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Me (David Lipschitz):-
Assuming Africa south of the Sahara could build enough refineries, does Africa south of the Sahara have enough oil to become self sufficient?
Gemini
Mathematically and geologically, the answer is a resounding yes—but with a significant logistical asterisk.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently produces far more crude oil than it consumes. The reason the region lacks "self-sufficiency" today isn't a lack of oil; it's a "refining gap" where crude is exported to Europe or Asia and finished gasoline/diesel is bought back at a premium.
The Numbers (Approximate 2024–2026 Data)
To understand the potential for self-sufficiency, look at the balance of production versus consumption:
Total Production: SSA produces roughly 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day (bpd). Nigeria and Angola alone account for a huge portion of this.
Total Consumption: SSA consumes approximately 2.2 to 2.5 million barrels per day.
The Surplus: On paper, the region has a surplus of about 1.2 to 1.5 million bpd.
If every drop of oil produced in sub-Saharan Africa stayed in the region and was refined locally, the continent would not only be self-sufficient but would be a major net exporter of finished fuels.
The Barriers to "True" Self-Sufficiency
While the oil exists, three major hurdles stand in the way of turning that "yes" into reality:
1. The Refining Mismatch
Most existing refineries in SSA are "simple" hydroskimming plants. They aren't designed to handle the specific "sweet" or "sour" grades of oil found in neighboring countries.
Progress: The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria (650,000 bpd capacity) is the first "mega-project" designed to bridge this gap. If 3 or 4 more "Dangote-scale" refineries were built across East and Southern Africa, the technical capacity for self-sufficiency would be met.
2. Infrastructure & The "Disconnected Continent"
It is currently often cheaper and faster to ship oil from Nigeria to Western Europe than it is to move it to Ethiopia or South Africa.
Without a massive network of cross-border pipelines or a vastly improved rail system, a refinery in West Africa cannot easily serve a "gas station" in East Africa.
3. Financing & The Energy Transition
Building a modern refinery costs between $10 billion and $20 billion. Global lenders (like the World Bank or IMF) have largely stopped funding new fossil fuel infrastructure in favor of green energy. This forces African nations to rely on private equity or sovereign loans (often from China), which come with high interest rates and complex geopolitical strings.
Summary Table: SSA Energy Balance:
Gemini Continued...
The Verdict: Sub-Saharan Africa has more than enough "black gold" to power itself. Self-sufficiency is a political and engineering choice, not a geological limitation.
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