Publications
“Global Shocks and Asset Market Connectedness,” in Guglielmo Maria Caporale (Ed) Handbook of Financial Integration, Edward Elgar Publishing, 108-133, May 2024. (with M. Pericoli).
“Transition to Democracy, Wages, and Productivity: Is There a Virtuous Cycle?” World Development, 175, March 2024, 106474 (with E. Taymaz and E. Voyvoda)
“Siyasi Elitler, Siyasi Partiler Yasası ve Ekonomik İstikrar,” (Political Elites, Political Party Law and the Economic Stability), Ekonomi-TEK, 12 (2), 77-107, 2023.
"Macro-Financial Spillovers,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 133, May 2023, 102824. (with J. Cotter and M. Hallam)
"On the Past, Present, and Future of the Diebold-Yilmaz Approach to Dynamic Network Connectedness," Journal of Econometrics, 234, Supplement (Jubilee Issue), 115-20, March 2023. (with F.X. Diebold)
"Survey Data, Expectations, and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 205, Jan. 2023, A15-A17, (Editorial Introduction, with J. Beckmann and R. L. Czudaj)
“Measuring Connectedness of the Real and the Financial Sectors of the U.S. Economy,” North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58, with E. Uluceviz, Nov. 2021, 101554. (SSCI)
"Polarized politics of pandemic response and the Covid-19 connectedness across the US states," Covid Economics, Issue 57, 94-131, 13 November 2020. (with Umut Akovali) (Here is the link to the VoxEU column.)
“How Connected is the Global Sovereign Credit Risk Network?” Journal of Banking and Finance, 2020, Vol. 113, April 2020. (with Gorkem Bostanci)
“Real-Financial Connectedness in the Swiss Economy,” Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 156(1). (with E. Uluceviz)
Commodity Connectedness, in E. Mendoza, E. Pasten and D. Saravia (eds.), Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects, and Policy Measures, Santiago: Bank of Chile Central Banking Series, Volume 25, 97-136, April 2018. (with F. X. Diebold and L. Liu)
Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, vol. 33, No. 1, 1-15. with M. Demirer, F. X. Diebold and L. Liu. (Richard Stone Prize in Applied Econometrics, 2020)
Trans-Atlantic Equity Volatility Connectedness: U.S. and European Financial Institutions, 2004-2014 Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2016, Vol. 14, No. 1, 81-127. (with F. X. Diebold)
On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms Journal of Econometrics, 2014, vol. 182, No. 1, 119-134. With F. X. Diebold. (Dennis J. Aigner Award for Applied Econometrics, Honorable Mention, most cited article)
Working Papers
A Gravity Model of Regional Inflation Connectedness in Turkiye, Koc University, mimeo, November 2023
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bond Market Connectedness in the New Normal, KU-TUSIAD ERF Working Paper, No. 2101, March 2021. (with Umut Akovali)
The political economy of automotive industry development policy in middle-income countries: A comparative analysis of Egypt, India, South Africa, and Turkey, ESID Working Paper No. 143, The University of Manchester, May 2020. (with Anthony Black, Pallavi Roy, and Amirah El-Haddad)
Producer Price Inflation Connectedness and Input-Output Networks, KU-TUSIAD ERF Working Paper, No. 1813, August 2018. (with Melisa N. Bilgin)
Financial Sector Volatility Connectedness and Equity Returns, KU-TUSIAD ERF Working Paper, No. 1803, January 2018. (with M. Demirer and U. Gokcen)
Measuring Dynamic Connectedness with Large Bayesian VAR Models, KU-TUSIAD ERF Working Paper, No. 1802, January 2018. (with D. Korobilis)
Teaching
Undergraduate: Macroeconomics, International Finance, International Trade, Turkish Economy
Graduate: Macroeconomic Theory, Time Series Econometrics.
