計量・数理政治学会（JSQPS）2024年冬季集会プログラム

Japanese Society for Quantitative Political Science (JSQPS) 2024 Winter Meeting Program

日時と場所/Date and Place

• 2024年1月8日（月）/January 8 (Mon), 2024

• 学習院大学北1号館201教室ほか/North Bldg. No.1, Room 201, etc., Gakushuin University, Tokyo
  地図/Map: https://www.univ.gakushuin.ac.jp/en/access/
  会場へのアクセスは後日参加者に連絡します。/Directions to the building and rooms will be provided to participants at a later date.

• 対面開催/In-person meeting

参加登録/Registration

• 参加をご希望の方は、12月24日（日、日本時間）までにこちらのフォームからご登録をお願いします。報告者の方も懇親会の人数を確定するため必ず登録が必要です。/If you would like to participate, please register using this form by Sunday, December 24, JST. Presenters are also required to register to confirm attendee numbers for the reception.

• 収容定員により、参加登録は早期に締め切られる場合があります。/Registration may close early due to room capacity limits.

• 参加登録は締め切りました。/The registration was closed.

プログラム/Program

※報告者を太字で表記しています。/Presenters are indicated in bold font.

※セッション1以外の口頭報告セッションは2部屋で同時に開催されます。/Except for Session 1, all other oral presentation sessions will be held simultaneously in two rooms.

受付&開会/Registration and Greetings

8:50–9:15, Room 201

セッション1（英語）/Session 1 (in English)

9:20–10:50, Room 201

Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments

Kosuke Imai (Harvard University) and Michael Lingzhi Li (Harvard Business School)

Broken Beacon? How Political Turmoils in the U.S Undermine Public Perception of Democracy in China

Hanying Wei (Columbia University), Eunji Kim (Columbia University), and Junyan Jiang (Columbia University) 

Unraveling American Sympathies toward Israelis and Palestinians

Rikio Inouye (Princeton University), Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College), and Daniel Corstange (Columbia University)

セッション2（日本語）/Session 2 (in Japanese)

11:00–12:30, Room 201

The Cognitive Number of Parties

Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University) and Hirofumi Miwa (Gakushuin University)

Gendered Candidate Turnover?: The Relationship among Legislators’ Gender, Ideology, and Their Decision in France

鳥羽 真優子（東京大学）・佐々木 大（東京大学）

Examining Party Leader District Visits and Vote Share: A Case from Japanese Lower House Elections 

Michio Umeda (Komazawa University)

セッション3（英語）/Session 3 (in English)

11:00–12:30, Room 401

When International Organizations Help Domestic Leaders Persuade the Public: Avoiding Blame for Unpopular Policies

Saki Kuzushima (University of Michigan), Itsuki Umeyama (University of Tokyo), Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo), and Yuki Shiraito (University of Michigan)

Audience Costs and the Credibility of Public versus Private Threats in International Crises

Makito Takei (Tecnológico de Monterrey)

Hypothesis Testing for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity via an Adaptively Augmented Debiased Estimator

武石 将大（統計数理研究所）and Xuming He (Washington University in St. Louis)

昼休憩/Lunch Break

12:30–13:30

ポスター報告（日本語または英語）/Poster Presentations (in Japanese or English)

13:30–14:30, 部屋は後日連絡/Rooms TBA 

有権者による政治家評価の諸要因―ヴィネット実験を用いた探索的検証

髙木 顕心（同志社大学）

Analysis of Vote Share Changes with Nested-Choice Decomposition

齋藤 僚介（大阪大学）・五十嵐彰（大阪大学）

A Fast Item Response Theory Model for Cross-National Public Opinion Analysis

金髙 右京（早稲田大学）・貫井 光（早稲田大学）

Measuring Human Rights Naming and Shaming: A Text-as-Data Approach

周 源（神戸大学）

Tradeoffs in an Endogenous Selection Bias due to Missing and Measurement Error

Ran Nakao (Hiroshima City University), Yizhou Fan (Hiroshima University), and Kaixiang Kang (Hiroshima University)

