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Research Interests:
- Socio-Economic Modeling & Forecasting
- Socio-Economic Policy: Theory & Practice
- Decision Making Support in Managing Economic Processes
Chronology of Events
Chronology of Events
On December 3, 2025, I delivered a masterclass titled "Current Issues in Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in Uzbekistan" at the Training Center under the Ministry of Economy and Finance for the Ministry's central office staff.
The session began with an assessment of the country's macroeconomic situation, focusing on key macroeconomic imbalances. Participants then explored the objectives, principles, and mechanisms of fiscal and monetary policy interaction. I presented practical approaches to analyzing and forecasting imbalances within these sectors. I hope that the masterclass enhanced the staff's expertise in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting—skills essential for improving public finance management and money supply control in the Republic.
To reduce the scale of the shadow economy, the Presidential Decree of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated January 8, 2019, No. UP-5614, "On Additional Measures to Ensure Further Economic Development and Increase the Efficiency of Economic Policy," approved the "Roadmap for Major Structural Reforms for 2019–2021." In accordance with this document, the development of a dedicated Program for the Reduction of the Shadow Economy was mandated.
To address the challenges of the informal sector, a group of national consultants—including specialists from the Ministry of Economy and Industry (A. Khudaynazarov, PhD; I. Mamatkulov, PhD), the Central Bank (D. Kholmurodov), DGP Research & Consulting (A. Akhmadaliev), and international expert Prof. V. Burov (Russia)—conducted an extensive study on the size, structure, and drivers of the shadow economy in Uzbekistan. The project culminated in the analytical report "The Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan: Causes, Scale, and Reduction Pathways" (edited by A. Khudaynazarov, PhD).
On September 17, 2019, the Ministry of Economy and Industry hosted a Roundtable where the research findings were presented. As a key member of the research group, I delivered two presentations:
"Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan Using the MIMIC Model"
"Strategic Directions for Reducing the Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan"
This study represents a milestone for Uzbekistan, as it was the first to provide a comprehensive model-based estimation of the informal sector. Unlike previous qualitative descriptions, our team implemented nine distinct estimation methods for the first time in the country’s history.
On August 28, the Ministry of Economy and Industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan hosted a high-level Roundtable to discuss the "Concept for the Comprehensive Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030." The event brought together international experts from the United Arab Emirates, the United Nations (UN), the UNDP, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), alongside senior officials from national ministries and leading researchers.
The discussion focused on international best practices for long-term development strategies and the draft Concept developed by the Ministry of Economy and Industry. The initial framework of this Concept was authored earlier this year by experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IFMR). Since its inception, the document has undergone significant refinement, incorporating critical feedback from international organizations and government stakeholders.
Representing both the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research and serving as an ADB National Consultant, I presented a report titled: "The Concept for the Comprehensive Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030: Recommendations for Improvement."
On May 17, 2019, the Hyatt Regency Tashkent hosted a landmark international forum initiated by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Uzbekistan in partnership with the Agency for Information and Mass Communications.
The event was dedicated to strategic measures aimed at enhancing Uzbekistan's global standing, as outlined in Presidential Decrees. Key topics included:
The introduction of National Ratings across various sectors.
The establishment of a National Monitoring and Evaluation System to track Uzbekistan's position in global indices.
The socio-economic impact of improving the country’s international reputation.
During the forum, I delivered a presentation titled: "Strategies for Improving Uzbekistan’s Ranking in the Index of Economic Freedom".
The forum served as a high-level networking platform, attended by representatives of international banks, credit rating agencies (CRAs), and financial institutions. Also in attendance were heads of foreign embassies, international organizations accredited in Uzbekistan, and independent global experts.
To address the challenges of the informal sector, the Presidential Decree of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Jan 8, 2019, No. UP-5614), "On Additional Measures to Ensure Further Economic Development and Increase the Efficiency of Economic Policy," approved a comprehensive Roadmap for Major Structural Reforms (2019–2021). A key mandate of this document was the development of a national Program for the Reduction of the Shadow Economy.
Recognizing that Uzbekistan lacked a robust, science-based assessment of the informal sector, a high-level Roundtable was convened on February 26, 2018, at the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IFMR). The goal was to design a research framework and assemble a team of highly qualified experts.
The event, titled "Assessing the Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan: Factor Analysis and Strategies for Radical Reduction," was attended by key stakeholders from government ministries and international organizations.
At this meeting, I delivered a foundational report: "The Shadow Economy: Conceptual Framework and Measurement Methodologies". Following the presentation, participants discussed international best practices, estimation techniques specific to the Uzbek context, and a collaborative action plan for the national study.
