very high top wealth shares.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
6. Wroński, M. (2023). The impact of the public pension system on wealth inequality. The distribution of augmented wealth in Poland. Applied Economics Letters, 30(3), 355 – 359.
Abstract: Public pension wealth is an important component of a household’s wealth portfolio. However, due to data scarcity, it is usually omitted in the research on household wealth. The literature on augmented wealth is limited to developed economies. We use a novel data source to estimate the distribution of public pension wealth and augmented wealth in Poland. We assess the impact of education-related mortality differential on the value of public pension wealth. Our research sample includes pensioners and workers near retirement. Therefore, we measure the impact of public pension wealth on wealth distribution among those who already profit from their public pension wealth, or will profit from it soon. Moreover, the value of their public pension wealth is stable and robust, while the value of public pension entitlements of the working-age population may change rapidly due to pension system reforms. The public pension system significantly decreases wealth inequality. The Gini index equals 0.5007 for private wealth distribution and 0.3472 for augmented wealth distribution. Decomposition techniques confirm an equalizing impact of public pension wealth on the pension system. The impact of education-related mortality differential on the value of public pension wealth exists at the individual level, but it diminishes at the household level.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
5. Wroński M. (2022). Welfare state and economic inequality in Nordic Countries (book chapter in Polish). In: B.Czarny (Ed)., Szkice o gospodarce krajów nordyckich na początku XXI wieku. Warszawa: Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH.
Abstract: [This is a book chapter in Polish on the long-tem evolution of economic inequality in Nordic Countries, and the impact of welfare state on the distribution of income and wealth]
Book: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
4. Wroński, M. (2022). Household wealth in Central and Eastern Europe. Explaining the wealth gap between Poland and Hungary. Bank & Credit, 53(5), 443 – 475.
Abstract: In this paper, we compare the distribution of household wealth in Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, and Slovakia. This comparison leads to a striking result. Despite similar levels of economic development, households in Poland are two times wealthier than their Hungarian counterparts. Therefore in the second part of the paper, we estimate the counterfactual wealth distribution that would exist if the household composition in Poland was the same as in Hungary in order to investigate if differences in the household structure explain this gap. According to our results, the different household composition explains only approx. 15% of the wealth gap.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
3. Wroński, M. (2021). Multidimensional inequality in the European Union. The joint distribution of household income, wealth, and consumption. Economics & Sociology, 14(3), 205-219.
Abstract: We use a novel cross-country data set to measure multidimensional inequality of income, wealth, and consumption in 21 EU countries. We investigate the correlation between the positions of the household in their distributions. We use the bootstrap method to assess the statistical significance of cross-country differences. We find that the correlation between the position of the household in considered distributions varies significantly across countries. Homeownership, median income, and level of unidimensional inequalities are correlated with the strength of the link between distributions. Multidimensional analysis of inequality changes the picture emerging from the unidimensional inequality analysis. Wealth inequality is a crucial contributor to multidimensional inequality. Cross-country differences in multidimensional inequality in the European Union are rather mild.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
2. Brzeziński, M., Sałach, K., and Wroński, M. (2020). Wealth inequality in Central and Eastern Europe: evidence from joined survey and rich lists’ data. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 28(4), 637-660.
Abstract: We study how the problem of the ‘missing rich’, the underrepresentation of the wealthiest in household surveys, affects wealth inequality estimates for the post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The survey data from the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) are joined with the data from the national rich lists for Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Slovakia. Pareto distribution is fitted to the joined survey and rich lists’ data to impute the missing observations for the largest wealth values. We provide the first estimates of the top-corrected wealth inequality for the CEE region in 2013/2014. Despite a short period of wealth accumulation during the post-1989 market economy period, our adjustment procedure reveals that wealth inequality in the Baltic countries is comparable to that of Germany (one of the most wealth-unequal countries in Europe), while in Poland and Hungary it has reached levels observed in France or Spain. We discuss possible explanations of these findings with reference to the speed and range of privatization processes, extent of income inequality, and the role of inheritances and wealth taxes in the region.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
1. Wroński, M. (2019). Key methodological issues in the research on household wealth (in Polish). The Polish Statistician (Wiadomości Statystyczne), 5(696), 34-47.
