LEO Projects

LEO data links together school, university and tax records for the population of English- educated students born in the 1985/86 cohort or later. Since 2017 we have been working with the data with the Dept. for Education, producing a series of pieces aimed at improving our understanding of the UK's higher education system.


Does it pay to get good grades at university?

(with Ben Waltmann, Ian Walker and Yu Zhu)

We look at the earnings premium at age 30 from different university grades. The benefit for a first class degree (the highest classification) over a 2.1 is around 7% for men and 4% for women, while the penalty from getting a 2.2 versus a 2.1 is much larger (11% for men and 7% for women). There is almost no payoff to a first in many subjects, while the payoff is very large for others, in particular law and economics. The payoff to a first class degree at the top institutions is quite large to men but close to zero for women. LINK

(with Elaine Drayton and Laura van der Erve)

We estimate "mobility rates" for English universities. The mobility rate is the access rate of the university, multiplied by the success rate at each institution (the chart plots one access against success - the unis towards the top right are the best performers). The most selective universities do not do well even though their success rates are generally high, as they have such low access rates. Rather, the best performers are less selective, London-based institutions. We also look at subjects and individual degrees (the interaction of subject and institution). Computing, pharmacology and law are notably high performers. LINK

(with Laura van der Erve, Ben Waltmann and Xiaowei Xu)

This project incorporates new data on where people live after leaving education. We show that graduates are much more mobile, and gain a lot from moving in terms of earning at age 30. We also study the areas which gain and lose graduates. We see that mobility exacerbates already significant regional educational inequalities. LINK

(with Laura van der Erve, Chris Belfield, Anna Vignoles. Matt Dickson, Yu Zhu, Ian Walker, Lorraine Dearden, Luke Sibieta and Franz Buscha)

This paper investigates the returns to different university degrees in the UK. We find massive variation in returns to degrees, even for those that are relatively similar in terms of selectivity. High returning degrees are difficult to predict from things that are observable to students when making their choices, such as league table rankings. We also see that the returns to selectivity differ enormously from subject to subject, suggesting that going to a more prestigious university does little to boost your earnings in subjects like the creative arts, but it does a lot in subjects like business studies. LINK

This report estimates the lifetime returns to university by the background characteristics of students, focussing on their parental SES and their ethnicity. Returns are generally highest for South Asian students who are much more likely to choose subjects with good labour market returns like medicine, economics, law and business. The lifetime returns for students from poorer backgrounds are just as high as the returns for students from richer backgrounds - but only because the outcomes for poor students who do not go to university are so disappointing. LINK

(with Laura van der Erve, Ben Waltmann, Yu Zhu, Ian Walker, Anna Vignoles, Matt Dickson and Franz Buscha)

We investigate the returns to postgraduate degrees by people's mid-30s. On average, they are shockingly low - the returns for Master's and PGCEs are close to zero for both men and women by this point. PhDs appear to boost women's earnings but lower men's earnings. We also look at how returns vary by Master's subject and find that many Master's degrees do not boost earnings at all - for men, only engineering, economics, business and law have a significant positive effect by age 35. Many Master's degrees significant worsen earnings by age 35 on average, which is important to know given the high and rising fees for postgraduate degrees. LINK

(with Ben Waltmann, Lorraine Dearden and Laura van der Erve)

We estimate the lifetime returns to higher education from the individual and taxpayer perspective. On average, individuals gain around £100k in DPV terms from a higher education degree, although this varies hugely by subject. Nevertheless, around 80% of all HE students personally gain from attending over their lifetime - a number which is helped by the high level of insurance in student loans. The government, meanwhile loses money on around half of all students. There are massive positive fiscal externalities from subjects like economics, but also many subject with negative fiscal externalities, including the creative arts. LINK