Research

"The Transmission of Climate Shocks: The Case of Floods in India" (with Alejandro Rábano)

This paper relates to a recent literature on the propagation of natural disasters through input-output linkages. We combine manufacturing data from the Annual Survey of Industries in India for the years 2000-2007 with the flood archive from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, and apply the empirical strategy suggested by de Chaisemartin and d'Haultfoeuille (2022). Output and capital decrease after the first flood hits a district, especially in areas with the lowest historical exposure. This suggests that adaptation plays a role in mediating the impact of extreme weather events. We also find that manufacturing industries that rely on agricultural inputs suffer a larger decrease in output and capital, and their output price increases, which provides evidence of a supply shock with persistent impacts. At the product level, we find some evidence of propagation through input-output linkages: when a high share of the production of a specific product is located in areas affected by extreme floods, establishments manufacturing the same type of product that are not directly affected experience an increase in the price and a decrease in the quantity produced. 

Presented at CREi International Lunch (Mar-2023),  BSE PhD Jamboree 2023 (May-2023), PSE Summer School on Climate Change (Jun-2023).

"Lessons from a Bubble Burst" (with Marc Hofstetter)

In 2008 two Ponzi schemes were shut down by the Colombian government. Using microdata for a sample of almost a quarter of a million of their investors we (i) describe their socioeconomic characteristics and (ii) estimate the individual and household risk factors associated with making a profit from such scams. Our paper contributes to the household finances, financial education, and financial literacy literatures. 

"The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges" (with Lisandro Abrego, Mario de Zamaroczy, Tunc Gursoy, Garth P. Nicholls,  and Hector Perez-Saiz). IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 20/04. International Monetary Fund. (May, 2020).

Political momentum towards Africa-wide free trade has been intensifying. In March 2018, over 40 countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. Once fully implemented, the AfCFTA is expected to cover all 55 African countries, with a combined GDP of about US$2.2 trillion. This SDN takes stock of recent trade developments in Sub-Saharan Africa and assesses the potential benefits and costs of the AfCFTA, as well as challenges to its successful implementation. In addition to increased trade flows both in existing and new products, the AfCFTA has the potential to generate substantial economic benefits for African countries. These benefits include higher income arising from increased efficiency and productivity from improved resource allocation, higher cross-border investment flows, and technology transfers. Besides lowering import tariffs, to ensure these benefits, African countries will need reduce other trade barriers by making more efficient their customs procedures, reducing their wide infrastructure gaps, and improving their business climates. At the same time, policy measures should be taken to mitigate the differential impact of trade liberalization on certain groups as resources are reallocated in the economy and activities migrate to locations with comparatively lower costs.