I am pleased to announce the publication of my textbook, "Fundamentals of Systems Analysis" (Tizimli tahlil asoslari), published in the Uzbek language. The textbook was officially approved for publication by the Ministry of Higher and Secondary Special Education of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Order dated August 24, 2017).
The manuscript was developed in 2014 during my tenure as the Head of the Department of Legal Informatics and Systems Analysis at Tashkent State University of Law.
While specifically tailored for law students, the methodology and content are designed to be highly effective for students across all Social Sciences disciplines. The textbook introduces several pioneering topics to the national curriculum, including:
Game Theory in Legal Practice: For the first time in domestic legal education, students are introduced to the application of game theory models within the legal sphere.
Advanced Systems Modeling: New approaches to structural and functional analysis of complex social systems.
On September 13, 2018, I participated in the International Conference "Capital Market of the Republic of Uzbekistan" held in Tashkent. This forum focused on the strategic development of the national financial infrastructure and investment climate.
During the conference, I delivered a presentation titled: "The Role of the Financial Market in the Economic Development of Uzbekistan". The report examined the critical link between capital market maturity and sustainable macroeconomic growth, emphasizing the need for robust financial intermediation to support national economic transitions.
Analytical Report "Vulnerable Employment in Uzbekistan: Current State, Challenges, and Solutions" published on August 22, 2018 (in Russian), was developed by a team of distinguished scholars and experts (A. Khudaynazarov, PhD; M. Akhunov, PhD; B. Mirkasimov, PhD; U. Aliev, PhD; O. Yuldashev, PhD; O. Nemirovskaya) under the scientific team leadership of Dr. A. Khudaynazarov.
The project was implemented as part of the UNDP initiative "Support to Strategic Research for Sustainable Development."
The report synthesizes the results of six thematic studies focused on critical aspects of the Uzbek labor market:
Institutional and Legal Regulation: Mechanisms for reducing precarious (unstable) employment.
Methodological and Statistical Support: Improving data quality for evidence-based policy.
Gender Equality: Enhancing economic activity and employment opportunities for women.
Youth Unemployment: Strategies for labor market integration of young specialists.
The Informal Sector: Approaches to formalizing employment.
Labor Migration: Streamlining and regulating external labor migration.
The report provides the Government of Uzbekistan with actionable, evidence-based recommendations to address systemic challenges in the labor market and foster sustainable socio-economic development.
From April 30 to May 11, 2018, I completed an advanced training course on "Macroeconometric Forecasting and Analysis," organized by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development at the Joint Vienna Institute (JVI) in Vienna, Austria.
The program was designed to deepen expertise in estimating macroeconometric models and their application for forecasting and policy analysis within central banks, ministries, and state research institutes.
Under the guidance of experts from the IMF, JVI, and distinguished guest professors, the course covered the theoretical foundations and practical applications of advanced econometric specifications, including:
Vector Autoregressive Models: Unrestricted, Structural, and Bayesian VAR (VAR, SVAR, BVAR).
Vector Error Correction Models: Unrestricted, Structural, and Bayesian VECM (VECM, SVECM, BVECM).
Factor-Augmented Models: Factor-Augmented VAR (FAVAR).
Mixed-Frequency Data Modeling: MIDAS and UMIDAS models.
In addition to model estimation, the course focused on the practical application of these models for conditional forecasting (scenario analysis) and developed expertise in forecast averaging and combination methodologies across multiple econometric models.
On April 11, 2018, the Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in collaboration with the Executive Committee of the Political Council of Uzbekistan's Liberal-Democratic Party, hosted a high-level seminar titled "Transition to the Inflation Targeting Regime in Uzbekistan: Theoretical Aspects, Practical Challenges, and Solutions."
I presented a detailed report focused on the international dimension of this transition: "Issues in Implementing the Inflation Targeting Regime: International Experience". The presentation analyzed global best practices, the necessary institutional prerequisites, and the potential hurdles for a developing economy transitioning to a price-stability-focused monetary policy.
On March 6, 2018, the Development Strategy Center hosted a Roundtable discussion dedicated to the analytical report: "Vulnerable Employment in Uzbekistan: Current State, Challenges, and Solutions."
The report was developed under my supervision as part of the UNDP project "Support to Strategic Research for Sustainable Development." This high-level study involved a consortium of leading specialists and researchers from:
The Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IFMR)
Westminster International University in Tashkent (WIUT)
A panel of distinguished independent researchers.
The roundtable served as a platform for expert dialogue, bringing together representatives from key national ministries and agencies, alongside experts from leading research institutes and academic centers. The discussion focused on translating research findings into actionable policy measures to address labor market vulnerabilities in Uzbekistan.
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