Research

Research Interests

Kevin Lee is an applied econometrician, specialising primarily in the area of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy design but developing and using econometric techniques that are applicable in finance and microeconomics too. He has particular expertise in building macroeconomic models and forecasting and using these methods in real-time decision-making. He has conducted empirical studies at the global level (relating to output growth and convergence across countries, and the nature of global recessions, for example), at the national level (concerned with the formulation of a country's monetary or fiscal policies, or the role of sectoral interactions on macroeconomic outcomes, say), and at the individual level (looking at firms' decisions on mergers and take-overs, for example, or individuals' wage bargaining, or survey respondents' use of information and expectation formation).

Research Projects

• The analysis of macroeconometric models and their use of data in real time on the project "Decision-Making using Macroeconomic Models", sponsored by various sources;

• The construction and use of a real-time database for Australia on the project "Australian Real-Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real-Time Policy Making", sponsored by the Australian Research Council;

• The development of a simple model of the UK economy on the project "Structural Modelling of the UK Economy within a VAR Framework using Quarterly and Monthly Data", sponsored under the ESRC's Programme in Macroeconomic Modelling;

• The analysis of actual and expected output growth in industries across the EU on the project "Expectation Formation, Business Confidence and Output Fluctuations", sponsored by the European Commission.

• The development and application of techniques for the analysis of non-linear dynamic models on the ESRC-sponsored project on the "Econometric Analysis of Non-Linear Dynamic Models with Applications in International Macroeconomics"

• The development of econometric methods for use in the analysis of `data fields' on the project "Issues in the Specification, Estimation and Testing of Models for Complex Datasets", sponsored under the ESRC's Initiative in the Analysis of Large and Complex Datasets (ALCD);

• "An Empirical Analysis of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Context of a Multisectoral Model", sponsored by the ESRC;

• The development of a theoretical framework suitable for the econometric analysis of disaggregated models including expectational variables on the ESRC-sponsored project on "Expectation Formation in Disaggregate Models".