Research

Abstract: Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national humanitarian donor. The social and political effects of abrupt aid withdrawal are poorly understood, especially in fragile states where relief is a key safety net. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the shutdown’s impact on subnational conflict across Africa. Leveraging historical exposure to USAID programs, we show that conflict increased sharply after the shutdown in areas that previously received the most support. The increase spanned incidence and severity, including armed clashes, protests, and riots. The effects appeared immediately and persisted for months. Inclusive local institutions substantially mitigated these harms, underscoring vulnerability under weak governance and the capacity of institutions to buffer humanitarian and economic shocks.

Abstract: We study how improved access to international commodity markets affects the spatial organization of armed conflict. The opening of Uganda's first industrial gold refinery in 2016 created a refining and export channel that enabled artisanally mined gold from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to reach international bullion markets through Uganda. Using a difference-in-differences design that compares locations along predicted least-cost transport routes with other areas over 2011–2020, we find that battle incidence increased by 7–11 percentage points along major transport corridors after the refinery opened. In contrast, conflict increased much less in gold-producing areas, while nighttime lights rose only at mining sites. Our findings show that market integration need not intensify conflict where resources are extracted; instead, it can shift armed competition toward the transport corridors that connect production to global markets.

Abstract: I examine the impact of UN peacekeeping interventions on short- and long-term conflict dynamics by constructing a high-resolution geo-coded dataset that combines peacekeeping deployment locations and conflict events. The event study results show that peacekeepers lead to a sustained reduction in the likelihood of conflict. However, conflict intensity—measured by conflict-related fatalities—escalates in the long run following the phased withdrawal of peacekeepers. Additionally, there is limited evidence that peacekeepers generate a "peace dividend" by revitalizing local economic activity, as indicated by nighttime light data. The limited long-term effectiveness highlights the challenges of international military intervention in conflict resolution. The contrasting findings on conflict likelihood and fatalities underscore the reactive nature of UN peacekeepers operating under the limited-use-of-force principle. A case study of UN peacekeeping operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2013 reveals that the offensive operation reduced fatalities. Finally, the lack of economic improvement further emphasizes the challenges of fostering recovery in post-conflict regions.