GSP Fall Forum 2024 (October 4, 2024)

The annual Gulf Scholars Program (GSP) Fall Forum welcomes students into the GSP network and provides participants with the opportunity to hear about student experiences in the program and how those experiences are preparing a new generation of change-agents and leaders for a more resilient, sustainable, and safer Gulf region (Timothy Filbert, GSP, NASEM).

Gulf Scholar Martravian (Tray) Carson shared the experiences of the impact of participating in the Gulf Scholars Program on his learning and research experiences, and the Gulf Impact Project: Projecting Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation for the Gulf Coast Region of the United States”.

The Gulf of Mexico project stimulates strong community engagement by improving the standard of civilian life and communities, while also seeking to preserve the Gulf Coast. In this study, we develop an open-source online computing infrastructure utilizing the cloud-based platform Google Earth alongside the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a downscaled global dataset with a spatial resolution of 25 km. This infrastructure is designed to evaluate future projections of climate change and climate variability in relation to historical data. We analyze climate model outputs using a range of spatiotemporal techniques to obtain the impacts of climate change. We specifically will focus on the maximum precipitation over a 5-day period (RX5day), the maximum one-day precipitation (RX1day), total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), the hottest day (Tx), the coldest day (TN), the number of frost days (FD), and the number of summer days (SU) of the year, among others.

We concentrate on the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) region of the United States, to project extreme temperatures and precipitation patterns through the end of 2100. Our approach involves comparing climate models with historical ground-based observations, assessing likely future scenarios, and linking with coastal hazards. We assess the likelihood of extreme temperature and precipitation events exceeding the 95th and 99th percentiles, as well as specific absolute thresholds. Additionally, we analyze the intensity of consecutive precipitation days and consecutive heatwave days. This study identifies hotspot locations for extreme precipitation and temperature events. Our findings will aid in disaster mitigation strategies, the design of emergency warning systems, and enhance coastal resilience across the GOM.

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