Current working papers / selected work in progress:

Lifetime Consequences of Lost Instructional Time in the Classroom: Evidence from Shortened School Years

(CESifo Working Paper No. 9892, 2nd round R&R at Journal of Labor Economics)

This study estimates the lifetime effects of lost instructional time in the classroom on labor market performance. For identification, I use historical shifts in the school year schedule in Germany, which substantially shortened the duration of the affected school years with no adjustments in the core curriculum. The lost in-school instruction was mainly compensated for by assigning additional homework. Applying a difference-in-differences design to social security records, I find adverse effects of the policy on earnings and employment over nearly the entire occupational career. Unfavorable impacts on human capital are a plausible mechanism behind the deteriorated labor market outcomes. The earnings losses are driven by men, for whom the policy also elevated income inequality due to larger harm occurring at the bottom of the income distribution. 

Subsidized Small Jobs and Maternal Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run 

with Matthias Collischon and Regina T. Riphahn (supported by the DFG grant no. 281557410, R&R at Socio-Economic Review)

This paper investigates whether incentives generated by public policies contribute to motherhood penalties. Specifically, we study the consequences of subsidized small jobs, the German Minijobs, which are frequently taken up by first-time mothers upon labor market return. Using a combination of propensity score matching and an event study applied to administrative data, we compare the long-run child penalties of mothers who started out in a Minijob employment versus unsubsidized employment or non-employment after birth. We find persistent differences between the Minijobbers and otherwise employed mothers up to 10 years after the first birth, which suggests adverse unintended consequences of the small jobs subsidy program for maternal earnings and pensions. 

Timing of School Entry and Personality Traits in Adulthood

with Anton Barabasch and Andreas Leibing (email me for a draft) 

This paper investigates the long-run consequences of a later school start on personality traits. For identification, we exploit the statutory cutoff rules for school enrollment in Germany within a regression discontinuity design. The longitudinal nature of our personality data allows us to study the effects at different stages in adulthood. We find that a later school start persistently reduces the levels of neuroticism among women. The effects on other personality traits, if anything, are transitory and coincide with important life events. The findings potentially carry important implications for gender gaps in the labor market because women typically score significantly higher on neuroticism at all life stages, which puts them at a disadvantage. 

The Untold Story of Internal Migration in Germany: Life-cycle Patterns, Developments, and the Role of Education

with Anton Barabasch, Guido Heineck, and Sebastian Vogler (email me for a draft) 

This paper examines internal migration from a lifetime perspective using unique data on detailed residential biographies of individuals born in Germany between 1944 and 1986. We first describe life-cycle patterns of internal mobility and potential differences across space, time, and socio-demographic groups. We find substantial differences across the life course, with major location changes around important educational decisions and striking differences across groups, especially by educational attainment. We then investigate causality in the substantial education-mobility gradient. For identification, we exploit two policy-induced sources of variation, each shifting towards better education at a different margin of the ability distribution. Using a difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity design, we find no effect of these policies on internal mobility. 

School Starting Age and the Gender Pay Gap over the Life Cycle 

with Matthias Westphal (email me for a draft)

In this study, we re-examine the earnings effects of school entry regulations over the life cycle using high-quality administrative data on entire career trajectories from Germany. Compared to the literature, we examine arguably the most rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, which may be the main driver of long-term effects. We pay special attention to the effect heterogeneity by gender, as specific social norms for the cohorts under study (1945–1965) make differences likely. We find negligible effects of being a relatively older school starter on men's labor market trajectories, confirming previous literature. For women, however, the effects on earnings differ despite similar effects on educational attainment. A significant postponement of first childbirth seems to be a plausible mechanism behind the improved labor market outcomes.

Ukrainian Refugees, Native Workers, and Firm Performance: Evidence from four Countries 

with Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak, Klára Kalíšková, Tomáš Lichard, and Robert Pater (supported by the DFG grant no. 531021587)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in an unprecedented influx of Ukrainian refugees into several Central and Eastern European countries. This created the need to absorb and integrate a substantial number of potential workers into local labor markets. In this paper, we study the impact of Ukrainian refugees on incumbent workers and firms in several heavily affected countries, such as the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia. Specifically, we apply a shift-share instrumental variables design to country-specific datasets that combine administrative data on migrant stocks and flows with registry records on labor market outcomes of incumbent workers and performance measures of their firms. Cross-country comparisons allow us to test the role of specific institutions in shaping responses to the shock.

Covid-19, Work from Home, and Labor Market Trajectories in the Long Run

with Alena Bičáková and Klára Kalíšková (supported by the DFG grant no. 531021587)

The Covid-19 pandemic was a severe shock to employers and employees in the form of substantial restrictions on face-to-face meetings, leading to an unexpected increase in work-from-home (WFH) arrangements. This may have affected the way individuals work and the skills they need to successfully adapt to the new working conditions. In this paper, we use the sharp increase in WFH in Germany in March 2020 as a natural experiment to examine its long-term effects on the labor market trajectories and human capital of affected workers. To this end, we combine survey data on the occupational WFH potential of a given job with individual data on labor market biographies from German social security records. Using event studies and a difference-in-difference design, we compare the career trajectories of individuals who held jobs with high and low WFH potential immediately before the pandemic. We pay particular attention to potential gender differences, as the pandemic disproportionately affected parents, especially women.