Research

Working Papers

"Beggar Thy Neighbor? Illicit Gold Trade and Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region" with Diego Malo Rico (UCLouvain)

Abstract: We investigate the impact of establishing a gold refinery in Uganda on conflict dynamics at artisanal gold mining sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Using a difference-in-differences approach and high-resolution data on mining activities and conflict events, we find that the refinery’s opening significantly increased violence at neighboring artisanal mining sites in the DRC. To understand the underlying dynamics, we constructed a novel dataset that maps the distribution of violent groups and integrates smuggling route data from the DRC to Uganda. Our analysis reveals that certain armed groups strategically targeted mining sites around the smuggling route following the refinery's establishment, while the pre-existing control of some artisanal mining sites by armed actors partially mitigated the intensified conflicts. These findings highlight the complex effects of mineral-related regulations and smuggling in fragile regions, where weak state capacity and cross-border political-economic dynamics can exacerbate conflict and instability. Additionally, our results underscore the nuanced relationship between armed groups and local mining communities; in some cases, armed groups act as "stationary bandits," providing security to facilitate their extraction of resource values.

"In Search of Lost Peace: The Local Effects of Peacekeepers on Conflict Dynamics in Africa" 

Abstract: I examine the impact of UN peacekeeping interventions on short- and long-term conflict dynamics by constructing a high-resolution geo-coded dataset that combines peacekeeping deployment locations and conflict events. The event study results show that peacekeepers lead to a sustained reduction in the likelihood of conflict. However, conflict intensity—measured by conflict-related fatalities—escalates in the long run following the phased withdrawal of peacekeepers. Additionally, there is limited evidence that peacekeepers generate a "peace dividend" by revitalizing local economic activity, as indicated by nighttime light data. The limited long-term effectiveness highlights the challenges of international military intervention in conflict resolution. The contrasting findings on conflict likelihood and fatalities underscore the reactive nature of UN peacekeepers operating under the limited-use-of-force principle. A case study of UN peacekeeping operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2013 reveals that the offensive operation reduced fatalities. Finally, the lack of economic improvement further emphasizes the challenges of fostering recovery in post-conflict regions.