Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle
Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle. Young households increase their consumption after an expansionary shock while prime-age households reduce it, regardless of their level of income or debt. Productivity and wages increase significantly for young workers. To rationalize these findings, I develop a parsimonious New Keynesian life-cycle model where young agents accumulate skills on the job through a learning-by-doing process. An increase in government spending raises hours worked, which enhances skill accumulation, particularly among young workers who face a steep learning curve. The ensuing increase in the relative labor demand for young workers boosts their wages, thus stimulating their consumption.
Short- and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Mineral Discoveries, with J-P. L'Huillier and K. Shakhnov
The bulk of the news shocks literature focuses on shocks materializing 4 or 5 quarters ahead, with limited evidence on news about longer-run events. We build a new dataset of discovery and production start dates for a wide range of giant commodity discoveries worldwide from 1960 to 2012. Standard open economy models match the empirical responses of short-run news, but fail in the case of long-run news. We show that incorporating financial frictions in the form of collateral constraints is crucial for capturing the dynamics implied by long-run news. We also provide direct evidence on the role of these frictions.
From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy across Gender, SERIEs 13, 309–334 (2022), with A. Bonk
Men, especially those that are young and less educated, typically bear the brunt of recessions because of the stronger cyclicality of their employment and wages relative to women's. We study the extent to which fiscal policy may offset or worsen these asymmetric effects across gender. Using micro-level data for the U.S. from the Current Population Survey, we find that the effects of fiscal policy shocks on labor market outcomes depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending. Our analysis further reveals that the fiscal component most efficient at closing gender gaps is least suitable for offsetting inequitable business cycle effects across other socioeconomic dimensions.