Research
Peer-reviewed publications
Cariolle, J., Elkhateeb, Y., Maurel, M. Misinformation technology: Internet use and political misperceptions in Africa, Journal of Comparative Economics, in press. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.01.002
Cariolle, J., & Da Piedade, C (2023). Digital Connectedness and Exports Upgrading: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Catching Up? . The World Economy. DOI: 10.1111/twec.13501. Appendix here.
Cariolle, J. & Le Goff, M (2023). Spatial Internet Spillovers in Manufacturing, Journal of Development Studies. DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2023.2204177 . Data & Codes.
Cariolle, J. & Sekeris, P. (2023). How export shocks corrupt: Theory and evidence. Journal of Government and Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2022.100057. Data & Code soon available.
Cariolle, J. International Connectivity and the Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa, Information Economics & Policy, 55, 2021. FERDI Working paper P264, CESifo WP #7415. DOI: 10.1016/j.infoecopol.2020.100901. Data & codes
Among the 5 most cited articles published in IEPOL since 2020 (as of 07/12/2023).
Abstract: In recent decades, international connectivity has improved significantly with the worldwide deployment of some 400 fiber submarine cables (SMCs), transmitting more than 99% of international telecommunications. If sub-Saharan African (SSA) has long remained excluded from this interconnection process, the maritime infrastructure network has recently densified and spurred an African connectivity catch-up. This paper estimates the impact of SMC deployment on the digital divide in a sample of 45 SSA countries covering the period of 1990–2014. Difference in differences (DID) estimations are conducted and highlight the particular contribution of SEACOM and EASSy cables, laid in 2009–2010, to Internet penetration in Eastern and Southern Africa. According to DID estimates, the rollout of these SMCs has yielded a 3–5 percentage point increase in Internet penetration rates in this region compared to the rest of SSA. This is a remarkable advancement, since this variation corresponds approximately to the average level of Internet penetration in the subcontinent prior to their arrival.
Cariolle, J., De Ubeda, A-A, & Geourjon, A-M. (2019) L’engagement dans l’intégration commerciale donne-t-il des résultats tangibles ? Principes et application à l’UEMOA d’un indice d’engagement des États, Revue d'Economie du Développement, 27(1), 73-112.
Brezis, E. S., & Cariolle, J. (2019). The Revolving Door, State Connections and Inequality of Influence in the Financial Sector. Journal of Institutional Economics. 15(4), 595-614. DOI: 10.1017/S1744137418000498.
Awarded the Elinor Oström Prize of the best full-length article published in 2019 in the JoIE
Abstract: This paper addresses the effects of the revolving door phenomenon on the inequality of influence among firms. It shows that firms are not equal in their capacities to benefit from state connections. We first develop a theoretical model introducing the notion of ‘bureaucratic capital’ and showing how the revolving door generates inequality in bureaucratic capital and in profits leading to inequality of influence. Then, this prediction is tested on a new database tracking the revolving door process involving the 20 biggest US commercial banks. We show that regulators who have created a large stock of ‘bureaucratic capital’ are more likely to be hired by the top five banks after leaving public office. We then develop indices of the inequality of influence between banks. We show that banks in the top revenue quintile concentrate around 80% of the stock of revolvers. Goldman Sachs appears as the prime beneficiary of this process, by concentrating almost 30% of the revolving door phenomenon.
Cariolle, J., Chalendard, C., Geourjon, A. M., & Laporte, B. (2019). Going beyond analysis of internal data to support customs modernization: A case study in Gabon. The World Economy, 42(6): 1850-1872. DOI: 10.1111/twec.12759
Cariolle, J., Goujon, M., & Guillaumont, P. (2016) Has Structural Economic Vulnerability Decreased in Least Developed Countries? Lessons Drawn from Retrospective Indices. Journal of Development Studies, 52(5):591-606. DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1098631
Cariolle, J. & Goujon, M. (2015). Measuring macroeconomic instability: A critical survey illustrated with exports series. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(1):1-26. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12036
Abstract: For at least 40 years, the analysis of the causes and consequences of macroeconomic instability has greatly deepened our understanding of the handicaps faced by developing countries. This concern on economic instability is evidenced by a broad spectrum of indicators, based on the deviation of observed values of a given economic aggregate from its reference or trend value. In general, the choice of this or that indicator is not discussed advocating that the resulting instability indicators are closely correlated. Focusing on measurements of instability in export revenue data for 134 countries from 1970 to 2005, this paper finds that this assertion may be true for variance-based indicators, measuring the average magnitude of deviations from the trend. However, great discrepancies may arise between different measures of the asymmetry or of the occurrence of extreme deviations around the trend when different trend computation methods are used. Our purpose is, therefore, to invite further discussions regarding the use of these indicators, and to highlight the different dimensions of instability, which have been so far unheeded by the economic literature.