Abstract: The interest of economists and policy makers in collecting data on household wealth has been growing over the last decade (from the beginning of financial crisis in 2008). It has two fundamental reasons: wealth accumulation and growing inequalities as well as formulation of better public policies. The aim of the article is to discuss key methodological issues in the research on household wealth, to present solutions developed by the OECD expert committee applied in the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and to identify areas that require further consideration. Since 2010 significant progress has been achieved in the measurement of private wealth. Further research on the adequate representation of the richest households in the research sample and concepts of wealth broader than private wealth should be encouraged
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
Economic History
5. Popa, D. & Wroński, M. (2025). Foreign trade of Poland in the interwar period (1924 -1938) .
Abstract: We draw on detailed interwar trade statistics to reassess Poland's foreign trade in the interwar period. According to our findings, the Polish economy was less peripheral than often assumed, with a trade structure more diversified than that of non-European peripheral economies. Between 1924 and 1938, Poland's terms of trade improved by around 20%. Moreover, Poland was relatively lucky; the volatility in the terms of trade also had a positive effect on economic growth. New GDP estimates reveal stronger economic performance than previously assumed, and our results suggest that improved terms of trade played an important role in this outcome.
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
4. Wroński, M. & Dmitruk, B. (2025). Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w dwudziestoleciu międzywojennym oraz w okresie II Wojny Światowej [Warsaw Stock Exchenge in the interwar period and during the Second World War]. Gospodarka Narodowa [Polish Journal of Economics], forthcoming.
Abstract: In this paper, the authors analyze trends in the Polish capital market from 1924 to 1944. The study is
based on a newly developed database containing nearly 50,000 financial instrument quotations. Using
this data, stock and bond market indices were calculated. The authors investigate the impact of
macroeconomic factors and wartime events on financial instrument prices.
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
3. Koryś, M. & Wroński, M. (2025). The Impact of Railway on the Regional Economic Development and Social Mobility in the Congress Kingdom of Poland. Scandinavian Economic History Review, revision requested.
Abstract: We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experienced significantly higher population growth. The economic effects of the connection to the railway network increased over time. State-funded military railway lines generated a smaller impact than private-owned lines. We also study the impact of the railway connection on social mobility proxied through a number of notable people born in a given city. However, we do not identify any robust impact.
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
2. Bukowski, M., Kowalski, M. & Wroński, M. (2025). Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Interwar Poland: Detailed Historical National Accounts. Cliometrica, first online.
Abstract: We present the first national, regional, and sectoral GDP estimates for interwar Poland. Our estimates indicate that the economy performed substantially better than is commonly assumed. Between 1924 and 1938, real GDP per capita rose by 41%, or 2.5% per year. Because growth was faster in poorer regions, the country experienced substantial regional convergence. These findings challenge the prevailing narrative of weak interwar performance.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
1. Bukowski, M., Kowalski, M. & Wroński, M. (2025). Agriculture in interwar Poland: development in a turbulent time. Faculty of Economic Sciences Working Paper 465, University of Warsaw.
Abstract: We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased during the investigated period. Significant regional convergence, both in the case of prices and value added occurred. In the years 1924 -38 value added increased by 5.35% annually, resulting 4.01% per capita growth rate. However, the yields per hectare grew less than in a majority of other European economies. While less developed eastern regions caught up with more economically advanced western Poland, the leading west lost compared to European peers. Therefore, our assessment of the development of agriculture in Poland in that period remains mixed.
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
Economic policy
12. Wroński, M. & Dmitruk, B. (2026). Beyond the Metropolis: Employer-Mediated Labour Immigration in a New Destination Country.
