Research interests

Temporary employment

As part of the SECCOPA project, I examine topics related to temporary employment in Europe, which is the subject of several papers.

One paper examines the effect of temporary employment on wages.  Despite decades of research, there remains a lack of clarity about the effect of temporary employment on wages. Our goal is to provide a more holistic examination that combines within a single framework many issues that are often dealt with separately. Using fixed effects models with a dummy impact function and asymmetric effects, we study the wage effects of four distinct transitions: (1) a transition from unemployment into a temporary relative to (2) a permanent contract; and (3) a transition from a temporary into a permanent contract relative (4) to a transition from a permanent into a temporary contract. We use harmonized panel data from eight countries to examine the effect of these distinct transitions, over time after the transition occurs, and in a cross-national, comparative context. The effect of transitioning into temporary employment on wages is not negative. Instead, the effect of a transition from a permanent into a temporary contract is positive, but less positive than a transition from a temporary into a permanent contract. There is little difference in the wage effect of a transition from unemployment into a temporary relative to a permanent contract. The findings may be counter intuitive, but they are consistent with the theory of compensating wage differentials.  The paper is currently under review and a draft is available upon request.

A second paper examines the relationship between type of employment contract (temporary vs. permanent) and poverty exit.  While a temporary contract increases the risk of poverty, the other side remains unexamined.  Does a permanent contract represent a pathway out of poverty?  Using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, I apply separate linear probability models with individual fixed effects at the country-, country cluster-, and European-specific level.  The results suggest that staying in a full-time, temporary contract is as effective as a transition into a full-time, permanent contract on the probability of poverty exit.  Further, change in labor market conditions, as captured by the unemployment rate is an important factor affecting the probability of in-work poverty exit.  The findings are consistent across countries with different welfare state regimes.  The conclusion is that in-work poverty exit is less about welfare state generosity or contract types and more about good economic conditions and job stability.  The paper is currently under review and a draft is available upon request.

A third examines the trends and group distribution of temporary employment.  There is a perception that temporary employment is rising in Europe, but there is little evidence to support this. As an explanation, some suggest there are problems with survey data that lead to an underestimation of both the size and the growth of temporary work. However, we suggest that the problem is not one of data quality, but rather data type. Using data on 32 European countries, we compare and contrast changes in the temporary employment rate in a single period of time using cross-sectional data, with changes in the risk of experiencing temporary employment in multiple periods of time using longitudinal data.  The results suggest that the temporary employment rate has stagnated over time, but the risk of experiencing it is rising.  The contribution provides insight into the nature of employment experiences associated with insecurity.  The paper has been published by  the journal, European Societies and is available here.  

The fourth paper reviews the theory and evidence in the literature and data on temporary employment.  In Europe, temporary employment is the dominant form of nonstandard work and is a source of rising employment and wage insecurity.  However, despite decades of research, there is confusion about the consequences of temporary employment on wage and career mobility.  It is often stated that the consequences are "mixed."  We synthesized and analyzed published articles on the consequences of temporary employment on wage and career mobility in Europe.  Our results suggest that the mixed evidence is the result of misapplying common theoretical arguments and comparing different reference, demographic, and country groups with different welfare states.  While results vary across these factors, there is less variation within these factors.  Therefore, we know a lot more than is often understood about the consequences of temporary employment on wage and career mobility.  At the same time, we know a lot less than is often understood about the mechanisms through which temporary employment affects mobility.  By synthesising the empirical evidence and analysing the theoretical mechanisms, we create new opportunities for development in the field by increasing the scope of the debate about some questions and decreasing the scope of the debate about other questions.  The paper has been published by, Journal of European Social Policy and is available here.

Figure 1: Trends in the rate and risk of temporary employment over time