Books & Chapters in Book
- Aker, J. & Cariolle, J. Mobile Phones and Development in Africa: Does the Evidence Meet the Hype? Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy Series, Palgrave MacMillan.
- Brezis, E. S., & Cariolle, J. (2017). Financial Sector Regulation and the Revolving Door in US Commercial Banks. In State, Institutions and Democracy (pp. 53-76). Springer, Cham.
Abstract: This chapter develops an index of the distortions due to the revolving door – The Revolving Door Index. This index focuses on the process by which these distortions arise, by measuring the concentration of revolving-door movements among private firms. We motivate this index through a literature review and a small theoretical model, and illustrate it by an empirical application using data on the five biggest US commercial banks. Our data show that there is a concentration of revolving-door movements which mainly benefits to Goldman Sachs. This index may have policy implications for improving financial sector regulation.
- Cariolle, J. "Corruption in turbulent times: A response to export booms and busts", in Commodity market instability and asymmetries in developing countries: Development impacts and policies, Sarris, A. (Ed), Ferdi, 92p, 2016.
Selected Working Papers
Imbruno, M., Cariolle, J., & de Melo, J. Digital connectivity and firm participation in foreign markets: An exporter-based bilateral analysis, CEPR Discussion Paper, May 2022. R&R at Journal of Development Economics.
Abstract: This paper studies how bilateral digital connectivity resulting from telecommunications submarine cable (SMC) deployment affects firm participation in export markets. Based on a heterogeneous firm model and using an unbalanced panel of bilateral trade data across 48 countries during the period 1997-2014, we find that an SMC connection between two countries is associated with an increase in the number of bilateral exporters in developed countries, but also with a reduction in the number of bilateral exporters in developing countries. This negative association between bilateral connectivity and firm participation in export markets appears to be stronger in the poorest developing areas: Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The growth in world connectivity spurred by SMCs deployment has therefore had a heterogeneous effect on firm decision to export, pushing more firms from high-income countries to enter export markets, and some incumbent exporters from lower-income countries to exit them.
Cariolle, J. & Carroll II, A.D. From phone access to food markets: Is mobile connectivity transforming West-African livelihoods? Ferdi Document de travail P341.Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of mobile connectivity on food market prices and household demand for food products in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) region. Leveraging data from harmonized World Bank LSMS household surveys across eight WAEMU countries, this study includes 59,319 households and 146 food products across 4,983 enumeration areas, with data gathered in 2018-2019. By using exposure to lightning strikes as an instrumental variable for cell tower coverage, we find that mobile connectivity reduces food price dispersion by spurring food prices catch-up in rural areas. Greater market demand for food products and lower reliance on self-consumption of food produced by rural households appear to be the drivers of this observed convergence in food price. Additionally, enhanced financial inclusion through mobile money and diversification of income sources through off-farm and non-agricultural activities are identified as key enablers of these observed changes. Overall, these results suggest that the digitalization of rural areas stimulates the transition from a subsistence to a market economy, thereby accelerating rural transformations, albeit with the added risk of leaving unconnected households behind.
Cariolle, J., Houngbonon, G.V., Silue, T., and Strusani, D. (2024) Submarine Cables, Internet Access Price and the Role of Competition and Regulation. Policy Research Working Paper, Washington, DC: World Bank Group. doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-10840 .Submarine cables (SMCs) enable international connectivity and are essential for highspeed Internet access. In this paper, we test their potential to improve the affordability of Internet access by supporting a price drop through cost savings or increased competition intensity. Our empirical framework relies on a dataset that combines the capacity of SMCs with price data on fixed and mobile Internet across 150 countries over a decade. Using a two-way fixed effects estimator, we found that the expansion of SMCs is associated with a statistically significant drop in the price of Internet access, up to 14-21 percent, depending on the technology, for every doubling of the capacity of SMCs, and with large regional disparities. We found that these effects stem from cost savings in the short run and tend to decline over time, concomitant with a rise in domestic telecom market concentration. We also found that these effects can be enhanced by telecom regulations, especially de-jure independence of the regulator, and the regulation of network interconnection and access, shared telecom infrastructure, and competition from international players across the broadband value chain. Our main findings are robust to alternative estimation strategies, including an instrumental variable and a staggered difference in differences.
Work-in-progress
Ameye, H., Cariolle, J. & Carroll II, A.D. Digitalization and nutrition security in the WAEMU.
Cariolle, J., Dsouza, A., & Carroll II, A.D. Mobile connectivity, on-farm and off-farm revenues in rural West Africa.