National scientist and economist, Mr. Raul Fabella commented on the price cap imposed by President Marcos under Executive Order No. 39. He said that the price cap on rice is a stop-gap remedy that does not address the country's rice supply problem. He warned that this “solution” will only buy time but not entirely stop the problem from getting worse. To address this, he suggests for the government to invest in food production.
On July 25, 2023, Mr. Alexander Escucha guested on Pulsong Pinoy with Ben Paypon. Here, he shared his personal insights on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s SONA. He stated that even though he generally agreed with what the President had discussed, there are some statements he would like to clarify.
The statement "Napatunayan natin na kayang maipababa ang presyo ng bigas, karne, isda, gulay, at asukal" (We have proven that we can lower the prices of rice, meat, fish, vegetables, and sugar) is quite misleading. Mr. Escucha pointed out that while it is true that the inflation rate has been decreasing, this does not mean that the prices of these commodities have actually gone down. It simply means that the rate at which their prices are increasing is slowing down. He also makes a good point about the Philippines' economic growth rate. While it is true that the Philippines achieved the highest growth rate of 7.6% last year, this growth rate should be put into perspective. The economy collapsed during the years 2020 and 2021, so the growth rate of 7.6% is only the economy bouncing back to the GDP level before the pandemic hit.
In this article, Mr. Calixto V. Chikiamco detailed the downfall of the revolutionary Left in the Philippines, the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army or CPP-NPA. He attributed this to different reasons, such as the geopolitical climate, their “Operation Ahos,” their involvement in the Plaza Miranda bombing, the Philippines’ government programs, and their own ideological dogmatism. According to Mr. Chikiamco, the presidency of the son of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Sr., is an exclamation point to the demise of the revolutionary Left. He celebrates the death of the old Left, but he expresses his wishes for a new Left to be reborn. He stresses the need for a new Left to struggle with the Right to infuse political dynamism and creative solutions for social and economic issues in Philippine society. He also added that the new Left must be progressive and be on the side of consumers rather than with the monopolists. On the other hand, he states that the Marcos administration can benefit from the death of the Left as it creates favorable political conditions, free from internal security threats, to pursue developmental and pro-market reforms.
Mr. Emmanuel De Dios commented on the state of inflation and debt under the Marcos administration. He claimed that while external factors affected the country’s inflation rates, the government still mishandled the problem. He said that “something extra” was added to the inflation rate and supported this argument by comparing the inflation of the Philippines to its neighboring countries, such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Food prices, specifically sugar and onions, leaped in the latter half of 2022 in the Philippines, when world prices had begun to stabilize. Mr. De Dios stated that these increases were not caused by the war in Ukraine but by the combination of bureaucratic inefficiency and a malign intent on the part of certain agencies. He said that timely importation could have avoided this issue. On the topic of debt, Mr. De Dios does not perceive it to be worrisome. He said that debt is not necessarily wrong, as long as the economy is growing and debt is paid regularly. “Debt is suitable if the growth rate of the country exceeds the interest rates, then debt is not runaway debt, you can stabilize debt,” said De Dios.
On June 21, 2023, Mr. Alexander Escucha and Dr. Emmanuel S. De Dios, the President and a board member of the Institute for Development and Econometric Analysis (IDEA), Inc. joined select members of UP School of Economics Faculty in an insightful discourse regarding the Maharlika Investment Fund. Dr. De Dios argued that the fund violates a fundamental principle of economics and finance, namely the concept of social rate of time preference. The social rate of time preference is a measure of how willing society is to delay current consumption in order to consume more in the future. He pointed out that the Philippines does not have the excess wealth to finance the fund, so it would have to divert money from current needs such as infrastructure and social services to create new corporations. According to Dr. De Dios's calculations, the acceptable future return for the Philippines to postpone consumption today is estimated to be 10-11%, which may be difficult to achieve. He also questioned the claim of the fund's proponents that it would be able to achieve high returns both financially and socially. He argued that social projects should be financed through the normal budget process and not through the Maharlika Investment Fund. Dr. De Dios also warned that the fund could displace private investors, politicize regulatory decisions, and promote cronyism.
Mr. Alexander Escucha shared that he was invited to the hearing for the Maharlika Investment Fund, and had witnessed how it evolved from version one to version four. He pointed out one of the changes the bill has gone through, one of which is the removal of the clause that states that fifty percent of the BSP’s total declared dividends will be remitted after the first two fiscal years upon effectivity. In the discussion, he has delved more into the technical workings involving the financial sector. He implies that the BSP may hinder capital creation for the Maharlika Investment Fund as it may suffer from losses due to certain circumstances which could be a source of concern.
