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About
About
This website is an online database consisting of historical data related to monetary policy in Japan. This website and most data were created and are updated with financial support from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of the Japanese Government through a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No. 23H00050) disbursed for the research project "A Quarter-Century Overview of Monetary Policy Under the New Bank of Japan Act and Prospects for the Next Generation." The project team is led by Jouchi Nakajima (principal investigator) and consists of Kenya Amano, Takuji Fueki, Masazumi Hattori, and Toshitaka Sekine as main contributors.
Terms of Use
Terms of Use
Datasets are estimated and released by researchers according to their research activities and do not reflect the official view of the Bank of Japan. Please cite the articles (or the website if the articles are unavailable) specified for each dataset when using their content. Please note that dataset use is at users' own risk.
Contact: Jouchi Nakajima (jouchi.nakajima<at>gmail.com)
Data
Trend inflation
Trend inflation
A regime-switching model of the Phillips curve is developed to estimate trend inflation. Real-time estimates of trend inflation, regime probabilities, and the term structure of the model-based inflation forecast are provided. See the paper for details.
The latest: From 1983/Q1 to 2025/Q1 (updated in 2025/Apr.)
Firms' inflation expectations
Firms' inflation expectations
The long-run time series of Japanese firms' inflation expectations since 1990 are estimated using the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey. The term structure of inflation expectations from 1- to 10-year horizons is provided. See the paper for details.
The latest: From 1990/Q4 to 2025/Q1 (updated in 2025/Apr.)
Natural rate of interest
Natural rate of interest
The natural rate of interest is estimated using the natural yield curve approach for Japan. The estimates at the short-term (1-year) and the long-term (10-year) maturities are provided. See the Appendix of the paper for details.
The latest: From 1995/Q1 to 2025/Q1 (updated in 2025/Apr.)
Monetary policy surprise
Monetary policy surprise
Monetary policy shocks are identified using high-frequency data for interest rate futures in Japan mainly during the unconventional monetary policy period. See the the paper for details.
The latest: From 1992/Jul. to 2020/Jan.
Shadow rate and term premium
Shadow rate and term premium
The shadow rate and term premium are estimated using a term structure model with an effective lower bound for Japan. The daily and monthly estimates of the shadow rate, term premiums, and expected rates are provided. See the paper for details.
The latest: From 1995/Jan. to 2025/May (updated in 2025/Jun.)
Macroeconomic uncertainty index
Macroeconomic uncertainty index
The macroeconomic uncertainty index is designed to gauge the degree of real-time variance of an unexplained component in the fluctuations of various economic indicators. The index was originally proposed for the U.S. economy. Japan's version is estimated and provided. See the paper for details.
The latest: From 1979/Jun. to 2025/Mar. (updated in 2025/May)
Japanese Government Bonds security-by-security data
Japanese Government Bonds security-by-security data
The time series of individual bond-level outstandings of Japanese government bonds (JGB) and those of Bank of Japan's holdings are compiled and provided. See the paper for details.
The latest: From 2001/Jun. to 2024/Nov. (updated in 2025/Jan.)
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