Research & Policy Analysis

• Coverage: NBER Digest

• Ungated version: NBER Working Paper 33721 

• Replication data/code: ICPSR 224882 

Abstract: How does improving access to the supply of energy affect regional specialization in manufacturing? We evaluate the long-run employment impacts of pipelines constructed by the U.S. government during World War II to transport oil and gas from the oil fields of the Southwest to wartime industrial producers in the Northeast. The pipelines were built rapidly to connect end points along a direct path that minimized use of scarce construction materials. Postwar they were converted to supply en route customers, giving counties close to the pipelines access to a cheap and plentiful source of energy. Between 1940 and 1950, counties with better access to pipeline gas had larger increases in their share of employment in energy-intensive industries. These impacts persisted to the mid-1980s for all energy-intensive industries and to the late 1990s for the subset of industries intensive in the direct use of electricity, despite the disruptive effects of the 1970s energy crisis. Our findings are relevant for understanding energy-related path dependence in local economic development patterns and how government intervention in energy markets affects industry location in the short and long run.

• Ungated version: NBER Working Paper 29435 

Abstract: We assemble a dataset of the universe of economics and business journal articles published since 1980 to assess differences in the levels and trends of the global distribution of authorship in economics journals and citations by country/region, quality of journal, and fields of specialization. We document striking imbalances. While Western and Northern European authors have made substantial gains, the representation of authors based in low-income countries remains extremely low − an order of magnitude lower than the weight of their countries or regions in the global economy. Fields such as international or development economics where global diversification may have been expected have not experienced much increase in developing country authorship. Developing country representation has risen fastest at journals ranked 100th or lower, while it has barely increased in journals ranked 25th or higher. Regression analyses suggest that articles by developing country authors are far less likely to be published in top journals even when holding constant article quality (as proxied by citation counts). Similar trends are observed in citation patterns, with articles by authors in the U.S. receiving far more citations, and those by authors in developing countries receiving fewer. These results are consistent with a general increase in the relative supply of research in the rest of the world. But they also indicate authors from developing countries remain excluded from the profession’s top-rated journals and that their research receives less attention from other economists.

Abstract: This research presents OptiPath, a system tailored for optimizing route planning within geospatial big data projects. By harnessing extensive raster data and leveraging cloud computing resources, OptiPath excels in spatial analysis and path optimization for complex geospatial applications. In a case study involving a historical U.S. pipeline project, OptiPath generated 8 optimal paths, each processing 2.50 GB of raster data in an average time of 10 minutes per path. Consequently, the system efficiently processed 20GB of raster data within 1.5 hours. OptiPath accurately computes optimized paths between specified origins and destinations based on user input, aligning closely with actual routes in a time and cost-effective manner. This system’s outstanding performance makes it a valuable asset for diverse and complex route planning projects. OptiPath operates on the New England Research Cloud (NERC), running on Esri’s ArcGIS Enterprise software. Beyond offering an effective, efficient routing solution, OptiPath underscores the immense potential of integrating cloud computing and ESRI’s big data tools for GIS applications.

• Previous draft: Resources for the Future Working Paper 22-25

• Coverage: Urban Institute

Abstract: The changing US energy system raises concerns of job losses among fossil fuel workers. Since these employment impacts vary considerably across the US, policies must be tailored to local contexts. We develop an analytical approach to help policymakers understand the localized opportunities and challenges that energy workers may face. We first estimate the exposure of local labor markets to job displacement in fossil fuel extraction, transportation, processing, and electricity industries. We then assess the extent to which the skill sets of fossil energy workers match similarly-paying jobs with high growth in their local labor markets. We document substantial differences across local labor markets in terms of fossil fuel workforce demographics, their current job skills, and how well these skills align with those for in-demand jobs over the coming decade. We find that other than most technical skills, skills important for fossil fuel jobs typically differ from those necessary for fast-growing occupations with similar levels of pay, many of which require extensive service-oriented and management skills. Our methodology and associated analytical tools can be readily used to provide locally tailored information about skills mismatches between the existing fossil energy workforce and in-demand sectors, suggesting areas where workforce development may bear the most fruit.

• Revised version of MPP Thesis at Harvard Kennedy School, awarded the Harvard Environmental Economics Program Prize for the Best Paper by a Master’s Degree Student, Taubman Center Urban Prize for best paper on domestic urban issues in the US,  and Harvard Kennedy School International and Global Affairs Award for Best Integration of Disparate Quantitative Data in a MPP thesis (previously titled “Spatial-Skills Mismatch in the Decarbonization Job Transition: A Framework for Policy Responses”)

• Previous draft: NBER Working Paper 29548

• Coverage: VoxEU, PIIE, AEIdeas

Abstract: We study the productivity-pay relationship in the United States and Canada along two dimensions. The first is divergence: the degree to which productivity has grown faster than pay. The second is delinkage: the degree to which incremental increases in the rate of productivity growth translate into incremental increases in the rate of growth of pay, holding all else equal. In both countries there has been divergence: the pay of typical workers has grown substantially more slowly than average labour productivity over recent decades, driven by both rising labour income inequality and a declining labour share of income. Even as the levels of productivity and pay have grown further apart, however, we find evidence for a substantial degree of linkage between productivity growth and pay growth: in both countries, periods with faster productivity growth rates have been periods with faster rates of growth of the pay of average and typical workers, holding all else equal. This linkage appears somewhat stronger in the US than in Canada. Overall, our findings lead us to tentatively conclude that policies or trends which lead to incremental increases in productivity growth, particularly in large relatively closed economies like the USA, will tend to raise middle class incomes. At the same time, other factors orthogonal (i.e. statistically independent) to productivity growth have been driving productivity and typical pay further apart, emphasizing that much of the evolution in middle class living standards will depend on measures bearing on relative incomes.