Abstract: Most research on immigration and local labour markets focuses on long-standing Western destinations and metropolitan settlement. Poland offers a different case. Within little more than a decade it moved from emigration to being one of Europe's main destinations for foreign labour, admitting most non-EU workers through an employer-mediated regime in which a job offer normally precedes authorisation. This paper examines how such a migration transition unfolded across space. We use administrative microdata on all work authorisations granted to foreigners in Poland's 380 counties between 2011 and 2025, disaggregated by nationality and authorisation type, treating them not as a perfect measure of migrant stocks but as a unique record of where employers sought foreign labour. The central finding is spatial dispersion: geographic concentration fell for almost every nationality, the distribution of authorisations increasingly resembled that of the native population, and the highest-intensity counties were often agricultural, food-processing, industrial or semi-peripheral areas rather than the largest cities. The inflow was higher where wages were higher and unemployment lower, suggesting that employer-mediated recruitment connected migrant labour to local demand. Labour-market associations were modest: immigration was linked to slightly higher average wages and only small, lagged changes in unemployment. The Polish case shows that new immigration countries may absorb foreign labour through dispersed local demand rather than metropolitan concentration alone, but that this creates new governance challenges for integration policy, labour inspection and local public services.
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
11. Król M. and Wroński M. (2025). Barries and Bridges: How Socioeconomic Status and Networks Shape Healthcare Access.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the socioeconomic factors affecting the electoral outcomes of the populist parties in Poland. According to estimation results, the re-election of Law & Justice can be explained by changes in economic conditions. Slow dynamics of municipality revenues from the personal income tax, depopulation, and social transfers are crucial drivers of its success. Contrary to Western Europe, the effects of immigration and inequality on the outcomes of populist parties in Poland are not statistically significant. Populist parties are successful in increasing their support in areas, which traditionally did not vote for them.
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
10 Olejnik, Ł. and Wroński M. (2025). The roots of populism in Poland. Do uneven economic development, social transfers, inequality and migration explain the success of populist parties?. Economics & Politics, 37(2), 685 - 698.
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the socioeconomic factors affecting the electoral outcomes of the populist parties in Poland. According to estimation results, the re-election of Law & Justice can be explained by changes in economic conditions. Slow dynamics of municipality revenues from the personal income tax, depopulation, and social transfers are crucial drivers of its success. Contrary to Western Europe, the effects of immigration and inequality on the outcomes of populist parties in Poland are not statistically significant. Populist parties are successful in increasing their support in areas, which traditionally did not vote for them.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
9. Robayo-Abril, M., Balaban, M. & Wroński, M. (2024). Tax Compliance in Romania. Policy Research Working Paper 10940. World Bank
Abstract: This paper uses statistical matching techniques to assess tax compliance and underreporting of labor income in Romania, overall and for different population groups, including among minimum wage workers, to understand the distributional implications and its links with minimum wage policy and design. Understanding the extent and distribution of tax evasion is relevant for enhancing domestic tax capacity, its redistributive impacts, and the links with social policy, including minimum wage policy. Estimating the average underreporting of income is challenging due to the significant underrepresentation of top incomes in survey data. After censoring, the average underreporting of income is 6 percent. When looking at the distribution of tax evasion, the analysis also shows significant underreporting of income in the bottom half of the income distribution. The results show that tax-reported income at the median of the income distribution equals only 90 percent of the true (survey) income, and at the 25th percentile, this share is 83 percent. Women are more tax compliant than men. Tax compliance varies across sectors of the economy, regions of the country, and demographic groups. Transport, construction, and food and accommodation are the sectors of the economy with the lowest tax compliance. The underreporting of income results in lower fiscal capacity for the country and may also lower the efficiency of means-tested social assistance. The underreporting of income significantly increases the share of minimum wage earners, which may impact the minimum wage policy.
