Research & Projects

Ongoing Research

"Big Apple, Small Shops?" Job Market Paper

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of a policy restricting commercial storefront size on business composition and commercial property 

values in New York City's Upper West Side. In 2012, the implementation of the ``Enhanced Commercial District Policy,'' limited new 

commercial establishments to storefronts no larger than 40 feet, aimed at dissuading large shops or chain shops from locating in the 

neighbourhood. Using geocoded business data and tax lot information from 2007-2019, I employ a difference-in-differences design 

and a difference-in-discontinuities comparing outcomes on treated versus untreated segments of the same commercial corridors.

I find no evidence that the policy was successful in encouraging independent business to locate in the affected area, nor evidence of 

new overall economic activity. These results inform ongoing debates about commercial policy restricting physical size and the balance  

between preserving local character and maintaining economic vitality in urban neighbourhoods.

"The Impact of Chain Collapses on Retail Agglomeration" with Rosa Sanchis-Guarner and Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal

Abstract

The High Streets in British cities, traditionally the epicenter of consumer amenities, have recently undergone

significant transformations owing to shifts in consumer behavior, accompanied by a widely held perception in the media that

they are in decline. Using granular data on shop location we analyze the dynamics of retail and related activities during the

period 2007-2019. To address the endogeneity issue concerning store locations and amenities, we leverage the random

variation caused by the abrupt closure of 50 large UK chain stores, resulting in nearly 7000 shop closures in city retail centers.

These closures were driven by factors unrelated to individual shop performance or the characteristics of retail centers. We track

whether the shop location remains vacant or is replaced by a similar type and quality of business. We consider the spillover

effects of shop closures at several spatial levels. Our outcomes of interest include the count of new shops, vacancies, commercial rents. 

"Estimating Vacancies" 

Abstract

I develop a methodology for estimating commercial vacancy rates using data on other establishments. Using a rolling mode method of finding the average number of shops within a certain time period, I input a vacancy for each period where the number of shops is less than the mode. I account for staggered entry of shops and lots to account for potential spatial changes over time, and show that this method can be compared to both vacancy rates of the smallest granular nature, using exact coordinates, or aggregated to a larger scale such as the building or lot level. Estimating vacancy rates helps complete a holistic picture of the retail and commercial environment and aifds in understanding general trends at various scales, as vacancy rates are one of the key indicators of the economic viability of the area.