Research

Working Papers

"Beggar Thy Neighbor? Illicit Gold Trade and Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region" with Diego Malo Rico 

Abstract: We investigate the impact of establishing a gold refinery in Uganda on conflict dynamics at artisanal gold mining sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Using a difference-in-differences approach and high-resolution data on mining activities and conflict events, we find that the refinery’s opening significantly increased violence at neighboring artisanal mining sites in the DRC. To understand the underlying dynamics, we constructed a novel dataset that maps the distribution of violent groups and integrates smuggling route data from the DRC to Uganda. Our analysis reveals that certain armed groups strategically targeted mining sites around the smuggling route following the refinery's establishment, while the pre-existing control of some artisanal mining sites by armed actors partially mitigated the intensified conflicts. These findings highlight the complex effects of mineral-related regulations and smuggling in fragile regions, where weak state capacity and cross-border political-economic dynamics can exacerbate conflict and instability. Additionally, our results underscore the nuanced relationship between armed groups and local mining communities; in some cases, armed groups act as "stationary bandits," providing security to facilitate their extraction of resource values.

"In Search of Lost Peace: The Local Effects of Peacekeepers on Conflict Dynamics in Africa" 

Abstract: I examine the impact of UN peacekeeping interventions on short- and long-term conflict dynamics by constructing a high-resolution geo-coded dataset that combines peacekeeping deployment locations and conflict events. The event study results show that peacekeepers lead to a sustained reduction in the likelihood of conflict. However, conflict intensity—measured by conflict-related fatalities—escalates in the long run following the phased withdrawal of peacekeepers. Additionally, there is limited evidence that peacekeepers generate a "peace dividend" by revitalizing local economic activity, as indicated by nighttime light data. The limited long-term effectiveness highlights the challenges of international military intervention in conflict resolution. The contrasting findings on conflict likelihood and fatalities underscore the reactive nature of UN peacekeepers operating under the limited-use-of-force principle. A case study of UN peacekeeping operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2013 reveals that the offensive operation reduced fatalities. Finally, the lack of economic improvement further emphasizes the challenges of fostering recovery in post-conflict regions.

"Aiding Peace or Conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on Violence" with Dominic Rohner, Uwe Sunde, Oliver Vanden Eynde, and Austin Wright

Abstract: The unprecedented cuts to USAID in the immediate aftermath came as a surprise to many observers. The consequences of these cuts on conflict in recipient countries remain unclear. We present the first evidence from an empirical investigation of the impact of USAID cuts on violent events. The empirical results reveal a relative increase in conflict incidence, especially of protests and riots, after the announcement in regions that were affected most by these cuts.

Work in Progress

• Policy for Conflict Mitigation and Economic Resilience: A Meta-Analysis  (Exploratory Phase) 

• The Corridor of Violence: Market Access and the Spatial Pattern of Conflict (Exploratory Phase)

• The Impact of Peacekeeping Budget Cuts and Disengagement on Conflict Dynamics: Evidence from Sudan