Selected Publications

"Tracking Trend Output Using Expectations Data", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 2025, 188, 539–565, with M. Mahony. (Links here to instructions on replication, associated data and STATA code)  

"Shock Persistence, Uncertainty and News-Driven Business Cycles", Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2024, 29, e43, with K. Shields and G. Turnip 

"Economic Conditions and Health: Local Effects, National Effect and Local Area Heterogeneity", Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, 2023, 214, 801-828, with K. Janke, C. Propper, K. Shields and M. Shields. 

"Fundamentals, regimes and exchange rate forecasts: Insights from a meta exchange rate model", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 123, with C. Aristidou and K. Shields. 

"Making Fiscal Adjustments Using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries", Economic Record, 2020, 96, 294-313, with K. Ong and K. Shields.  

"The Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview with Illustrations of its Use in Analysing Fiscal Policy", Economic Record, 2020, 96, 87-106, with J. Morley, K. Shields and M. S-L. Tan.  

"Evaluating the Use of Real-Time Data in Forecasting Output Levels and Recessionary Events in the US", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 2019, 182, 131-163, with C. Aristidou and K. Shields. 

"The Role of Uncertainty, Sentiment and Cross-Country Interactions in G7 Output Dynamics", Canadian Journal of Economics, 2018, 51, 391-418, with A. Garratt and K. Shields   

"Information Rigidities and the News-Adjusted Output Gap", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, 70, 1-17, with A. Garratt and K. Shields.  

"Forecasting Global Recessions in a GVAR Model of Actual and Expected Output", International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, 374-390, with A. Garratt and K. Shields.   

"The Meta Taylor Rule", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, 1, 73-98, with J. Morley and K. Shields. 

"Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods", 2013, 81, S3, 28-53, Manchester School, with N. Olekalns and K. Shields.   

"The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis", Economic Record, 2012, 88, 283, 495-516, with N. Olekalns, K. Shields and Z. Wang.  

"Public Sector Debt Dynamics: The Persistence and Sources of Shocks to Debt in Ten EU Countries", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, 277-298, with M. Antonini and J. Pires.    

"Financial Restraints and Private Investment: Evidence from a Nonstationary Panel", Economic Inquiry, 2013, 51, 1, 248-259, with M. Costantini, G. James and P. Demetriades. 

"Does One Size Fit All?; Modelling Macroeconomic Linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union", Economic Change and Restructuring, 2012, 45, 1, 45-70, with D. Fielding and K. Shields.    

"Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One?", North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, 22, 1, 43-60, with K. Shields. 

"Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010, 29, 3, 403-422 with A. Garratt.   

"Real Time Representations of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Model Uncertainty", International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, 81-102, with A. Garratt, E. Mise and K. Shields. 

"Real Time Representations of the Output Gap", Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 90, 4, 792-804, with A. Garratt, E. Mise and K. Shields. 

"Overcoming Measurment Error Problems in the Use of Survey Data on Expectations", Economic Record, 2007, 83, 303-316, with K. Shields. 

"The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone", Journal of African Economies, 2004, 13, 488-517, with D. Fielding and K. Shields (Reprinted in D. Fielding (ed.) Macroeconomic Policy in the Franc Zone, 2005, 38-63, Palgrave macmillan). 

"Forecast Uncertainty in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2003, 98, 464, 829-838, with A. Garratt, M.H. Pesaran and Y. Shin. 

"Corporate Profitability and the Dynamics of Competition in Emerging Markets: A Time Series Analysis", Economic Journal, 2003, 113, 491, 465-484, with J. Glen and A. Singh. 

"A Long Run Structural Macroeconometric Model of the UK Economy", Economic Journal, 2003, 113, 487, 412-455, with A. Garratt, M.H. Pesaran and Y. Shin. 

"Persistence of Profitability and Competition in Emerging Markets", Economics Letters, 2001, 72, 2, 247-253, with J. Glen and A. Singh. 

"Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1998", Manchester School, 2000, 68, 75-91, with K. Shields.  

"Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations; An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing, 1975-1996", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 4, Vol. 62, 463-490, with K. Shields. 

"Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Non-Linear Models", Journal of Econometrics, 2000, 95, 285-331, with K.J. van Garderen and M.H. Pesaran.   

"Cross-Country Interdependencies in Growth Dynamics: A Model of Output Growth in the G7 Economies, 1960-1994" Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1998, 134, 3, 367-403. 

"Growth Empirics: A Panel Approach - A Comment", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, 113, 319-323, with M.H. Pesaran and R. Smith.  

"Growth and Convergence in a Multicountry Empirical Stochastic Solow Model", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1997, 12, 4, 357-392, with M.H. Pesaran and R. Smith.  

"Modelling Economic Growth in the UK; An Econometric Case for Disaggregated Sectoral Analysis", Economic Modelling, 1997, 14, 369-394.  

"Choice Between Disaggregate and Aggregate Specifications Estimated by Instrumental Variable Methods", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1994, 12, 11-21, with M.H. Pesaran and R.G. Pierse.  

"Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing: A Multisectoral Analysis", Economic Journal, 1994, 104, 372-385. 

"Persistence Profiles and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Disaggregated Model of UK Output Growth", Ricerche Economiche, 1993, 47, 293-322, with M.H. Pesaran 

"Trade Unions, Relative Wages and the Employment of Young Persons in the UK", European Journal of Political Economy, 1993, 9, 3, pp. 333-356, with V. Borooah. 

"The Role of Sectoral Interactions in Wage Determination in the UK Economy", Economic Journal, 1993, 103, 416, pp. 21-55, with M.H. Pesaran. 

"Persistence of Shocks and their Sources in a Multisectoral Model of UK Output Growth", Economic Journal, 1992, 102, 411, pp. 342-356, with M.H. Pesaran and R.G. Pierse. 

"Persistence, Cointegration and Aggregation: A Disaggregated Analysis of Output Fluctuations in the US Economy", Journal of Econometrics, 1993, 56, pp. 57-88, with M.H. Pesaran and R.G. Pierse.  

"The Regional Dimension of Competitiveness in Manufacturing: Productivity, Employment and Wages in Northern Ireland and United Kingdom", Regional Studies, 1991, 25, pp. 219-229., with V.K. Borooah. 

"Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models", Economic Journal, 1990, Vol. 100, 400, pp. 137-150, with M.H. Pesaran and R.G. Pierse.  

"Institutional Investment, Mergers, and the Market for Corporate Control", International Journal of Industrial Organisation ,1989, Vol. 7, pp. 73-100, with A. Cosh, A. Hughes, and A. Singh. 

"The Effect of Changes in Britain's Industrial Structure on Relative Female Pay and Employment, 1960-1980", Economic Journal, 1988, Vol. 98, 392, pp. 818-832, with V. K. Borooah. 

"Inflation and Labour Market Adjustment : the UK Experience", Economica, 1988, Vol. 55, 219, pp. 409-416.