Working Papers:
Critical Mineral Extraction, Chinese Investment, and Protest in sub-Saharan Africa (Job Market Paper)
[draft available upon to request]
Abstract: China has become a leading investor in critical mineral extraction, a sector central to the global energy transition. This paper studies the impacts of Chinese-owned critical mineral mining operations on local protest activities in fifteen sub-Saharan African countries. Using a novel panel dataset with comprehensive coverage of Chinese investment in critical mineral extraction and a triple-differences research design, I find that the commencement of Chinese-owned mines increases both the probability of protest in the hosting areas by 15 percentage points and the number of protest events by 52% relative to comparable mines without Chinese ownership. These effects are weaker in more democratic settings, but do not vary systematically with environmental sensitivity. Analysis of potential channels shows that Chinese projects do not significantly affect perceived corruption or local economic development, but they do generate significant environmental costs, including higher PM2.5 concentrations, vegetation loss, and deforestation. Consistent with these findings, I provide suggestive evidence of adverse child health outcomes associated with Chinese mining operations. Taken together, the results highlight environmental degradation as a central channel linking Chinese critical mineral extraction to heightened local unrest.
Sanctions and Shields: The Impact of US Sanctions on Chinese Firms (with Jean-Francois Maystadt, Johannes Van Biesebroeck and, Nele Warrinnier) [draft available upon to request] [Previous version: KUDP DPS 24.01, CEPR DP18790]
Abstract: The United States increasingly uses sanctions against China to advance foreign policy goals. We analyze the economic impact on Chinese firms using stock market and accounting data from publicly-listed firms between 2018 and 2022. Upon designation, stock market valuations drop by 2 percentage points, translating to a cumulative market value loss of 65.4 billion RMB. We also find evidence that the Chinese government shields firms through preferential borrowing conditions, lower taxes, and increased subsidies, at a cost of 14 billion RMB. Unlike previous studies on Russia, political connections, rather than economic or strategic considerations primarily influence which firms receive support.
Work in Progress:
Tracing Effects of Sanctions through the Value Chain: Evidence from the US Cotton Ban (with Jean-Francois Maystadt and Johannes Van Biesebroeck)
Abstract: Targeted sanctions aimed at curbing human rights abuses have increased over the past two decades. This paper investigates the trade effects of the US Cotton Ban on imports originating from Xinjiang, implemented in December 2020 as a measure to combat forced labour. Using a triple-differences approach, we find that the sanction reduced China’s exports of cotton products to the US by 17% at the intensive margin and 5% at the extensive margin. Tracing domestic supply chains, we show that Xinjiang and other provinces reliant on Xinjiang’s cotton suffered the largest losses. Moreover, despite the EU does not impose any sanctions against Chinese products, we identify significant and negative indirect effects on China’s cotton-related exports to the EU. Our analysis suggests that these negative spillover effects likely stem from European firms’ concerns about reputational damage associated with using cotton products sourced from China.