Paper: [Link]
8. Robayo-Abril, M., Zamfir, M. & Wroński, M. (2024). Simulating Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Minimum Wage Increases in Romania : Evidence from Survey and Administrative Tax Data. Policy Research Working Paper 10934. World Bank
Abstract: Minimum wages are an essential component of a country's social protection system, aiming to protect vulnerable workers and reduce poverty and wage inequality. Yet, there are risks associated with poor minimum wage design. Higher minimum wages may result in higher earnings for affected workers but fewer job opportunities for others, including the demographic groups they are intended to help, such as those with very low wages and skills and youth, so ex-ante evaluation of potential employment, wage, and distributional impacts is needed. Over the past decade, Romania experienced significant real growth in the minimum wage and a rising minimum-to-median wage ratio. However, when looking at minimum living standards, the analysis shows that the statutory minimum wage is higher than the living wage needed to cover a consumption food basket estimated by the European Commission under the European Reference budget network, but not enough to include non-food components. The microsimulation results using administrative tax data show that tying minimum wage to inflation or the living wage could lead to a slight short-term wage increase for some workers but may cause job loss in the long run, especially for younger workers. The minimum wage increase could have varying impacts across regions and sectors, with the accommodation and food services sector and those living in the Suceava region, which has the highest proportion of affected employees. Moreover, male employees tend to be more affected than their female counterparts.
Paper: [Link]
7. Wroński, M. and Koryś, P. (2024). The Political Legacy of Wehrmacht in Poland.
Abstract: During World War II, some Polish citizens living in Silesia were subject to military conscription to the German armed forces. We construct local estimates of exposure to military conscription across 38 Silesian cities. Then, we estimate the impact of the conscription on the EU referendum in 2003 and the presidential election in 2005. We find that cities, where more people served in the German military were more likely to vote for joining the EU and support the liberal candidate in the first round presidential election. However, after the candidate was falsely accused of having a grandfather who volunteered for service in the Wehrmacht, descendants of those conscripted into the German military reduced their electoral support for him
Paper: to be completed after publication
Preprint: [Link]
6. Wroński, M. (2023). The full distribution of adult height in Poland: cohorts born between 1920 and 1996. The full distribution of adult height in Poland: cohorts born between 1920 and 1996. The biological cost of the economic transition. Economics & Human Biology, Volume 50, August 2023, 101261.
Abstract: Body height often serves as a proxy for economic progress. In this paper, we investigate the evolution of average height and height dispersion in Poland based on full administrative data on body height (n=36,393,246). In the cohorts born between 1920 and 1996 average height of men increased by 10.15 cm, while the average height of women rose by 8.18 cm. Height increase was fastest in the years 1940 – 1980. After the economic transition body height stagnated. Post-transition unemployment had negative impact on body height. Communes, where State Agricultural Farms existed lost their height-premium. Height dispersion declined in the first decades under investigation and increased after the economic transition.
Paper: [Link]
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5. Wroński, M. (2022). The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Market and Household Income in Poland. World Bank, Working Paper, 176579.
Abstract: COVID-19 had a vast and long-term impact on the economy. The pandemic was one of the largest economic shocks since World War Two. Polish economy contracted by 2.5 percent in 2020. Although the size of the recession was not huge in comparison with other European countries, the impact of the pandemic was still profound. In this note, the authors investigate the public’s opinion on the government’s reaction to COVID-19, the impact of the pandemic on the level of economic stress, household incomes and labor market participation, and also the vaccination campaign.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
4. Wroński, M. (2022). Can the wealth tax be a remedy for public finance and reduce wealth inequalities in Poland?. IBS Policy Paper 03/2021. Institute for Structural Research (Instytut Badań Strukturalnych).
