Designing Debt Restructuring: The Adverse Effects on Labor Market Outcomes
Best PhD Paper Award at CEPR Conference on Household Finance; Ola Bengtsson Award for the best Finance PhD paper
Media: Svenska Dagbladet, Policy summary
Abstract: This paper studies how the design of debt restructuring programs shapes labor market outcomes. Using administrative data from Sweden and a novel examiner IV design, I find that participation reduces labor income and employment on average, with effects that persist after the program ends. These average effects mask substantial heterogeneity. This heterogeneity reflects differential exposure to upward repayment adjustments, which discourage unemployed participants from seeking work. I use a calibrated labor supply model to show that modest changes in program structure can improve welfare for both debtors and creditors. These findings challenge the practice of substantially adjusting repayment plans in response to income changes.
Media: ProMarket, RFBerlin Research Insights, Flamman, Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (print, 02.03.2026)
Abstract: Using Swedish administrative data and a stacked difference-in-differences design, we estimate substantial, persistent worker earnings losses following corporate acquisitions. Losses reflect displacement and lower earnings among target-firm stayers. We find no evidence that increased monopsony power explains stayer losses. These losses concentrate in acquisitions with pre-existing connections between the acquirer and target, particularly when an acquirer employee served on the target’s board before the transaction. In acquisitions with these board connections, acquirer profits and CEO pay rise while combined employment and revenue remain broadly stable. This joint pattern is consistent with rent redistribution from target workers toward executives and shareholders.
Involuntary Part-Time Employment and Labor Market Concentration (with Antoine Germain and Patrizia Massner) [New draft coming soon]
Abstract: Many part-time workers report a preference for increasing their working hours at their current hourly wage, which is inconsistent with standard models where workers choose hours at a given wage rate. In a model where firms set hours, we show that involuntary part-time employment arises when (i) the labor market is concentrated, (ii) the marginal hire yields more revenue than the marginal hour in equilibrium, and (iii) workers' are more elastic to wages than to non-wage amenities. Using Swedish administrative data linked to surveys, we provide a range of correlational evidence consistent with these predictions. Then, we use granular shocks to assess the causal effects of labor market concentration. We exploit mass layoffs as a novel instrument that shifts concentration for workers in non-layoff firms within the same local labor market. We find that an increase in labor market concentration reduces hours worked of part-time workers. Our findings suggest that labor market concentration is a key driver of the gap between desired hours and equilibrium hours.