Conclusion
Author's (Interim) conclusion
My view on what might have happened has changed several times since starting the research, each new piece of evidence has called into question what I'd previously accepted as fact. The research will continue so my conclusions here should only be considered as a beginning of an explanation.
Zemke, on observing the cloud from 14000 feet, separated his forces to attack Vendôme and Le Breuil. Major Goodfleisch would have had to descend to less than 11500 feet to see the target, but that was ok, a dive bombing attack from 8000 feet is reasonable. There wasn't any flak or enemy aircraft so he could take his time to plan the attack. Having bombed the dispersal areas and a hanger they went looking for targets of opportunity to strafe. Aware that the railway station was a viable target once he'd got below the cloud base at 11500 feet he led White flight to attack it. Robert Jenkins aircraft still had its bombs attached to the underwing pylons as did two other aircraft that later jettisoned their bombs in the North Sea.
The German map shows what I presume to be White flight approaching Blois from the noth-west. I'd thought they'd been following the Loire but I now believe they were following the railway track from the north-east. White flight were just 800 metres (half a mile) from the railway station when they were targeted by the flak and had to take evasive action.
The German head doctor described Robert's wound as being in his right thigh, that's the leg the furthest from the German guns and it could only happen if Robert Jenkins in White two was hit from underneath. Beneath the pilot in a P47 is his parachute, then the auxilliary fuel tank. The main fuel tank is in front of the pilot and below his feet but there's a space between the two, just below the pilot's thighs. Below the fuel tanks is the air intake that feeds the turbocharger and the two air intakes that feed the intercooler. The aircraft was hit by a high explosive round (not a tracer round) below the pilot's seat, the explosion destroyed the air intakes and punctured the fuel tanks. The armour was sufficient to stop a 13mm machine gun round but a 25mm (1 inch) high explosive shell from an anti-aircraft gun was another matter. The fuel tank armour and Robert's folded parachute stopped him from being killed instantly but a piece of shrapnel went up between the two tanks and hit the back of his right thigh.
The image, taken from the AAF 'Training manual for the Thunderbolt 50-5' shows (in blue) the angles from which the pilot is protected. The fuel tanks, engine and turbo, despite their bulk, don't give adequate protection.
Donald Goodfleisch and Roach Stewart (White one and four) aborted the attack and turned back towards the north-west but Robert, flying a damaged plane continued in a straight line towards the west. The intercooler, starved of air to cool it, allowed hot air to go to the carburettor which caused the engine to lose power. Meanwhile the leaking fuel was being sucked into the damaged air intake sending liquid, rather than atomised fuel to the cylinders. It was also leaking into the bottom of the airframe where it was pushed aft by the airflow. We'd normally imagine the white smoke/vapour seen by Becker to be water vapour, but of course this is an air cooled engine. I suspect the white smoke was in fact unburnt fuel leaking out of the back of the aircraft from the damaged fuel tank. The liquid fuel reaching the cylinders wouldn't have been completely burnt on the combustion stroke, some of it, still burning, would have been pushed out on the exhaust stroke which would explain the flame seen from the turbo exhaust seen by Becker.
The German map shows a second Thunderbolt accompanying Robert, I believe this to be Marvin Becker. He and Heaton heard Robert saying he would bail out. Robert took his hands off the stick to undo the seat harness and open the canopy but the aircraft with its damaged aerodynamics went nose down. Robert quickly reacted to the problem and pulled back on the stick but was now too low to jump. The ground was coming up fast, he could see he would hit the village so banked the aircraft to starboard to avoid hitting it. He jumped just above the trees, the parachute didn't have time to deploy completely and may already have been damaged by the flak. The aircraft hit the trees, the wings were torn off first, the bombs separated from their mounts and were propelled to both sides of the aircraft, they exploded on the forest floor. The tail broke off and was left slightly behind as the fuselage and engine continued forwards. The 570 litres of fuel and 3400 rounds of ammunition in the magazines would have exploded on, or shortly after impact. Becker, after witnessing the crash, turned back to rejoin the rest of White flight.
56th Fighter Group arrived back at Boxted at 9:40 pm (using British double summer time that was used in 1944 and 1945), 8:40 pm BST as we would know it today. It was a Saturday evening in summer time. Marvin Becker had flown a 2300HP aircraft for 4 hours, he'd been repeatedly shot at, shaken and deafened, he'd watched a fellow pilot die. He mistakenly said that the problem had started before a dive-bombing run but related correctly what had happened once they were heading west. Becker was was the closest to the crash and an experienced pilot, he'd have seen that Robert bailed out too low and wouldn't have survived. I suspect that on landing, he agreed with Goodfleisch and Roach to state that he didn't see a parachute to avoid giving false hope to the family. Heaton however, wasn't aware of their discussion and simply stated what he'd seen.
This version was the base of what was written into the mission summary but Heaton's statement was also taken into account when the MACR was typed the next day by Nathan S. Neu. The MACR was used as a basis for the first telegram and letter sent to Robert's parents.