Working Papers:
Mining the Energy Transition: Chinese Critical Mineral Investment and Protest in sub-Saharan Africa (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: China has become a major investor in critical mineral extraction worldwide. This paper examines how Chinese-owned mining projects affect local protest dynamics across fifteen sub-Saharan African countries from 2004 to 2023. Drawing on a novel geocoded panel of Chinese mining investments and a triple-differences identification strategy, the analysis finds that the opening of Chinese-owned mines increases the likelihood of local protest by 17 percentage points and raises the number of protest events by 57% relative to comparable non-Chinese operations. The effects are substantially weaker in countries with stronger democratic institutions and higher-quality governance. I find no evidence that Chinese mining increases corruption or reduces local economic well-being. Instead, satellite-based measures show that Chinese operations increase air pollution and reduce vegetation cover, indicating that environmental degradation is an important consequence of these investments. Chinese-owned mining is also associated with a higher prevalence of pollution-related illnesses and more environmentally motivated protests. Taken together, the findings suggest that environmental degradation is a key mechanism linking Chinese mining investment to local protest
Sanctions and Shields: The Impact of US Sanctions on Chinese Firms (with Jean-Francois Maystadt, Johannes Van Biesebroeck and, Nele Warrinnier) Recent Version [Previous version: KUDP DPS 24.01, CEPR DP18790]
Abstract: The United States increasingly uses sanctions against China to advance foreign policy goals. We analyze the economic impact on Chinese firms using stock market and accounting data from publicly-listed firms between 2018 and 2022. Upon designation, stock market valuations drop by 2 percentage points, translating to a cumulative market value loss of 65.4 billion RMB. We also find evidence that the Chinese government shields firms through preferential borrowing conditions, lower taxes, and increased subsidies, at a cost of 14 billion RMB. Unlike previous studies on Russia, political connections, rather than economic or strategic considerations primarily influence which firms receive support.
Tracing Sanctions through the Value Chain: Evidence from the US Cotton Ban (with Jean-Francois Maystadt and Johannes Van Biesebroeck)
Abstract: We investigate to what extent and in what way the US Cotton Ban on products originating from Xinjiang province affected Chinese exports. We find that direct exports of cotton and cotton products to the United States fell by 19% at the intensive margin and 4% at the extensive margin. While the import reduction is strongest for Chinese provinces sourcing most actively from Xinjiang, reductions in US imports from third countries correlate only very weakly with the extent to which countries source cotton inputs from China. The European Union did not impose sanctions, but its cotton related imports from China declined significantly as well. Our analysis demonstrates that this negative spillover effect is not due to lower prices, nor to EU countries indirectly facing the ban as they want to maintain access to the US market. The most likely reason for the import decline is European firms’ concerns about reputational damage associated with using cotton products sourced from China.
Work in Progress:
Publications:
Protectionism's adverse impact on renewable energy deployment: evidence from the European Union's import duties on China-made photovoltaic panels (with Yuk-Shing Cheng and Chi-keung Woo) Energy Policy (2025)