Abstract: Wealth tax proponents suggest that it should be introduced in order to reduce wealth inequalities and to gain additional tax revenues. In this paper, based on empirical data, I will attempt to prove that these objectives are hardly attainable through wealth tax. The impact of wealth tax on wealth inequalities would be rather low, as would any revenues resulting from its introduction. The tax would be paid by a relatively small number of taxpayers. Furthermore, the administrative requirements to collect it would be expensive and complicated. Therefore, since the benefit-cost ratio is unfavourable, the implementation of a wealth tax is an unfeasible solution. Instead, the objectives behind the wealth tax may be attained more effectively through a more progressive tax system and the imposition of an inheritance tax.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
3. Wroński, M. (2020). Eurozone ten years after the crisis. Structural weaknesses, implemented reforms and the future of the reform process. European Review (Przegląd Europejski), 2020(3), 79-95
Abstract: The article discusses the structural weaknesses of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), key reforms introduced after the financial crisis and the most important proposals of further EMU reforms present in the public debate. Reforms introduced during the last decade should be deemed to have positive results, however the EMU reform process has not yet been finished. Its successful completion depends on an agreement between Germany and France, which is hindered by conflicting economic interests and by different views on economic policy. The main purpose of this article is to demonstrate how public policy makers attempt to respond to the structural weakness of the Economic and Monetary Union and to identify the key factors, which impede an agreement between France and Germany.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
2. Hetmański, M., Iwanowski, D., Skowron, B., Wroński M. (2020). Coincidence of titles to social insurance and consequences for the social insurance system (in Polish). Instrat Policy Paper 07/2020,
Abstract: [This is a policy paper ordered by the Social Insurance Institution (pl. Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych, the main operator of the social insurance system in Poland. Based on the administrative data we investigate how important is the coincidence of titles to insurance for the social insurance system]
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
1. Wroński M. (2019) The Productivity Growth Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Causes and Policy Recommendations. International Journal of Management and Economics, 55 (4), 391-406.
Abstract: The growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in advanced economies has slowed significantly after the 1970s. The global financial crisis (GFC) has resulted in the second productivity growth slowdown. This paper, on the basis of a broad literature review, identifies the structural forces and legacies of the financial crisis, explaining the productivity growth slowdown and providing possible policy solutions. The mismeasurement hypothesis is also discussed. The slowing pace of innovations, population aging, slowing human capital accumulation, limits of structural transformation, capital misallocation, and firm-level factors are identified as structural forces slowing TFP growth. Lack of capital deepening, financial frictions, and slowdown of international trade are the most important legacies of GFC affecting productivity growth.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
Reproducibility
2. Brodeur, A, Valenta, D., Marcoci, A. .... Wroński, M. .... (2025). Comparing Human-Only, AI-Assisted, and AI-Led Teams on Assessing Research Reproducibility in Quantitative Social Science, PNAS (Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences), 123(22), e2524747123
Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT are transforming how scientists conduct and validate research, offering promise as tools to improve scientific reproducibility. However, computational reproducibility and error detection remain expensive and labor-intensive. We experimentally test how collaboration between researchers and LLM assistants influences the reproduction of quantitative social science findings across different levels of AI autonomy. We randomly assigned 288 researchers to 103 teams working under three conditions: human-only, AI-assisted (using ChatGPT as a collaborative tool), or AI-led (ChatGPT operating with minimal human oversight). Teams reproduced published results from leading social science journals, detected coding errors, and proposed robustness checks. Human-only and AI-assisted teams achieved comparable reproduction rates (94% vs. 91%) and performed similarly on most outcomes, except human-only teams identified significantly more major coding errors. Both substantially outperformed AI-led teams, which achieved only a 37% reproduction rate, detected fewer errors across all categories, proposed weaker robustness checks, and required more time. This autonomous approach, however, likely represents only a lower bound of AI capabilities. Despite rapid model advances, expert human judgment currently remains indispensable for reliable empirical verification. While AI assistance did not degrade most outcomes, it provided no measurable advantages and was associated with reduced detection of major errors. However, the 37% autonomous reproduction rate indicates that AI could provide value in settings where scale or cost constraints preclude human review of papers, even though general-purpose LLMs offer no immediate advantages for human-supervised verification.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
1. Brodeur, A., Mikola, D., Cook, N. ... Wroński, M. ... (2026).Reproducibility and robustness of economics and political science research. Nature,
Abstract: Science aspires to be cumulative. Reproducibility efforts strengthen scientific knowledge by testing the reliability of published findings, promoting self correction, and informing policy making. Computational reproductions, in which independent researchers reproduce the results of published studies, are an essential diagnostic tool. Yet large scale evidence on reproducibility and robustness in the social sciences remains limited. We reproduced original analyses and conducted robustness checks for 110 articles published in leading economics and political science journals with mandatory data and code sharing policies. We found that more than 85% of published claims were computationally reproducible. In robustness checks, 72% of statistically significant estimates remained significant and in the same direction, and the median reproduced effect size was virtually identical to the original, amounting to 99% of the published effect size. Six independent research teams also examined 12 pre specified hypotheses about the determinants of robustness. Teams with greater research experience found lower levels of robustness, whereas robustness was not associated with author characteristics or data availability.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
Finance
5. Wroński, M. (2023). Does Social Security Crowd out Private Wealth? A Survey of the Literature. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2(4), 98-122.
