Yardimci, M. A. (2024). Terrorism, counter‐terrorism, and voting: The case of Turkey. Economics & Politics,1–27.
This paper empirically tests the impact of terrorism and counter-terrorism on voting by focusing on the two 2015 general elections in Turkey - and the 2011 general election. This period offers a unique case because, after the first election, the ongoing peace process between the incumbent party (AKP), the political party associated with the perpetrators (pro-Kurdish political party, HDP), and the imprisoned leader of the terrorist organisation (PKK) was canceled. Instead, terror attacks recurred and curfews were implemented as counter-terrorism measures. This enables the impact of curfews and terror attacks on electoral outcomes to be analysed in a difference-in-differences setting. Terror attacks are estimated to reduce the incumbent's vote share by 3.2 percentage points, while increasing the vote share of the party associated with the perpetrators by 3.6 percentage points. Curfews are estimated to cancel out the impact of terror attacks in attacked municipalities and decrease the incumbent's vote share by 4.7 percentage points in non-attacked municipalities.
"Money Talks, Moderation Walks: The Centripetal Impact of Campaign Contributions in the U.S. House." with Andrew Pickering (Reject & Resubmit to Public Choice)
This paper investigates whether and how elected members of the US House of Representatives change their ideological positioning in response to campaign contributions. Contributions come from "Democrat", "Republican" and "split-ticket" sources, depending on donors' overall contribution profiles. "Republican" and "split-ticket" contributions are found to have a negative impact on the ideology score of representatives, indicating more liberal positioning. Similarly, "Democrat" contributions are found to have a positive impact, hence more conservative ideological positioning. Overall, money is found to have a centripetal effect on congress members’ ideology.
"To be (worried) or not to be? The Causal Impact of Minimum Wage Increases on Aggregate Prices" with Fikret Bilenkisi and Filippos Maraziotis, (submitted),
This paper estimates the causal effect of statutory minimum wage increases on aggregate consumer prices across 29 OECD countries during the synchronised inflationary cycle of 2021–2024. Exploiting staggered minimum wage reviews under a rare quasi-experimental environment of common global shocks, we implement a dynamic, dose-response difference-in-differences estimator that accommodates the cumulative, non-absorbing nature of wage floors and evolving treatment intensity. A 10 percent increase in the minimum wage raises aggregate prices by 0.3 percent over five months, with effects concentrated in food prices. Our estimates fall within the range of prior micro- and sectoral studies, but extend the literature by recovering the full temporal pass-through path. Our design-based approach demonstrates that credible causal inference is attainable in macro panels without micro-level data. The findings clarify the inflationary footprint of wage policies and offer a replicable framework for policy evaluation in macro-labour contexts.
"Fortune Favors the Generous: Campaign contributions & financial returns in the US"
"Minimum Wage Increases and Incumbency"
"Paternity Leave and Child Outcomes" with Filippos Maraziotis