Working Papers
Presentations: Inter-Finance PhD Seminar, 89th Annual Meetings of the Midwest Economics Association, Federal Reserve Board Financial StabilityWorkshop, UCLA Anderson Finance Ph.D. Seminar, UCLA Macro Reading Group
Abstract: Private debt lenders, non-bank intermediaries that lend directly to firms, have grown rapidly over the last few decades, playing an increasingly important role in the global provision of credit to corporations. Through a structural principle-agent model, the paper explains the determinants for the rise of private debt and its segmentation in the corporate loan market in the context of the overall evolution of firm lending since the Great Financial Crisis. It argues based on developed theoretical propositions that private debt lenders finance firms that have a size between those of direct bank lending and syndicated lending due to both limitations in accessing syndicated markets due to firm moral hazard concerns and bank marginal costs associated with balance sheet lending. Through a calibration of the model, the paper shows that the joint increase in these margins can explain both the rise of private debt and the evolution of the distribution of loan and firm sizes to which each of these lenders has provided liquidity services since the Great Financial Crisis.
with Saki Bigio and Ali Haider Ismail
Presentations: Bank of Canada’s Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments and Finance, UCLA Macro Reading Group
Abstract: We revisit the Friedman-Schwartz vs. Tobin debate about the Federal Reserve's role in the Great Depression by using modern econometric and quantitative-modeling tools. We calibrate a general equilibrium model with a banking sector and an interbank market, building off Bianchi and Bigio (2022). Our model offers novel contributions to the literature through its banking-focused approach that interconnects money, credit, and output. This framework allows us to leverage aggregate banking data from the era, including interbank rates, to examine the Federal Reserve's policy pass-through into the aggregate economy. The model allows us to weigh the relative importance of various shocks affecting banks and the economy during the period. It is well-suited for conducting counterfactual analyses of policies proposed in Friedman and Schwartz's "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," particularly an expansion of discount window lending, while accounting for the constraints imposed by the gold standard.
Works in Progress
with Theodore Naff, under Census Bureau Project #3106
Presentations: Ares Research Workshop, Census Center for Economic Studies Research Workshop, Federal Reserve Board Financial Stability Workshop, FSRDC Annual Conference
Abstract: Since the Global Financial Crisis, private credit has emerged as the fastest-growing source of corporate financing in the United States. Despite this rise in prominence, the effect of private credit on firm-level real outcomes and innovation remains empirically underexplored as well as theoretically ambiguous because of the potential similarity with other forms of firm financing. This study aims to empirically estimate and theoretically model private credit’s impact on firm dynamics and reassess the broader question of capital structure impacts on real firm outcomes. To observe these effects, we identify firms receiving private credit in Preqin and Pitchbook then merge this set of firms with U.S. census micro-data to examine their outcomes. Our novel database provides transparency into over 17,000 private credit borrowers, showing they are typically mature, small-to medium-sized firms in intangible-intensive industries. We then employ an identification strategy that involves a difference-in-differences comparison between treated firms receiving private credit and a matched synthetic control group of the entirety of U.S. firms that are untreated. Our findings show that after receiving private credit financing for the first time, firm employment rises, especially for private equity-sponsored firms, while pay per worker declines. Innovation also increases post-treatment, reflected in higher patent grants.
with Anand Systla
Abstract: Paper provides a comprehensive summary of how private debt lenders are structured, their typical loan and firm profile as well as their performance. It also provides context for the broader corporate lending environment and how private debt compares and has emerged in this environment. Gaining a thorough understanding of the private debt market is key to fully understanding the complete effects of macroprudential bank regulations, changing firm financing behavior and overall macroeconomic stability.