Research

Journal Articles

• “Transition to Democracy, Wages, and Productivity: Is There a Virtuous Cycle?” World Development, 175, March 2024, 106474 (with E. Taymaz and E. Voyvoda)

• “Siyasi Elitler, Siyasi Partiler Yasası ve Ekonomik İstikrar,” (Political Elites, Political Party Law and the Economic Stability), Ekonomi-TEK,  12 (2), 77-107, 2023.

• "Macro-Financial Spillovers,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 133,  May 2023, 102824. (with J. Cotter and M. Hallam)

• "On the Past, Present, and Future of the Diebold-Yilmaz Approach to Dynamic Network Connectedness," Journal of Econometrics, 234, Supplement (Jubilee Issue), 115-20, March 2023. (with F.X. Diebold)

• "Survey Data, Expectations, and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 205, Jan. 2023, A15-A17, (Editorial Introduction, with J. Beckmann and R. L. Czudaj)

• "Polarized politics of pandemic response and the Covid-19 connectedness across the US states," Covid Economics, Issue 57, 94-131, 13 November 2020. (with Umut Akovali)  (Here is the link to the VoxEU column on the paper) 

• “How Connected is the Global Sovereign Credit Risk Network?” Journal of Banking and Finance, 2020,  Vol. 113, April 2020. (with Gorkem Bostanci)

•  “Real-Financial Connectedness in the Swiss Economy,” Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2020, vol. 156, issue 1. (with E. Uluceviz)

• Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness, Journal of Applied Econometrics,  2018, vol. 33, No. 1, 1-15, 2018. (with M. Demirer, F. X. Diebold and L. Liu)

• Trans-Atlantic Equity Volatility Connectedness: U.S. and European Financial Institutions, 2004-2014, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2016, Vol. 14, No. 1, 81-127. (with F. X. Diebold)

• On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms, Journal of Econometrics, 2014, vol. 182, No. 1, 119-134 (with F. X. Diebold).

• Asymmetric Response to Monetary Policy Surprises at the Long-End of the Yield Curve, Journal of Macroeconomics,  2012, 34, 404-418. With S. Demiralp.(SSCI)

• Better to Give than to Receive: Forecast-Based Measurement of Volatility Spillovers, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 28, issue 1, pp. 57-66, January-March 2012. (with F. X. Diebold).

• Taking Stock: The Customs Union between Turkey and the EU Fifteen Years Later, South European Society and Politics, vol. 16, Issue 2, pp. 235-249, June 2011.

• Return and Volatility Spillovers among the East Asian Equity Markets Journal of Asian Economics, Vol 21, No. 3, 304-313, June 2010.

• Productivity Response to Reduction in Trade Barriers: Evidence From Turkish Manufacturing Plants Review of World Economics, Vol. 145(2), pp. 339-360, July 2009. (with S. Ozler).

• History Matters for the Export Decision: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry, World Development, Vol. 37(2), pp. 479-488, February 2009. (with S. Ozler and E. Taymaz).

• Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets, Economic Journal, Vol. 119, pp. 158-171, January 2009. (with F. X. Diebold).

• How Much Should the Primary Commodity Exports be Taxed? Nash and Stackelberg Equilibria in the Global Cocoa Market Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol 15(1), pp. 1-16, March 2006

• Volatility and Contagion: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange, Economic Systems, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 353-367, December 2004. (with E. Alper)

• Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 383-395, July 2003

• Imported Machinery for Export Competitiveness, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 23-48, 2002. (with A. Mody)

• Markov Chain Test for Time Dependence and Homogeneity: An Analytical and Empirical Evaluation, European Journal of Operations Research, Vol.137(3), pp. 524-543, 2002. (with B. Tan )

• Optimal Export Taxes in a Multicountry Framework, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 60, pp. 439-465, December 1999

• Is There Persistence in Manufacturing Export Growth? Evidence From Newly Industrializing Countries, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 53, pp. 447-470, December 1997. (with A. Mody)

• Privatization and Stock Market Efficiency: The British Experience, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 44, No.2, 113-133, May 1997. (with A. Hayri)

• On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of Finance, Vol. 49, No.2, pp. 727-735, June 1994. (with F. X. Diebold and J. Gardeazabal)

Articles in Edited Volume

• “Global Shocks and Asset Market Connectedness,” In Guglielmo Maria Caporale (Ed) Handbook of Financial Integration, Forthcoming, 2024, with M. Pericoli. 

