Applications of Probabilistic Engineering in the Food Industry

By Dr. J. Antonio Torres

Oregon State University, USA

March 15th, 2016 at 9:00 am (Mexico City, MX; UTC -06:00)

Process engineering decisions should consider the risk and consequences when making processing, packaging, storage, shelf-life and other decisions or recommendations affecting the safety, quality and cost of foods. This webinar focuses on the use of a risk analysis approach when making these decisions. Every decision has a probability of being “inadequate” if calculation procedures do not consider the impact of the variability of environmental conditions (temperature, RH, etc.) and of the parameters of the food engineering models used. The statistical variability of these parameters generates an uncertainty in all estimations of product safety and quality. Regulatory agencies and processors should know the probability that a product will meet safety requirements, quality expectations and product shelf-life. The analysis of food production to food consumption requires the inclusion of multiple factors often described by different parametric (uniform, normal, PERT, and many others) and non-parametric statistical models (e.g., a list of values). In this webinar, we will use Monte Carlo simulations as a non-deterministic calculation strategy applied to product safety and quality cases including one covering product harvest to final consumption. The advantages of a risk analysis will be demonstrated using Microsoft Excel^TM to establish the fill setting in a packaging line. Implications on food process engineering education will be highlighted too.