Climate change impact on vegetation

The Multiple Potential Natural Vegetation (MPNV) estimation can serve as a tool for climate change impact assessment. Estimating MPNV for different time horizons helps to assess how the vegetation potentiality of our landscapes changes. We have already investigated how this affects the potential impact of climate change on existing natural vegetation stands (Bede-Fazekas et al. 2017). We have also investigated whether these stands are able to adapt to the expected changes and thus how vulnerable they are to climate change altogether (Lepesi et al. 2017). Our results regarding potential impact, adaptation capacity and vulnerability to climate change can be found on the National Adaptation Geo-information System (NAGiS).

Figure. Vulnerability of beech forests to climate change in Hungary. For further details visit the NAGiS portal and the documentation therein.

Our current research tackles methodological questions regarding the use of bioclimatic variables in potential distribution models including MPNV models. The other main research direction in this topic is the detailed investigation of future potential vegetation of Hungary.

References

Bede-Fazekas Á, Czúcz B, Somodi I (2017): Vulnerability of natural landscapes to climate change – a case study of Hungary. Időjárás 121(4): 393–414.

Lepesi N, Bede-Fazekas Á, Czúcz B, Somodi I (2017): Adaptive capacity of climate sensitive habitats to climate change in Hungary. Időjárás 121(4): 415-436.