Research

Abstract: Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national humanitarian donor. The social and political effects of abrupt aid withdrawal are poorly understood, especially in fragile states where relief is a key safety net. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the shutdown’s impact on subnational conflict across Africa. Leveraging historical exposure to USAID programs, we show that conflict increased sharply after the shutdown in areas that previously received the most support. The increase spanned incidence and severity, including armed clashes, protests, and riots. The effects appeared immediately and persisted for months. Inclusive local institutions substantially mitigated these harms, underscoring vulnerability under weak governance and the capacity of institutions to buffer humanitarian and economic shocks.

Abstract: We examine how a regional demand shock reshaped the geography of armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The opening of Uganda's first industrial gold refinery in 2016 raised declared Ugandan gold exports eightfold, integrating artisanally mined gold from eastern DRC into international bullion markets. Using a difference-in-differences design, we compare grid cells on predicted least-cost transport routes from artisanal gold mines to the Ugandan border with off-route cells over the period of 2011–2020. Battle incidence increases by 7–11 percentage points along high-flow corridors after 2016, with no comparable effect on off-route cells. Gold mining areas experience a more modest conflict increase, pointing to a spatial divergence between transit corridors and extraction sites. Armed-actor fragmentation rises along high-flow corridors after 2016, reflecting both the entry of new groups and a declining share of violence controlled by incumbent actors. Nighttime lights increase in gold-suitable production areas but not along pure transit corridors, indicating that income gains and armed contestation operate in distinct geographies. Results are robust to controlling for the Dodd-Frank Act's earlier disruption of the 3T mineral trade and to alternative measures of mining exposure; placebo tests using routes to unconnected destinations and conflict outcomes unrelated to territorial control show no comparable effects.

Abstract: I examine the impact of UN peacekeeping interventions on short- and long-term conflict dynamics by constructing a high-resolution geo-coded dataset that combines peacekeeping deployment locations and conflict events. The event study results show that peacekeepers lead to a sustained reduction in the likelihood of conflict. However, conflict intensity—measured by conflict-related fatalities—escalates in the long run following the phased withdrawal of peacekeepers. Additionally, there is limited evidence that peacekeepers generate a "peace dividend" by revitalizing local economic activity, as indicated by nighttime light data. The limited long-term effectiveness highlights the challenges of international military intervention in conflict resolution. The contrasting findings on conflict likelihood and fatalities underscore the reactive nature of UN peacekeepers operating under the limited-use-of-force principle. A case study of UN peacekeeping operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2013 reveals that the offensive operation reduced fatalities. Finally, the lack of economic improvement further emphasizes the challenges of fostering recovery in post-conflict regions.