Topic: Climate Change - patterns, effects, and predictions
“Net zero by 2050!” We are approaching an urgent deadline, one which, if we miss, supposedly could mean dire consequences for the state of our only habitable planet. Climate change or global warming (whichever you prefer) is something people in this era, at the very least, have heard of before. There are a variety of ways to start to explain why people should care about climate change; however, let’s start with the keywords from the name of the topic, i.e., the changing climate. Our infrastructure, agriculture, etc., that we have developed as a human society, are reliant on the assumption that everything would stay the same or at least predictable in terms of weather and climate. We have no preparation for a drastically changing climate. However, despite that being the case, we’ve been experiencing many conditions which can majorly impact our way of living. Rising temperatures and major heatwaves can and have led to wildfires and droughts. Major winter storms increase our energy use so that our homes and other buildings stay warm. The list goes on.
Climate and atmospheric scientists have solidified the leading cause of our rapidly changing climate. However, the rising rally for change by scientists has also given rise to many skeptics, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Being skeptical is a reasonable part of human nature and even a vital part of the scientific process itself. So the most important first step to anything is always getting informed and learning more about the topic at hand. Why does everybody care about carbon dioxide and is so fixated on getting rid of fossil fuels? What is meant by “net zero emissions”? Can we, as humans, really make any impact or change to this issue? How do we know that things will not fix themselves?
Climate change in itself is actually not new for the Earth. The ice age, the major asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, and the developing ecosystem that allowed our human ecosystem to flourish. All of these are examples of Earth’s history with some form of climate change.
There are actually many factors that impact the change in Earth’s climate:
Changes in Earth’s orbit
Earth’s relative distance to the sun
Changes in the energy output of the sun
Changes in albedo (proportion of incoming light reflected off a surface) of Earth
Changes in the composition of Earth’s atmosphere (i.e., the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere)
Changes in ocean circulation
In short, all of these factors have an impact on how much heat the Earth absorbs from the sun as well as how much we reflect back to space. That last part is also an important aspect because all lifeforms on Earth can’t handle all of the warmth the sun has to offer us. So in general we ideally want the best balance between how much heat the Earth absorbs AND reflects back. There’s specifically a lot of focus on carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere because it’s the only one that has the largest drastic change (due to human activity) and the only one we have (direct) control over.
The Earth's atmosphere is a fascinating feature of our planet. It protects us from the harmful radiation constantly spewed out from the sun while trapping all the useful things we need to support life on Earth (oxygen, heat, etc.) Certain gases in the atmosphere absorb and thus help Earth retain heat that reaches us from the sun. These gases are called “greenhouse gases” (because of the “greenhouse effect” that create). These gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and several other gases.
Greenhouse gases are emitted both naturally and through human activities. However, since the 1950s, most of the warming of the Earth has been from human emissions of greenhouse gases. Many parts of the use of fossil fuels (both the extraction and burning of) as energy sources have a strong output of several greenhouse gases.
So in other words, greenhouse gases are also often thought of as a giant blanket for the Earth, retaining the warm thermal radiation we get from the sun. And if we have more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, then that means we are taking in more energy (and thus heat) than we are giving out. The blankets on Earth are getting thicker, and Earth is suffering the effects of overheating. Okay, maybe that analogy is being dragged out further than it needed, but the general point is made.
Climate change is an ever-present problem and one that needs action ASAP. One of the first and most important steps in taking any action is learning about and understanding the situation. And that's what the goal of this particular project is headed for. Understanding the connection between climate (temperature specifically) and CO2 concentration.
(updated questions as of 3/8/2023)
What kind of information reflects the effects/impacts of climate change?
Why is there so much focus on greenhouse gases (atmospheric concentration and emissions)?
What's the relationship between greenhouse gases and extreme weather anomalies (temperatures, weather changes, etc.)?
Will there be any noticeable (however subtle) effects from the lower carbon emissions during the covid pandemic?
What happens if we don't reach "net zero" by 2050?
What helps reduce the impacts?
How much impact does clean energy have?
How sensitive is the environment to human changes?
What are some common misconceptions?
Can my project findings help minimize the common misconceptions?
Can I produce results that demonstrate why other factors (like solar radiation) don't have as big of an impact on climate change as (human) greenhouse gas emissions?
Do observations match predictions? (connect theory with observation)
Can we use machine learning and climate data to predict extreme weather changes?
Can I use machine learning to build prediction models based on different future greenhouse gas concentration scenarios?
For example, prediction models in the scenario of finally reaching net-zero emission by a certain year (and predictions models if we didn't).
Will there be any "new" information or patterns some (unsupervised) machine learning models help us notice, we may not have noticed otherwise?