• Commodity Connectedness, in E. Mendoza, E. Pasten and D. Saravia (eds.), Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects, and Policy Measures.  Santiago: Bank of Chile Central Banking Series, Vol. 25, pp. 97-136, April 2018. with F. X. Diebold and L. Liu. 

• Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness In S. J. Koopman and N. Shephard (eds.), Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics: Festschrift in Honor of Andrew Harvey's 65th Year, Oxford University Press, 2015, pp. 45-70. (with F. X. Diebold) 

• TTIP and EU-Turkish Economic Relations: Deepening the Customs Union, in Aydın-Düzgit, S., Huber, H., Müftüler-Baç, M., Keyman, E.F. and N. Tocci (eds) Global Turkey in Europe III. Democracy, Trade, and the Kurdish Question in Turkey-EU Relations, IAI Research Papers, Rome, Nuova Cultura, June 2015, 285 p.

•  “Foreign Ownership, Survival, and Growth Dynamics in Turkish Manufacturing,” in A. M. Ferragina, E. Taymaz and K. Yilmaz (eds.) Innovation, Globalization, and Firm Dynamics: Lessons for Enterprise Policy, Routledge, 2014. With E. Taymaz.

• The Intertemporal Relation Between Expected Return and Risk on Currency in C.F. Lee (Ed.), Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics, Springer Verlag, Forthcoming, 2015. (with T. G. Bali)

• “The EU–Turkey Customs Union Fifteen Years Later: Better, Yet not the Best Alternative,” in G. Avci and A. Carkoglu, Turkey and the EU: Accession and Reform, Routledge, August 2012. 

• "Industry," in M. Heper and S. Sayari (eds.), Routledge Handbook of Modern Turkey, June 2012,

• Challenges to Development in Our Globalizing World, in K. Dervis(Ed.) Think Tank 20:Global Perspectives on the Seoul G-20 Summit, pp. 43-46, November 2010 With Izak Atiyas and Fuat Keyman

• Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide (with F. X. Diebold), In T. Bollerslev, J. Russell and M. Watson (Eds.), Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honour of Robert F. Engle, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 97-116, March 2010.

• Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas, Financial Stability, Monetary Policy and Central Banking. Santiago: Bank of Chile, 2010. (with F.X. Diebold)

• Turkey’s Recent Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Performance (with U. Izmen), In Z. Onis and F. Senses (eds.), Turkey and the Global Economy, Routledge, October 2009.

• Labor Markets and Productivity in the Process of Globalization: Firm-Level Evidence from Turkey, ERF Research Report 0403, (Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey), Egypt, 2004. (with S. Ozler and E. Taymaz)

• Turkey’s Foreign Direct Investment Challenges: Competition, Rule of Law and the EU Accession, in Togan, S., ed. Turkey: Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union, Oxford University Press, June 2005. (with M. Dutz and M. Us)

• The Turkish Economy before the EU Accession Talks, in ed. M. Lake, The EU, and Turkey: A Glittering Prize or a Millstone? The Federal Trust for Education and Research, London, UK, June 2005. (with N. B. Gültekin)

• Domestic Needs for Foreign Finance and Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Developing Countries with Special Reference to the Turkish Experience, Turkish Studies 4(2), 68-92, 2003. (with E. Alper)“Market Development and Efficiency in Emerging Stock Markets,” Istanbul Stock Exchange, Finance Award Series, 3, 2002.  

Books 

• Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring Oxford University Press, 2015. (with F. X. Diebold)

• Innovation, Globalization, and Firm Dynamics: Lessons for Enterprise Policy, Editors: Anna M. Ferragina, Erol Taymaz and Kamil Yilmaz, Routledge, 2014. 

Working Papers 

• “Global Inflation Connectedness,” mimeo, Koç University, Sep. 2023 (submitted).

• “Unconventional Monetary Policy and Sovereign Bond Return Connectedness in the New Normal,” mimeo, with Umut Akovali, KU-TUSIAD ERF Working Paper No. 2101, June 2021.  

