One outcome of the disconnect between rising economic output and a decline in quality employment opportunities is rising levels of precarious employment and related economic insecurity, which is the subject of two papers.
The first is a methodological exploration into the definition of economic insecurity, specifically income volatility. A mismatch exists between how changes in income are experienced by individuals and how research classifies those changes. Volatility is often defined as the standard deviation of income change in a study period which classifies all change in income as volatile and does not distinguish mobility from volatility. For example, stable, upward movements, like those received from an annual raise, are defined as volatility even though most people would consider this upward mobility, not volatility. Distinguishing mobility from volatility suggests that downward mobility is more volatile than upward mobility. This paper was published in the journal, Research in Social Stratification and Mobility and is available here.
In the second paper, I examine the unequal distribution (i.e. inequality) of income volatility over time. Examining changes in the characteristics of who experiences high levels of volatility suggests that factors that increase volatility remain unchanged (i.e. low income, single, ever unemployed, etc.), but factors that once reduced volatility now offer less protection (i.e. high income, married, never unemployed, etc.). Therefore, the characteristics that are often associated with providing economic security may still reduce the absolute probability of experiencing high levels of volatility, but the relative probability is rising. This paper was published in the journal, Social Science Research and is available here.
Figure 1: Examples of income, volatility, and mobility
(a) No income change
(b) Mean reverting income change
(c) Linear income change
(d) Curvilinear income change
Figure 2: Trends in the distribution of income volatility
Note: Graph illustrates the predicted probability of experiencing high income volatility over time by household characteristics from linear probability models with fixed effects. Controlling for gender, race, age, children in the household, self-employment, and mobility, which are set to their baseline values, "Secure HH" is defined as a household that is always married, has a high level of education (> HS), is in the top income quartile, and never unemployed. "Insecure HH" is defined as a household that are always single, has a low level of education (< HS), is in the bottom income quartile, and has experienced unemployment.