Research & Projects

Ongoing Research

"Big Apple, Small Shops?" Job Market Paper [Link]

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of a policy restricting commercial storefront size on business composition and commercial property 

values in New York City's Upper West Side. In 2012, the implementation of the ``Enhanced Commercial District Policy,'' limited new 

commercial establishments to storefronts no larger than 40 feet, aimed at dissuading large shops or chain shops from locating in the 

neighbourhood. Using geocoded business data and tax lot information from 2007-2019, I employ a triple difference-in-differences design 

comparing outcomes on treated versus untreated segments of the same commercial corridors.

I find no evidence of increased presence of independent businesses after policy implementation, instead finding increased presence of chain shops. Buildings with large facades experienced increased commercial land values, suggesting the fixed supply of buildings led to an increase in demand from larger shops to locate on these streets. Buildings with small facades experienced decreased commercial land values, attributed to the loss of option value post policy. These results inform ongoing debates about commercial policy restricting physical size and the balance  

between preserving local character and maintaining economic vitality in urban neighbourhoods.

"The Shape of Streets to Come" 

Abstract

Evidence on how existing urban morphology affects spatial sorting decisions of consumer amenities is limited. Using a case study of Barcelona, I estimate the relationship between building irregularities and the urban canyon affect of the street on commercial vacancies.  I find firm preference for shape of buildings to be nonlinear, with regular, mid-sized buildings yielding the lowest vacancy rates. Results also suggest the width-to-height ratio of the street to be highly predictive, with a wider canyon reducing vacancies, in line with traditional urban planning literature. There is also evidence to suggest that pedestrian only streets reduce commercial vacancies, contributing to a relevant ongoing discussion in Barcelona about the pedestrianzation of the Eixample grid. For this research I develop a methodology for estimating commercial vacancy rates.  

"The Impact of Chain Collapses on Retail Agglomeration" with Rosa Sanchis-Guarner and Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal

Abstract

The High Streets in British cities, traditionally the epicenter of consumer amenities, have recently undergone

significant transformations owing to shifts in consumer behavior, accompanied by a widely held perception in the media that

they are in decline. Using granular data on shop location we analyze the dynamics of retail and related activities during the

period 2007-2019. To address the endogeneity issue concerning store locations and amenities, we leverage the random

variation caused by the abrupt closure of 50 large UK chain stores, resulting in nearly 7000 shop closures in city retail centers.

These closures were driven by factors unrelated to individual shop performance or the characteristics of retail centers. We track

whether the shop location remains vacant or is replaced by a similar type and quality of business. We consider the spillover

effects of shop closures at several spatial levels. Our outcomes of interest include the count of new shops, vacancies, commercial rents.