• Martin, B. P., Faure, M. A., Cremaschini, F., & Ducruet, C. (2025). Shipping trade and geopolitical turmoil: The case of the Ukrainian Maritime network. Journal of Transport Geography, 128, 104342 → [Journal version].

Presented at: MAGNETICS Workshop 2024, LIP6 seminar (slides).

Abstract: Conflicts, whether political, commercial or military, affect transport networks. Operators seek to avoid the most tense areas or reconsider certain routes. Certain links can be disrupted in case of local geopolitical tensions, which can have a significant global impact. The article is devoted to studying Ukraine’s maritime network and identifying changes in these structures because of the conflict that started in 2014. The purpose of the paper is to measure and visualise the main changes in the Ukrainian seaport system and maritime forelands from 2010 until the most recent data available (December 2023), from a network models, bilateral trade and route simulation framework. The principal results confirm the huge impact of military conflict on port connectivity, thereby contributing to the recent literature on shipping network vulnerability.

• The mutual specialization of port and urban functions: The case of France. Papers in Regional Science, 101(2), 439-460. (with Mounir Amdaoud and César Ducruet). → [Journal version]; [WP version].

Abstract: This research examines the similarities between port traffic structure and economic structure of French port cities. Based on the combination of Automated Identification System (AIS) data and employment data, it performs complementary analyses of the mutual specialization between ports and cities. Main results show that while larger cities handle more diversified traffic, the cross-specialization is blurred by the complexity of trade networks and supply chains. We then propose a novel methodology whereby the spatial unit of analysis is enlarged according to the type and volume of port traffic. 

Video presentation of the paper: EconomiX Youtube Channel.

2025

• Shipping Network Research. A Systematic and Quantitative Review. (with César Ducruet). → [PDF].

Abstract: Once developed by geographers, shipping network research has long remained a peripheral subfield of academia. Increased shipping data availability and computational power, combined with renewed graph-theoretical methods, caused an unprecedented growth of shipping network studies since the late 2000s. This article provides an in-depth bibliometric analysis of no less than 329 peer-reviewed papers published between 2007 and 2025. First, it describes the gathered corpus from diverse angles, such as the growth of papers, the main journals, its disciplinary background, and the pattern of co-authorships. Second, we use a natural language processing (NLP) approach, namely the structural topic model, to undertake an in-depth analysis based on the contents of abstracts. We identify four main topics, of which trade and connectivity; hubs and centrality; vulnerability and robustness; and communities and spatial structure, which are discussed according to their innovative character compared with wider research on ports, maritime transport, and network science. Three additional subgroups received peripheral attention despite their core importance: environmental issues (of which, marine bioinvasions), socio-economic development, and the role of shipping alliances. We conclude that network science methods still have important potential in shipping network port and maritime studies, and propose several pathways for further research.

2024

• Shipping Trade and Geopolitical Turmoil. The Case of the Ukrainian Maritime Network. (with Barbara Polo-Martin, Fabio Cremaschini and César Ducruet) EconomiX Working Paper → [PDF].

Presented at: MAGNETICS Workshop 2024, LIP6 seminar (slides).

Abstract: Conflicts, whether political, commercial or military, affect transport networks. Operators seek to avoid the most tense areas or reconsider certain routes. Certain links can be disrupted in case of local geopolitical tensions, which can have a significant global impact. The article is devoted to studying Ukraine’s maritime network and identifying changes in these structures because of the conflict that started in 2014. The purpose of the paper is to measure and visualise the main changes in the Ukrainian seaport system and maritime forelands from 2010 until the most recent data available (December 2023), from a network models, bilateral trade and route simulation framework. The principal results confirm the huge impact of military conflict on port connectivity, thereby contributing to the recent literature on shipping network vulnerability.

• The Summer’s Call: A Forecasting Framework for Tourism Demand in Corsica. Kyrn'Economics Working Paper. (No. 2024-01). (with Jean-Toussaint Battestini) Preliminary draft → [PDF]. 

Abstract: Tourism is a vital resource for small island economies, and Corsica is no exception. Although it is difficult to estimate precisely the contribution of tourism to Corsica's gross domestic product (GDP), the work of INSEE highlights the importance of the sector to the island's economy. The analysis we are proposing, one of the first of its kind to our knowledge concerning the demand for Corsican tourism, uses several econometric models (SARIMA, SVAR, DCC-GARCH) to lay the foundations for a tool for forecasting tourist flows to Corsica. Using data on air and sea arrivals between January 2001 and July 2023, SARIMA shows a positive effect of past tourist arrivals, French, Italian and German household confidence, and oil prices. COVID-19 harms demand, while inflation has no effect. The results obtained from the SVAR do not allow us to conclude solely from a positive effect of past arrivals and a negative effect of COVID-19. While the pandemic had an immediate effect on arrivals to Corsica in 2020 and 2021 (-43% of arrivals during the tourist season - April to August - 2020 compared with 2019; -16% for the 2021 season), we note that the consequences of COVID-19 are not persistent. These results demonstrate the resilience of Corsica as a destination. SARIMA differs from SVAR in that its forecasts are more effective, with an average error (underestimation of actual demand) of 2% and 5%, which seems reasonable for a first draft. In the future, further modelling involving competition between our SARIMA and AI models, for example, could enhance our monitoring and forecasting capabilities.