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis for the Ignorability Assumption in Causal Inference

Tomoya Sasaki (MIT)

Reactive but Strategic Saliency Manipulation: A Dynamics of Party Politics and Constitutional Debates

石間 英雄（京都大学）・芦谷 圭祐（山形大学）

Dynamic Estimation of Ordered Latent Variables: Applications to Measuring Democracy and Human Rights

金髙 右京（早稲田大学）

Dirichlet Process Mixture of Gaussian Processes: A Nonparametric Unsupervised Model to Classify the Development of Democracy

呉 東文（ディップ株式会社）

個人主義的権威主義与党の機能

古澤 卓也（東京大学）

セッション4（英語）/Session 4 (in English)

14:40–16:10, Room 201

Do Electoral Institutions Affect Legislator Behavior? Evidence from Reapportionments in Japan, 1965-2016

Alexander Fouirnaies (University of Chicago) and Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

Clarifying the Threat of Populism: Party Organizational Strength and Electoral Success

Jiajia Zhou (University of Toronto)

Legislative Agenda and Behaviour in Japan: A Differentiated Effect of Electoral Reform

小原 健人（オックスフォード大学／東京大学）・川戸 健太竜（東京大学）

セッション5（英語）/Session 5 (in English)

14:40–16:10, Room 401

Addressing Measurement Errors in Ranking Questions for Social Sciences

Yuki Atsusaka (University of Houston) and Seo-young Silvia Kim (Sogang University)

An Academic Production Model Considering Long-Term Effects

Yizhou Fan (Hiroshima University), Ran Nakao (Hiroshima City University), and Kaixiang Kang (Hiroshima University)

Do Procedures Matter to Social Acceptance of Mining? Conjoint Experiment in Peru

Isamu Okada (Nagoya University)

コーヒーブレイク/Coffee Break

16:10–16:30, Room 201

セッション6（英語）/Session 6 (in English)

16:30–18:00, Room 201

Using Covariates to Improve Inference for the Preference-Incorporating Choice and Assignment (PICA) Design for Randomized Controlled Trials

Adam Kaplan (MIT) and Teppei Yamamoto (MIT)

Alliances and Conflict (De)escalation: Experimental Evidence from Japan

Yasuki Kudo (University of Kentucky) and Viet Hung Nguyen Cao (Waseda University)

Audience Cost or Posturing Premium? How Empty Threats Can Benefit Leaders

Renard Sexton (Emory University) and Nico Ravanilla (University of California, San Diego)

セッション7（英語）/Session 7 (in English)

16:30–18:00, Room 401

Political and Economic Protests in Authoritarian Regimes

Austin M. Mitchell (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Kana Inata, (Tokyo Metropolitan University), and Masaaki Higashijima, (University of Tokyo)

Eclipse: How Celestial Superstition and Tactical Darkness Shape Violence in Africa

Kyosuke Kikuta (Institute of Developing Economies)

Global Supply Chains, Conflict, and Cooperation

Nazim Uras Demir (University of California, Irvine / University of Tokyo)

閉会/Closing remarks

18:00–18:05, Room 201/401

懇親会/Reception (optional) 

18:15–, 場所は後日連絡/Place TBA

謝辞/Acknowledgement

2024年冬季大会の開催には、学習院大学法学部よりご協力を頂いております。　

The 2024 winter meeting is supported by unconditional grants from the Faculty of Law, Gakushuin University. We are grateful for their generous support.

2024年冬季集会実行委員会/Steering Committee for the 2024 Winter Meeting

• 松村尚子（神戸大学, 委員長）/Naoko Matsumura (Kobe University, chair)

• 松本朋子（東京理科大学）/Tomoko Matsumoto (Tokyo University of Science) 

• 三輪洋文（学習院大学）/Hirofumi Miwa (Gakushuin University)

お問い合わせは松村尚子（matsumura@people.kobe-u.ac.jp）までお願いします。
For inquiries, please contact Naoko Matsumura at matsumura@people.kobe-u.ac.jp