In the segment, Mr. Alexander Escucha discusses the current state of inflation in the Philippines. He presents the report of the Philippines Statistics Authority on inflation and states that the inflation rate is moving in the right direction as it continued to decrease within the period January to May 2023. He also discussed the main sources of deceleration of May 2023 inflation which are gasoline, diesel, and other passenger transport by road. For the inflation rates for food groups, he concluded that even if prices of food have been increasing at a slower pace, they are still rising at an alarming rate. Mr. Escucha also highlighted the impact of inflation on the poorest Filipinos. He mentioned that the bottom 30% of income households are experiencing an average inflation rate of 8.4% from January to May 2023, which is higher than the national average of 7.5% during the same period. This means that these households are struggling to make ends meet as the prices of basic goods and services continue to rise.
In a recent interview on Pasada sa Teleradyo, Mr. Alexander Escucha discussed the current state of the national debt of the Philippines and its impact on the economy. The Philippines' debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 60%, which is higher than the average for developing countries. However, Mr. Escucha said that this is not necessarily a cause for alarm. He said that having debt is not necessarily good or bad and that the context is much more important when evaluating it. Relating to this, he does not believe that the debt-to-GDP ratio ranking of the countries is relevant and places more importance on how efficiently the government uses these loans. He said that if the debt is used to invest in infrastructure or other productive assets, then it can be beneficial to the economy. However, if the money is used to finance unnecessary consumption or is lost to corruption, then it can be harmful to the economy. Ultimately, Mr. Escucha said that the debt of the country must be evaluated by the use of the debt, the quality of the debt, and the capacity of the country to pay. Majority of the Philippines’ debt is long term and domestic, making its quality of debt relatively good as it keeps the country protected from shocks. Mr. Escucha also keeps a positive outlook on the country’s capability to sustain its debt as he expects for the economy to grow 6.5% to 8% in the next five years.
Mr. Escucha comments on a statement made by the Finance chief that the Philippines could increase infrastructure spending to 12% of GDP as early as next year if the sovereign wealth fund goes as planned. He said, “The government should determine which projects would be funded beyond the current spending plan because doubling it would not be easy.” He also added, “We need to see how much of these are already shovel-ready, and how much will need gestation or project development time.”
Mr. Calixto V. Chikiamco expresses his disappointment in the current lack of game-changing reforms under the presidency of Marcos Jr. as none of them address the big binding constraints to Philippine growth. He lists down reforms the government could make, such as the expanded Apprenticeship Law, easing of tariffs and quantitative restrictions, The Tree Growing Bill, the Forest Cadaster Bill, and the Salt Industry Development Act. He claimed that if President Marcos Jr. wanted to attain the same or surpass the economic achievements of the previous administration, he must do more to have game-changing economic legislation passed. “Merging the DBP with Land Bank and organizing an ill-conceived Maharlika Investment Fund is not going to be up there with the historic economic achievements of President Duterte like the Rice Tariffication Law or the Public Service Act Amendment” he added.
Economic experts and other analysts weighed in on bills seeking to relax economic provisions on January 26, 2023. Mr. Raul Fabella, chairman of IDEA Inc., criticized the 1987 charter. He said that it shows the distrust of its farmers in future governments to act wisely. He proposed the removal of certain provisions, such as Section 11, Article 12, which states that Filipinos must own at least 60% of a Philippine business. “It restricts foreign ownership to 40% capital, thus minority interest. The new PSA [Public Service Act] law has reduced the compass of this restriction, but I think we still need to move further than the law,” he remarked.
Mr. Chikiamco, a board member of IDEA Inc. was also present. He asserted that it is now time to amend or revise the 1987 constitution. “The protectionist economic model it espoused promoted a rent-seeking system which manipulates public policy to increase profits for the few,” he argued. “It is not a model that encourages sustainable growth for the economy as a whole. As such, our economy has fallen farther behind its neighboring peers.”
National Scientist Raul Fabella said the urgency to pass the Maharlika Fund bill is "suspicious" and "disturbing" as the talks of the sovereign wealth fund only gained traction during the Marcos administration. He said that the Philippines has a history of funds disappearing due to the weak rule of law, which could put the Maharlika Fund at risk. Fabella cited the Malampaya fund, which was embroiled in the fertilizer scam, as an example. According to him, the Maharlika Fund is beyond repair and should be scrapped. He also suggested that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas should be allowed to grow its capitalization to P200 billion first which was mandated by law in 2018, before it should be required to fund Maharlika.