Current working papers / selected work in progress:

School Starting Age and the Gender Pay Gap over the Life Cycle 

with Matthias Westphal (CESifo WP No. 12274, 2nd round R&R at the Journal of Applied Econometrics)

In this study, we re-examine and extend the evidence on the lifetime effects of school starting age on earnings by Fredriksson and Öckert (2014) for Sweden. Using German data for individuals born between 1945 and 1965, we study a more rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, a potential driver of long-term effects. We confirm negligible effects of later school entry for men and positive effects for women. These gender differences arise despite similar effects on educational attainment. By unfolding the gender gaps over the lifecycle, assessing fertility decisions, and maternal employment around the first birth, we show that childbirth postponement and increased labor market attachment after the first birth seem to be plausible mechanisms behind the improved labor market outcomes for women.

The Untold Story of Internal Migration in Germany: Life-cycle Patterns, Developments, and the Role of Education

with Anton Barabasch, Guido Heineck, and Sebastian Vogler (IZA DP No. 17948, submitted) 

This paper studies internal migration from a lifetime perspective using detailed residential histories for German cohorts 1944–1986. First, we document life-cycle mobility patterns and heterogeneity across space, time, and socio-demographic groups. We find substantial differences throughout the life course, particularly around important educational decisions, with striking differences across groups, especially by educational attainment. We then investigate whether the education-mobility gradient solely reflects selection on unobservables. To this end, we exploit two policy-induced sources of variation in education, each at a different margin of the ability distribution. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs, we find no effects on internal mobility. 

The Long Shadow: Health Effects of Lost Schooling across the Life Cycle

This study examines the long-term health consequences of reduced instructional time during compulsory schooling. I exploit a German reform of the school year schedule from the 1960s, which substantially shortened the length of two school years without adjusting the core curriculum. As a result, learning shifted out of the classroom, primarily through increased homework. Applying a difference-in-differences design to biographical administrative records, I estimate the impact of this policy on severe health issues, as measured by the number of long-term sick leave taken throughout individuals' careers. The results reveal a significant increase in long-term sick leave taking, suggesting that educational disruptions can have lasting effects on adult health.

The Effects of Universal Screening for Gestational Diabetes on Maternal and Child Health

with Anton Barabasch and Anica Kramer (email me for a draft)

This paper estimates the effects of universal screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on maternal and infant health at birth. GDM is the leading cause of excessive fetal growth and can have adverse long-term consequences for both mother and child. We evaluate a policy that introduced a full reimbursement for an oral GDM test by the German Statutory Health Insurance in July 2013, which led to a sharp increase in screening rates among pregnant women by almost 25 percentage points. Applying a difference-in-discontinuities design to administrative data on all hospital births, we find no economically significant effects of universal GDM screening on neonatal health and maternal birth outcomes. 

Work from Home and Health-Related Absenteeism

with Jean-Victor Alipour, Katharina Bettig, Christian Leßmann, and Valentin Lindlacher (in cooperation with the bifg, email me for a draft)

We study the effect of working from home (WFH) on health-related absenteeism. We draw on a monthly panel (2018–2023) of nearly 1.9 million workers insured under a major German statutory health insurance fund. Our identification strategy leverages the differential exposure to the unexpected shift to WFH in 2020, resulting in about one-quarter of German employees regularly working remotely today. Specifically, our difference-in-differences design compares sick leave take-up across workers with different WFH potential, i.e., the teleworkability of their occupation in February 2020. Our results imply a nontrivial lasting response to WFH. Compared to the pre-treatment mean, the monthly likelihood of sick leave take-up declined by 3.3% by 2023 due to a 10-percentage-point increase in WFH potential (comparable to a shift from performing and entertainment professions to media documentation and information services). These effects are driven by reductions in respiratory infections and musculoskeletal disorders, such as back pain. The response reflects not only behavioral changes in sick leave take-up, but also genuine health improvements.

Work from Home and Labor Market Trajectories in the Long Run

with Alena Bičáková, Klára Kalíšková, and Maike Steffen (supported by the DFG grant no. 531021587, email me for a draft)

The unexpected and lasting increase in work-from-home (WFH) arrangements induced by the Covid-19 pandemic has been well documented. We exploit the sharp increase in WFH as a natural experiment to examine its long-term effects on the labor market trajectories of affected workers using German social security data. Measuring WFH potential at the 5-digit occupational level, we employ a difference-in-difference design to compare the career trajectories of individuals in jobs with initially different WFH potential before and after the pandemic. Our findings suggest that greater exposure to WFH led to a permanent increase in employment. However, it also reduced earnings, indicating that workers are willing to pay for the option to WFH. The effects seem to be very similar for men and women, suggesting that WFH does not affect the existing gender pay gaps.

Ukrainian Refugees and the Labor Market Outcomes of Native Workers: Evidence from Four Countries 

with Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak, Klára Kalíšková, Tomáš Lichard, Robert Pater, Maike Steffen (supported by the DFG grant no. 531021587)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in an unprecedented influx of Ukrainian refugees into several Central and Eastern European countries. This created the need to absorb and integrate a substantial number of potential workers into local labor markets. In this paper, we study the impact of Ukrainian refugees on incumbent workers and firms in several heavily affected countries, such as the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia. Specifically, we apply a shift-share instrumental variables design to country-specific datasets that combine administrative data on migrant stocks and flows with registry records on labor market outcomes of incumbent workers and performance measures of their firms. Cross-country comparisons allow us to test the role of specific institutions in shaping responses to the shock.