Luca Rossi - Research, Policy, Media

Publications

The gravity of Offshore Financial Centers: estimating real FDIs using a binary choice model (with Marco Albori, Alessio Anzuini, Fabrizio Ferriani), International Economics, vol 178 (here you can also find the WP version), 2024
The drivers of market-based inflation expectations in the euro area and in the US (with Christian Hoynck), Economics Letters, vol 232 (here you can also find the WP version, while here you find a SUERF Policy Brief), 2023
Unconventional monetary policies and expectations on economic variables (with Alessio Anzuini), Empirical Economics, vol 63(6) pages 3027-3043 (here you can also find the WP version, while here you find a SUERF Policy Brief), 2022
Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its effects on the American economy (with Alessio Anzuini), Empirical Economics, vol 61(5) pages 2613-2634 (here you can also find the WP version), 2021
Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: time series evidence for Italy (with Alessio Anzuini and Pietro Tommasino), Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 65(C) (here you can also find the WP version), 2020

Working papers

Uncovering the inventory-business cycle nexus, Bank of Italy WP, 2025, R&R Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Macroeconomic shocks and the term premium (with Kevin Pallara and Fabrizio Venditti), submitted

Work in progress

Downside-risk sharing (with Federico Lenzi)

Older working papers

Revisiting the case for a fiscal union: the federal fiscal channel of downside-risk sharing in the United States, Bank of Italy WP, 2021
Monetary policy gradualism and the non-linear effects of monetary shocks (with Luca Metelli and Filippo Natoli), Bank of Italy WP, 2020

Policy papers, discussions, posts, and media

The Great Divide: productivity dynamics in the United States and the euro area after the pandemic (with Luisa Carpinelli, Rosalia Greco, Stefania Romano and Eliana Viviano), Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, 2025
Market participants versus rate-setters: a forecasting horse race (with Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Kevin Pallara, Sergio Santoro and Massimiliano Sfregola), Econbrowser, June 6th, 2024.
Long-term yields, the term premium and US monetary policy (with Kevin Pallara and Fabrizio Venditti), Econbrowser, December 4th, 2023
Clever Planning or Unfair Play? Exploring the Economic and Statistical Impacts of Tax Avoidance by Multinationals (with Alessio Anzuini, Elena Pisano, Alessandra Sanelli, Enrico Tosti and Ernesto Zangari), Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, 2023. Check also SUERF Policy Brief and media coverage (ItaliaOggi).
The drivers of market-based inflation expectations in the euro area and in the US (with Christian Hoynck), Econbrowser, August 21st, 2023. This work has been cited by former Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco here, here, here and here, and by Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta here. It has also been cited in the 2025 ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Assessment.
Energy shocks and core inflation in the US and in the euro area: this time is different (with Kevin Pallara, Massimiliano Sfregola and Fabrizio Venditti), Econbrowser, August 16th, 2023.
The impact of energy shocks on core inflation in the US and the euro area (with Kevin Pallara, Massimiliano Sfregola and Fabrizio Venditti), VoxEU, August 14th, 2023. This work has also been cited in the 2025 ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Assessment.
Risk sharing in monetary unions: the role of federal fiscal policy and capital markets, CEPS-ECFIN Seminar, discussion with Pierfederico Asdrubali, Barry Eichengreen, Daniel Gros, October 12, 2021
Le mosse Fed e il rischio di fare deragliare la ripresa. Ecco perchè ritirare gli stimoli delle Banche centrali è più pericoloso che lanciarli, Repubblica, March 16, 2021
Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user's guide, Bank of Italy Occasional Papers, 2020
Decessi da Covid-19, cosa ci dice il campione ISTAT (with Alessandro Borin, Domenico Depalo, Giuseppe Ilardi, Alfonso Rosolia), lavoce.info, April 20, 2020
Fighting Covid-19: measuring the restrictiveness of government policies (with Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Michele Mancini, Flavia Tonelli), Bank of Italy note, May 27, 2020
Aggiornamento sull'evoluzione della pandemia Covid-19 (with Alessandro Borin, Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Giuseppe Ilardi, Michele Mancini), Bank of Italy note, July 9, 2020
Recenti sviluppi della pandemia Covid-19 nel mondo (with Alessandro Borin, Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Michele Mancini), Bank of Italy note, October 23, 2020