When the Going Gets Though: the Impact of Health Shocks on Divorce with Anna Sanz de Galdeano and Daniela Vuri
Does illness break marriages? We analyze how unexpected health shocks— sudden diagnoses of cancer, stroke, or heart attack—affect couple dissolution among older adults (50+). Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study and a quasi-experimental design comparing affected households to those experiencing similar shocks later, we find that health crises increase divorce probability by 19% relative to the baseline rate. This effect builds gradually rather than emerging immediately. We examine three explanatory channels: mental health deterioration, cognitive decline, and financial strain. The evidence indicates these factors play important roles in understanding how health shocks destabilize marriages in later life.