Abstract: This paper provides evidence that exposure to shocks that trigger population outflows leads to early marriage by young women, putting them on a poor-life development path. Exploiting a novel dataset and the plausibly exogenous occurrence of earthquakes within Indonesian provinces, I show that an earthquake raises the annual hazard of women marrying before the age of 18 by 44%, compared to non-exposed young women. The overall effect of earthquakes on women’s age at marriage masks substantial heterogeneity. The effects are larger for earthquake-induced migrant versus left-behind women. By obtaining informal insurance from marriage, induced migrants marry earlier as a financial coping strategy: a marriage payment, an increase in labour return when the husband joins the household, and social integration in receiving communities. This is not the case for left-behind women. I find evidence that a supply shock drives this result. Large population outflows and school building destruction that leads to a drop in schooling explain the results for left-behind women. 

Abstract: What are the long-term impacts of large inflows of forcibly displaced persons on displaced-hosting social participation outcomes? This paper tackles this question by exploiting the construction of reservoirs during the Spanish dictatorship (1936-1975), which forced thousands of people into displacement. I profit from the margin of whether a pre-dictatorship project of 1933 planned the closest reservoir to a municipality, its size and distance to implement an instrumental variable approach. For this purpose, I rely on a newly-collected historical panel dataset on forced displacement and social participation. The results show a long-term and sizable decrease in voter turnout and the number of associations created in \textit{host} communities. In turn, the number of the forcibly displaced population relative to the natives mitigates the impacts. I propose two mechanisms: general and institutional trust. A reservoir impacted natives and forcibly displaced populations differently, leading to inter-group clashes with long-lasting effects on a decrease in between-group and institutional trust.

Abstract: Disease eradication is the holy grail of all global health efforts. And, we are closer than ever to ending polio, but the increasing number of internally displaced people (IDP) could pose new challenges. What are the impacts of IDP inflows on host communities' polio incidence? To tackle this question, we use the mass displacement of the population from the conflict-affected Federally Administered Tribal Areas (F.A.T.A.) to other districts in Pakistan between 2008 and 2022. In a difference-in-differences approach, we compare the new polio cases in districts closer and farther away from the F.A.T.A. border before and after the conflict onset in 2008. Additionally, we exploit the spatial distribution of districts with respect to the pre-colonial region of Pashtunistan to define the sample. The results show that an increase of one standard deviation in predicted inflows results in 0.002 additional polio cases per 100,000 inhabitants, corresponding to 30% of the mean incidence. There are two underlying mechanisms: low prevention (insufficient vaccine opportunities for IDP children) and precarious health conditions in host communities (overpopulated communities and the congestion of health services).