Natural rate of interest for Japan

The latest: From 1995/Q1 to 2025/Q2 (updated in 2025/Jul.)

Baseline specification of the natural yield curve model in Appendix of Nakajima et al. (2023)

 rstar.csv - Short-term (1-year) and long-term (10-year) natural rate of interest (mean estimates and 95% confidence intervals)

• Cite the below article when using this dataset.

• The dataset is estimated and released by J. Nakajima within his research activity.

• The dataset is not the official view of the Bank of Japan.

• The dataset is updated every quarter. The past figures are subject to updates.

Reference:

• Nakajima, J., N. Sudo, Y. Hogen, and Y. Takizuka (2023). "On the estimation of the natural yield curve" Discussion Paper Series A.753, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

[Japanese]