Abstract: In this paper, we review the research on the substitution between social security wealth and private wealth. Our review includes over 100 theoretical and empirical contributions. Nearly 70% of the literature identifies the statistically significant impact of social security wealth on different forms of private savings. A strong majority of authors, who obtain statistically significant results find the negative impact of social security on private savings. We discuss the main limitations of the literature. assets.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
4. Wroński, M. (2023). The Displacement Effects of Social Security Wealth in a Transition Economy. The Case of Poland, Polish Journal of Economics (Gospodarka Narodowa), 313(1), 19-40.
Abstract: Economic theory does not give clear predictions on the impact of social security wealth on private wealth. While the basic life-cycle hypothesis predicts full displacement, many more advanced theoretical contributions anticipate only a limited offset. Empirical research on the issue is also not conclusive. In this paper, we measure the substitution between social security wealth and private wealth in Poland. To obtain measures of long-term substitution, we measure the displacement effects of social security wealth on net wealth. Our estimates of the effects on consumption and the saving rate reflect a short-term impact. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis that social security wealth crowds out private savings in the long term. The short-term evidence is mixed, but the effects of social security wealth on consumption are at best weak, while the impact on saving rates is not statistically significant. In our view, in transition economies, the influence of social security wealth on private wealth is weaker than in developed economies because the wealth distribution has been to a large extent transformed by random and rapid events such as the privatisation of housing assets.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]
3. Kruszka, M. and Wroński, M. (2020). Divulgence of Additional Capital Requirements in the EU Banking Union. Economies, 8(2), 37.
Abstract: The European Central Bank, as a supervisory authority, set additional to the European level one capital requirements known as Pillar 2 for 118 significant credit institutions. Disclosure of Pillar 2 requirements is not compulsory, although many credit institutions choose to inform about them. We estimate a logit model to investigate if being listed on stock exchange, size, profitability and credibility have impact on the probability of divulgence. We estimate sixteen specifications of our model to compare the explanatory power of different measures of size, profitability and credibility. The legal form and the size are statistically significant in all specifications, while profitability and credibility are significant only in some of them.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint:[Link]
2. Kruszka, M. and Wroński, M. (2019). Prudential standards for the assessement of a mortgage borrower's credit risk (in Polish). Ruch Prawniczy Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny
Abstract: The recent financial crisis revealed a significant link between the stability of the banking system and real estate lending. The aim of the article is to present the supervisory measures (in the nar-row and in the broader sense) employed in banking as factors that can limit the demand for real estate lending. The study covers supervisory measures implemented in the European Economic Area countries. Supervisory instruments restricting the use of real estate as collateral for loans and instruments imposing income requirements on borrowers are discussed. Particular attention has been paid to the link between the priorities of financial market regulators in a given country and the international differentiation of the supervisory measures
Paper: [Link]
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1. Kruszka, M. and Wroński, M. (2019). Regulatory Reduction of Real Estate Financing by Banks (in Polish). Economic & Political Thought (Myśl Prawnicza i Ekonomiczna), 1(64)/2019 , 141 - 178.
Abstract: The recent financial crisis revealed an important link between the stability of the banking system and real estate lending. An aim of the article is to
present tools in the field of banking supervision as the factors that may limit the supply of such loans. The research covered only instruments introduced
to the EU legislation through the CRDIV/CRR package; then, the method of comparative analysis has been applied to show the scope of implementation
there of in individual EEA states. The obtained results allow stating that supervisory measures undertaken in relation to capital requirements are
characterised by significant flexibility. However, a relatively limited number of countries have decided to use them because of their potential side effects.
Paper: [Link]
Preprint: [Link]