One of the classic studies in the field of financial and retirement planning is the Trinity Study, a nickname for the article, “Retirement Spending: Choosing a Sustainable Withdrawal Rate,” by Philip L. Cooley, Carl M. Hubbard, and Daniel T. Walz (all professors at Trinity University in Texas). It appeared in the February 1998 issue of the Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. 

The Trinity Study showed that the success rates increase for lower withdrawal rates, shorter time horizons, and higher stock allocations. We can also see how sensitive results are to withdrawal rates, as for instance with 30-year horizons and a 50/50 portfolio, the success rate is 100% with a 4% initial withdrawal rate, and it falls to 68% with a 5% withdrawal rate, and only 43% with a 6% withdrawal rate.

Source: Safe Withdrawal Rates for Retirement and the Trinity Study, Wade Pfau, Ph.D., CFA, RICP.

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