• • UPCOMING: Geopolitical Oil-Supply Scenarios and Macroeconomic Risks: A Bayesian Toolkit for Policy Analysis, forthcoming, BdE Ocassional Paper, Alonso, Kataryniuk, López-Salido, Pérez.

    • UPCOMING: Global Shocks, Corporate Moves: How Firms React to Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Disruptions, forthcoming, BdE Working Paper, Barbaglia, Diakonova, Díez-Catalán, Ghirelli, Lia, Pérez, Verzillo.

    • Rethinking GPR: the Sources of Geopolitical Risk. BdE WP 2522, 2025. Alonso, Diakonova, Pérez. Media: e-axes; SUERF Pol. Brief.

    • The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting. Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 5, Dec. 2024. Diakonova, Molina, Mueller, Pérez,  Rauh.

    • The EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy from a central banking perspective. Challenges to the monetary policy landscape from a changing geopolitical environment. European Central Bank Ocassional Paper 311, March 2023. Ioannou and Pérez, (co-leads), IRC Work Stream on EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy. Media: Webminar İstanbul Ticaret Üniv., ref.  Bruegel debate, ref. EU Council Spanish Presidency , ref. OECD  Sep 2023, …

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• Political polarization in Europe. Banco de España Working Paper 2533, 2025. Diakonova, Ghirelli, Pérez. Media: The Objective; Elcano; Business Insider, El Confidencial, El Español, El Comercio, La Razón, La Vanguardia.

• The public-private wage gap in the euro area a decade after the sovereign debt crisis. International Journal of Manpower, June 2025. Caballero, Gómez, Ghirelli, Pérez. Media: La Sexta TV, El Confidencial, El Español, Voxpopuli, Xataca, Artículo14, MSN.

• • • ¿Qué tamaño tendrá el sector público en Europa en la próxima década?, López-Vicente, Pérez, Rodríguez-Vives, Rojas. pp. 141-147 in Economía Pública y Gobernanza Multinivel, Ayala et al. (coord.). RIFDE & Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. 2025.

    • Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38, June/July 2023.  Paredes, Pérez, Pérez-Quirós. Media: VoxEU Column

    • The decline in public investment: social dominance or too-rigid fiscal rules?, Applied Economics, 54, pp. 1123-1136, 2022, Delgado-Téllez, Gordo, Kataryniuk, Pérez.

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• • • El Niño and La Niña: Revisiting the impact on food commodity prices and euro area consumer prices. International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming 2026. Borrallo, Cuadro, Ghirelli, Pérez.

    • Inflation and growth forecast errors and the sacrifice ratio of monetary policy in the euro area. Economics Letters, 257, December 2025. Ghirelli, Pérez, Santabárbara.

    • How Economic Policy Uncertainty Spreads Across Borders: the Case of Latin America. Banco de España WP 2549, 2025. Andres-Escayola, Molina, Pérez, Vidal. 

    • Using Newspapers for Textual Indicators: Guidance Based on Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Countries, Computational Economics, 64, Sep. 2024. Andrés-Escayola, Ghirelli, Molina, Pérez, Vidal. Media: SUERF Policy Brief

    • Measuring economic and policy uncertainty, and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain. Empirical Economics, 60. February 2021. Ghirelli, Gil, Pérez, Urtasun.

    • The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy, Lodge, Pérez et al. ECB Ocassional Paper, 263, Sept. 2021.

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