MBA & Executive: Global Economics, Macroeconomic Analysis for Managers, Managerial Economics
Research Profile
Honors & Awards
Reprint of: “On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms," (Journal of Econometrics, 182, 119-134, 2014, with F.X. Diebold) Journal of Econometrics, 234, Supplement, 70-90, March 2023. (Jubilee Issue containing five papers selected from the Journal’s first 50 years).
Richard Stone Prize in Applied Econometrics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020.
Member, Bilim Akademisi (The Science Academy), 2016.
Outstanding Faculty Award, College of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Koç University, 2016.
Honorable Mention, Dennis J. Aigner Award for Applied Econometrics 2013-2014, Journal of Econometrics, 2016.
Best Paper Award 2012-2013, International Journal of Forecasting, 2015.
Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA), Encouragement Award in the Social Sciences & Humanities, 2003
Research Grants
TÜBİTAK 2247-A National Leader Researchers Program Grant, Inflation Connectedness and the Gravity Model, May 2022-2025.
SAP Grant, Expanding the Frontiers of Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Nov. 2015 – Nov. 2016.
TÜBİTAK Grant, Investigating Connectedness Between Real and Financial Sides of the Economy, Jan. 2015 – 2016.
TÜBİTAK Grant, Estimating Cost Functions and Profit Margins Using Plant Level Data from the Turkish Manufacturing Industry, Sep. 2013 – Nov. 2014.
TÜBİTAK Grant, The Network Topology of Variance Decompositions and Measurement of the Connectedness of Financial Markets, May 2012 - April 2013.
Policy Notes (in Turkish)
Enflasyon verileri ve TÜİK’in güvenilirliği, T24, 24/01/2024
6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremlerinin ekonomik etkisi, BETAM, 16/03/2023
İkinci Yüzyılın İktisat Kongresi, İzmir, 18/03/2023
Açık Radyo, AltınSaatler Programı, 17/03/2023
Bilim Akademisi Paneli , 15/03/2023
Deprem bölgesinin ülke ekonomisindeki yeri, sarkac.org, 24/02/2023
Türkiye’de enflasyon: TÜİK verilerine neden güvenemiyoruz? , sarkac.org, 3/02/2023
"Fahiş fiyat artışları" üzerine, sarkac.org, 15/10/2021
Piyasalarda yaşananları anlamak: Faiz, kur, enflasyon ve Merkez Bankası sarkac.org, 21/04/2021.
Döviz Kuru, Sanayide Üretim Maliyetleri ve Enflasyon, sarkac.org, 15/09/2018.
1980’den Günümüze Reel Döviz Kuru ve Ekonomi Politikalarının Sürdürülebilirliği, sarkac.org, 29/08/2018.
Türkiye’de Enflasyon Siyasi bir Olgudur – II, sarkac.org, 20/06/2018.
Türkiye’de Enflasyon Siyasi bir Olgudur – I, sarkac.org, 14/06/ 2018.
Presentations
Turkish Economic Association Conference 2023, Kemer, Antalya, November 16-18, 2023.
Seminar, Department of Economics, Fern Universitat in Hagen, September 26, 2023.
Seminar, Global Economic Prospects, Development Economics, The World Bank, Washington, D.C., August 24, 2023.
International Symposium on Forecasting, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, June 25-28, 2023.
Conference on “Financial Integration: Recent Research Developments,” Brunel University, London, 23-24 March 2023. (online)
Seminar, Research Department, Bank of Italy, June 21, 2022.
Econometric Society European Meetings, August 24-27, 2021 (online).
European Economic Association, Virtual Annual Conference, August 24-27, 2021 (online).
Discussant, “Global Realignment in Financial Market Dynamics,” by M.Billio, A.W.Lo, L.Pelizzion, M.G.Sherman & A.Zareei, 8th Asset Pricing Workshop, Bank of England and University of York (online), June 29, 2021.
International Association of Applied Econometrics, Annual Conference, June 22-25, 2021 (online).
Seminar, Research Department, Bank of Italy, June 3, 2021 (online)