2021

• Port-city linkages and multi-level hinterlands: the case of France (No. 2021-29). University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX. (with Mounir Amdaoud and César Ducruet) EconomiX Working Paper → [PDF].

Abstract: The objective of this research is to examine the similarities between the port traffic structure and the economic structure of French port cities. Such an exercise is challenged by the core-periphery pattern of the French economy favouring transhipment. Based on the combination of Automated Identification System (AIS) data and employment data, it performs complementary analyses of the mutual specialization between ports and cities. The main results show that while larger cities handle more diversified traffic, the cross-specialization is blurred by the complexity of trade networks and supply chains. We then propose a novel methodology whereby the spatial unit of analysis is enlarged according to the type and volume of port traffic, thus considerably improving the statistical significance and economic meaningfulness of the observed linkages. 

• Containers and Global Trade, 1977 - 2024.

• Was Maritime Trade Random? A Long Run Approach. (2024). Preliminary draft upon request.

Presented at: MAGNETICS Workshop 2024 (slides), Collège de France JRD 2024 (slides).

• Wealth Comes From The Sea: European Growth and Maritime Traffic. (joint with Anna Bottasso and Maurizio Conti) Preliminary slides upon request.

• Junior Researcher, MAritime Globalization, Network Externalities, and Transport Impacts on CitieS (MAGNETICS) research team, led by César Ducruet. Mainly focusing on identifying causality in port - region connectivity and exploring the structure and dynamics of maritime networks.

• Bacrot, C., and Faure, M.A. (2024). Red Sea Crisis and implications for trade facilitation in Africa. UNCTAD 'Transport and Trade Facilitation Newsletter'. [LINK].

Abstract: The end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 are marked by major disruptions to global maritime trade flows as ships entering the Gulf of Aden and sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal continue to face attacks by Yemen-based Houthis.[1]  This new wave of disruption follows the unprecedented global logistics crunch caused by the COVID-19 pandemic its fallout in 2020-2022 and the war in Ukraine since 2022. It also compounds the challenges caused by the reduced ship transits in the Panama Canals resulting from the impact of drought on water levels. Security threats in the Red Sea have caused a significant redirection of ship arrivals and transits culminating in far-reaching global trade and transport repercussions. Ships across all shipping segments on the Asia-Europe and Asia-Atlantic trade lanes have diverted their initial trajectory and started sailing around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. As a result, ships are now travelling longer distances and facing higher operational costs. The rerouting of vessels is creating pressure on the supply side. The 12 days in additional sailing time for a vessel going from Shanghai to Rotterdam[2] are driving up costs and extending delays.

• The Economic Geography of the European Container Network (Master's Thesis). PDF and slides are available upon request.

First chapter: In this chapter, the structure and topology of the European container network between 1977 and 2016 are investigated. Using Lloyd's data, we have access to almost 95% of the links between European ports (including Russia and Turkey) over the four decades that characterise the containerisation of the European port system. Using standard complex network analysis (CNA) tools, we show that in parallel with the expansion and complexification of the network, the concentration phenomenon continues. In order to formalise the structure of the network and to discuss its evolution with respect to economic geography and transport economics, we will use random graph modelling and stochastic block model (SBM). SBM, which is not widely adopted in maritime economics and geography, allows, via a variational inference procedure, to estimate the connectivity parameters between and within communities. We identify a relevant core-semicore-periphery structure that characterises the network over the whole period. We also show that there is a link between the size of the ports, their geographical position and their connectivity. Finally, we show, as Foschi (2002) hypothesised, that it is easier to transform an already established port into a hub than to create one from scratch. We can also point out that Gioia Tauro is a notable exception to this pattern, which can be explained by the revival of the Mediterranean in international trade. To sum up, this chapter proposes an original approach to emphasise the economic and spatial dynamics behind the emergence of the hubs and to better understand their position and influence in the network.

Second chapter: This second chapter proposes an empirical investigation of the regional economic impact of container traffic in Europe. Using NUTS-2 socio-economic data and maritime data from the \textit{Lloyd's} it is possible to estimate the impact of maritime traffic on regional GDP between 2008 and 2016. Given the endogeneity of container traffic, several methods are used to address this problem, including the use of a generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator. We also propose an original approach to maritime traffic in an econometric growth model with the use of the betweenness centrality of each port region instead of the traffic volume commonly used in this type of work. The various specifications proposed show that the impact of containerised traffic is positive and of low magnitude. The coefficient loses its significance when the GMM estimator is used to deal with endogeneity. Finally, this chapter highlights some limitations in the data used, the methodology selected and opens perspectives for future research on the estimation of the impact of maritime traffic on European local economies.

• Guillou, S., Kalash, B., Nesta, L., Pezzoni, M., Salies, E., Faure, M.A. (2022). Impact of the nature of research funding on research outcomes. Report for the Ministry of Higher Education and Research. [PDF].

• Faure, M.A., Guillou, S., & Salies, E. (2021). Covid Crisis and R&D. Presentation at the OFCE - Sciences Po 'Lunch Seminar'.

• Faure, M. A., & Guillou, S. (2020). The parachute of public bailout to save a falling airline industry [Le parachute du renflouement public au secours d'un secteur aérien en chute libre] OFCE Blog. [PDF].