• “Producer Price Inflation Connectedness and Input-Output Networks,” Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 1813, August 2018, with Melisa N. Bilgin. 

• “Measuring Connectedness of the Real and the Financial Sectors of the U.S. Economy,” Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 1812, August 2018, with Erhan Uluceviz. 

•  “Bank Volatility Connectedness in the SouthEast Asia (SEACEN) Region,” Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 1807, March 2018; SEACEN Centre Research Studies Paper, RP101, July 2017.

• “Financial Sector Volatility Connectedness and Equity Returns,” Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 1803, January 2018, with Mert Demirer and Umut Gokcen (under revision).

• “Measuring Dynamic Connectedness with Large Bayesian VAR Models,” Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 1802, January 2018, with Dimitris Korobilis (currently under revision).

•  “Mixed-Frequency Macro-Financial Spillovers,” Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, Working Paper 1704, February 2017, with John Cotter and Mark Hallam (currently under revision).

• “Political Economy of Industrial Policy in Turkey: The Case of Automotive Industry,” TUSIAD-Sabanci Competition Forum, Working Paper 2016-1, October 2016.

Research Grants

• “Enflasyon Bağlanmışlığı ve Yer Çekimi Modeli,” (Inflation Connectedness and the Gravity Model), TUBITAK National Outstanding Researcher Grant , 2022-2025.

•  “Expanding the Frontiers of Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness” Research Grant by SAP, November 2015 – November 2016. 

• "Investigating Connectedness Between the Real and Financial Sides of the Economy," TUBITAK Research Grant (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey), January 2015 – 2016 .

• “Estimating Cost Functions and Profit Margins Using Plant Level Data from the Turkish Manufacturing Industry,"  TUBITAK Research Grant, September 2013 – November 2014.

• ”The Network Topology of Variance Decompositions and Measurement of the Connectedness of Financial Markets,"  TUBITAK Research Grant, May 2012 - April 2013.

• “The impact of FDI on firm survival and employment: a comparative analysis for Turkey and Italy,”  FEMISE Research Grant, July 2011 – December 2012. With A. M. Ferragina, F. Reganati, E. Taymaz, and Y. Üçdogruk.

• “The Role of Business Services on Innovation, Productivity, Employment and Exports of Spanish and Turkish Manufacturing Firms,”  FEMISE (Forum Euro-Mediterranéen des Instituts Economiques) Research Grant, 2009-2010. With J. A. Camacho, M. Dovis, J. Milgram, T. Pamukcu, and E. Taymaz.

• "The Wealth Channel Revisited:  The Role of Anticipated Monetary Policy on Consumption and Lending," TUBITAK Research Grant, June 2007-June 2009. With S. Demiralp.

• "The Dynamics of Productivity, Technological Change and Structural Transformation in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry,"  TUBITAK Research Grant, June 2006-Jan 2008.  With E. Taymaz and E. Voyvoda.

• "How Does Trade Liberalization Affect Entry and Exit Costs on Export Markets: A Comparison of the Spanish and Turkish Experience Using Firm-Level Data,"  FEMISE Research Grant.  With M. Dovis, J. Milgram, T. Pamukçu and E. Taymaz, 2006-2007.

• "Foreign Direct Investment Strategy for Turkey,"  YASED (International Investors’ Association of Turkey) Research grant, September 2005-June 2006. 

• "A Sustainable Growth Strategy for the Turkish Economy,"  TUSIAD  (Association of Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen) Research Grant, August 2004-June 2005. With U. Izmen and A. Filiztekin. 

• "Turkish Manufacturing Industry in a Globalizing World: A Plant Level Analysis,"  Economic Research Forum (ERF) for Arab countries, Iran and Turkey Research Grant, 2003-2004. With S. Ozler and E. Taymaz.

• "Disinflation and the Sustainable Growth: Turkish Economy at the turn of the 21st Century,"  TUSIAD Research grant, May 2002-January 2003. With C. Akcay and E. Alper.  

• International Experience with Currency Boards and Options for Turkey, TESEV (Turkish Economic and Social Research Foundation) Research Grant, August 1995-January 1996 (with Bülent Gültekin).