Research

Abstract: 

Parole is a major part of a prisoner's interaction with the criminal justice system, and is linked to long-run prisoner outcomes. Using data from the state of Georgia, we explore the link between parole board racial composition and prisoner outcomes. We find that a higher proportion of Black members on the parole board is associated with better parole outcomes  for Black prisoners. Further, we document that the Black-White gap in parole violation rates, conditional on measures of parole success, closes when the parole board gains a Black member. Our findings suggest that more lenient parole decisions combined with greater parole supervision could explain the reductions in recidivism.

Abstract:

Recidivism remains a pervasive issue in the United States, with 40% returning to prison and 70% re-arrested within three years, yet there is little consensus on how to reduce it. This paper evaluates one such approach: conditional early release programs, which incentivize incarcerated individuals to complete in-prison programming and maintain good conduct in exchange for reduced sentences. We provide the first causal estimates of the impact of these programs by studying Pennsylvania’s Recidivism Risk Reduction Incentive (RRRI) program, enacted in 2008. Using judge leniency as an instrument, we estimate the causal effects of RRRI eligibility on re-conviction probability and post-release outcomes.

RRRI eligibility reduces time incarcerated by 47% and increases program completion rates by 3.6 percentage points (a 43% increase relative to the mean). We find an insignificant effect on new convictions post-release but document an 11 percentage point increase in parole violations (a 69% rise from the mean). These results suggest that while conditional early release programs offer a low-cost, scalable tool for justice systems, their design must account for potential trade-offs between accelerating release and maintaining parole compliance.