Dynamics of Global Emission Permit Prices and Regional Social Cost of Carbon Under Noncooperation (with Yongyang Cai and Hyeseon Shin) (link)
We build a dynamic multi-region model of climate and economy with emission permit trading among 12 aggregated regions in the world. We solve for the dynamic Nash equilibrium under noncooperation, wherein each region adheres to the emission cap constraints following commitments that were first outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement and updated in subsequent years. Our model shows that the emission permit price reaches $811 per ton of carbon by 2050. We demonstrate that a regional carbon tax is complementary to the global cap-and-trade system, and the optimal regional carbon tax is equal to the difference between the regional marginal abatement cost and the permit price.
Ramping Up Emissions? The Implications of Intermittent Renewables for Thermal Power Plant Pollution
Policymakers increasingly advocate renewable energy to reduce emissions and enhance air quality. However, intermittent solar and wind power require conventional plants to frequently ramp output, causing inefficiencies and increased nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. This study offers the first empirical, multi-state analysis of ramping-induced emissions in the U.S. from 2010 to 2021. Results indicate ramping significantly elevates NOx emissions, notably in late afternoons, exacerbating ozone issues. Older plants and solid-fuel EGUs show greater emissions penalties. Thus, managing ramping externalities through fuel shifts, battery storage, demand management, and flexible generation is crucial for aligning renewable integration strategies with climate and air quality goals.