Working Papers:
Mining the Energy Transition: Chinese Critical Mineral Investment and Protest in sub-Saharan Africa (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: China has become a major investor in critical mineral extraction, a sector central to the global energy transition. These investments have attracted growing scrutiny for their broader political and economic implications. This paper investigates how Chinese-owned critical mineral projects influence local protest dynamics across thirteen sub-Saharan African countries. Drawing on a novel geocoded panel of Chinese mining investments and a triple-differences identification strategy, the analysis finds that the opening of Chinese-owned mines increases the likelihood of local protest by 15 percentage points and raises the number of protest events by 52% relative to comparable non-Chinese operations. The effects are significantly weaker in countries with stronger democratic institutions and higher-quality governance but show no systematic heterogeneity with respect to local acceptance of China. Additional evidence indicates that Chinese mining operations elevate air pollution and reduce vegetation cover in surrounding communities. While there is no evidence of increased corruption or deteriorating economic well-being, the results point to negative environmental externalities as a key mechanism linking Chinese investment to heightened social unrest.
Sanctions and Shields: The Impact of US Sanctions on Chinese Firms (with Jean-Francois Maystadt, Johannes Van Biesebroeck and, Nele Warrinnier) Recent Version [Previous version: KUDP DPS 24.01, CEPR DP18790]
Abstract: The United States increasingly uses sanctions against China to advance foreign policy goals. We analyze the economic impact on Chinese firms using stock market and accounting data from publicly-listed firms between 2018 and 2022. Upon designation, stock market valuations drop by 2 percentage points, translating to a cumulative market value loss of 65.4 billion RMB. We also find evidence that the Chinese government shields firms through preferential borrowing conditions, lower taxes, and increased subsidies, at a cost of 14 billion RMB. Unlike previous studies on Russia, political connections, rather than economic or strategic considerations primarily influence which firms receive support.
Work in Progress:
Tracing Effects of Sanctions through the Value Chain: Evidence from the US Cotton Ban (with Jean-Francois Maystadt and Johannes Van Biesebroeck)
Abstract: Targeted sanctions aimed at curbing human rights abuses have increased over the past two decades. This paper investigates the trade effects of the US Cotton Ban on imports originating from Xinjiang, implemented in December 2020 as a measure to combat forced labour. Using a triple-differences approach, we find that the sanction reduced China’s exports of cotton products to the US by 17% at the intensive margin and 5% at the extensive margin. Tracing domestic supply chains, we show that Xinjiang and other provinces reliant on Xinjiang’s cotton suffered the largest losses. Moreover, despite the EU does not impose any sanctions against Chinese products, we identify significant and negative indirect effects on China’s cotton-related exports to the EU. Our analysis suggests that these negative spillover effects likely stem from European firms’ concerns about reputational damage associated with using cotton products sourced from China.
Publications:
Protectionism's adverse impact on renewable energy deployment: evidence from the European Union's import duties on China-made photovoltaic panels (with Yuk-Shing Cheng and Chi-keung Woo) Energy Policy (2025)